EU FINANCIALS: Lloyds (LLOY) - Q4 Results Headlines
Credit neutral. £700m additional motor finance provisions, bringing the total to £1.15bn. This is higher than expected and is the main driver for the profit miss. The revenue side looks fine, costs slightly above expectations. 2025 expectations for NII are also reasonably positive.
"*LLOYDS SEES 2025 UNDERLYING NET INTEREST INCOME OF C.£13.5B
*LLOYDS 4Q STATUTORY PRETAX PROFIT GBP824M, EST. GBP1.03B
*LLOYDS 4Q OPERATING COSTS GBP2.45B, EST. GBP2.4B
*LLOYDS 4Q NET INTEREST MARGIN 2.97%, EST. 2.97%" - bbg
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BTP TECHS: (H5) Resistance At The 20-Day EMA
BTP TECHS: (H5) Resistance At The 20-Day EMA
- RES 4: 122.85 High Dec 11
- RES 3: 120.98 61.8% retracement of the Dec 11 - Jan 13 bear leg
- RES 2: 120.45 High Jan 2
- RES 1: 119.32/35 20-day EMA / High Jan 17
- PRICE: 119.24 @ Close Jan 20
- SUP 1: 118.27/117.16 Low Jan 16 / 13 and the bear trigger
- SUP 2: 116.59 76.4% retrace of the Jun - Dec ‘24 bull cycle (cont)
- SUP 3: 116.07 Low Jul 8 ‘24 (cont)
- SUP 4: 115.45 Low Jul 3 ‘24 (cont)
The current bear cycle in BTP futures remains in play and last week’s fresh cycle low reinforces current conditions. However, from a short-term perspective, the latest rally highlights a corrective phase. Resistance to watch is 119.32, the 20-day EMA. A clear break of this level would signal scope for a stronger retracement. The bear trigger has been defined at 117.16, the Jan 13 low.
UK DATA: Upside surprise to private wage data
Upside surprise again to private regular AWE at 6.0%Y/Y in the 3-months to Nov (5.8% expected, 5.37% prior).
- This has also helped pull the whole economy ex bonus number above the 5.5% expected to come in at 5.6%.
- There must be some downside on the bonuses here - as the total whole economy AWE (inc bonus) is actually a tenth lower than expected at 5.6%/Y in the 3-months to end Nov,
- The unemployment rate ticked up to 4.4% (rounded to 1dp) from 4.3% as expected.
- Very little reaction in GBP FX to that release, GBPUSD initially moved a few pips lower and is now a couple of pips above pre-data levels.
EURJPY TECHS: Bear Threat Remains Present
- RES 4: 165.43 High Nov 8
- RES 3: 164.90 High Dec 30 and a key short-term resistance
- RES 2: 164.55 High Jan 7
- RES 1: 162.31/89 High Jan 20 / High Jan 15
- PRICE: 161.29 @ 07:03 GMT Jan 21
- SUP 1: 159.73 Low Jan 17
- SUP 2: 159.51 61.8% retracement of the Dec 3 - 30 bull cycle
- SUP 3: 158.67 Low Dec 11
- SUP 4: 158.24 76.4% retracement of the Dec 3 - 30 bull cycle
A short-term bear cycle in EURJPY remains intact. Last week’s move down marked an extension of the current downtrend. The cross has pierced support at 160.04, the Jan 13 low. A clear break of this level would strengthen a bearish threat. The next price point to watch is 159.51, a Fibonacci retracement. The cross has recovered from its recent lows, a move above 162.89, the Jan 15 high, would reinstate the recent bullish theme.
