HUF: Lira Stability Aiding HUF Recovery, Russia-Ukraine Geopolitics in Focus
Mar-19 12:23
The partial recovery in the lira has helped stabilise broader risk sentiment, allowing the likes of HUF and PLN to recover well from this morning’s lows. Improving sentiment is evidenced by the resumption of gains for European equities and the uptick in EURUSD off session lows (albeit the pair remains 0.3% lower at typing), both of which will be supporting CEE currencies.
- EURHUF had spiked around 0.8% earlier today, taking the cross above initial resistance at the 20-day EMA, but gains have since moderated to 0.2%. From a technical perspective, the trend structure in EURHUF remains bearish following the latest price sequence of lower lows and lower highs. Support to watch is at the 395.00 handle.
- Yesterday’s call between Trump and Putin brought slight progress towards a peace deal between Ukraine and Russia - which should be positive for the CEE region - though Russia refused to agree to a full 30-day ceasefire, highlighting that any lasting peace deal remains some way off.
- Additionally, CNN reported that Ukraine and Russia have since exchanged aerial attacks overnight, with the Russian attacks targeting civilian infrastructure including a hospital and an electricity system powering the railways in the central Dnipropetrovsk region. "Today, Putin effectively rejected the proposal for a full ceasefire," Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said. Zelenskiy said he’ll speak by phone with US President Trump today.
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SONIA: 3.5k More Of the SFIM5 95.6 Put
Feb-17 12:20
SFIM5 95.60 put, bought for 2 in 3.5k.
- Now 7.5k total for the session.
GERMANY: Nagel Sees 1.5pp Negative Growth Impact for Germany In Tariff Scenario
Feb-17 12:10
ECB's Nagel expects the German economy to "suffer considerably" from the implementation of US tariffs per US President Trump's election campaign (tariffs on imports from China at 60 percent, while products from Germany and other countries would face 10 percent), according to his speech today in Frankfurt.
- Nagel cites a Bundesbank scenario analysis, concluding a negative impact on GDP of a cumulative 1.5pp by 2027.
- Models are more inconclusive on inflation though, with Nagel noting one only sees slight effects while another one points towards clear upwards pressure.
- We'd note that actual tariff proposals by the US administration have so far come short of the election campaign plans.
- More broadly, the uncertainty posed by tariff risks has been a common theme in commentary from other ECB officials:
- Bank of Italy Governor Panetta over the weekend: "The tariffs could produce upward pressures linked to a depreciation of the euro against the US dollar and to possible retaliatory measures from the EU [...] However, these effects could be offset by a slowdown in the global economy and by China diverting its tariffed goods to European markets'”. The net impact of US tariffs would be limited or even 'slightly negative'.
- ECB President Lagarde on Feb 10: "Greater friction in global trade would make the euro area inflation outlook more uncertain".
- ECB Chief Econ Lane on Feb 5: "Risks to economic growth remain tilted to the downside. In addition to trade policy uncertainty, lower confidence could prevent consumption and investment from recovering as fast as expected".
OUTLOOK: Price Signal Summary - Bund Futures Pierces A Trendline Support
Feb-17 11:59
- In the FI space, Bund futures are trading lower and in the process have pierced an important short-term support at 132.05, a trendline drawn from the Jan 15 low. A clear break of this line would strengthen a bearish theme and signal scope for an extension towards 131.59 next, the 61.8% retracement of the Jan 14 - Feb 5 bull leg. Below 131.59, lies 131.00, the Jan 25 low and a key support. For bulls, a resumption of gains would refocus attention on the bull trigger at 133.71, Feb 5 high.
- A bull cycle in Gilt futures remains in play and the latest pullback appears corrective for now. Last Thursday’s gains are a positive development and appears to be a bullish engulfing candle. A resumption of gains would open 94.35, the Feb 6 high and a bull trigger. Clearance of this level would open 94.75, the 76.4% retracement of the Dec 3 - Jan 13 bear leg. The next firm support to watch lies at 91.52, the Jan 24 low.
