LNG: India LNG Imports Rise but Consumpton Falls Year on Year in August: PPAC
India’s LNG consumption in August rose 1.03% from July but fell 0.8% on the year to 5.792bcm, according to data from the Petroleum Planning and Analysis Cell.
- Imports increase 3.3% on the month to 2.794bcm, representing a rise of 2.4% on the year.
- Net production was down 1.0% on the month and 3.6% lower on the year at 2.999bcm.
- Increased interest from LNG buyers in India in early September was driven by lower Asian LNG prices making the fuel more competitive against alternatives, according to Bloomberg.
- India’s publicly stated aim of increasing the share of natural gas to 15% by 2030 will only be met if the power sector becomes a major gas consumer, OIES said. This will happen only in a prolonged low gas price scenario given the price-sensitive power sector and with renewable energy growth.
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USDCAD TECHS: Corrective Cycle
- RES 4: 1.4048 High May 22 2020
- RES 3: 1.3977 High Oct 13, 2022
- RES 2: 1.3856/3946 High Aug 6 / 5 and bull trigger
- RES 1: 1.3755 20-day EMA
- PRICE: 1.3708 @ 16:14 BST Aug 16
- SUP 1: 1.3689/57 Low Aug 14 / Low Jul 17
- SUP 2: 1.3589 Low Jun 11 and a key support
- SUP 3: 1.3547 Low Apr 9
- SUP 4: 1.3478 Low Apr 4
The trend condition in USDCAD remains bullish and the latest pullback still appears to be a correction. However, note that price has breached an important support at 1.3730, the 50-day EMA. An extension lower would undermine the bull theme and highlight scope for a deeper retracement towards 1.3657, the Jul 17 low. On the upside, a confirmed reversal higher would refocus attention on 1.3946, the Aug 5 high and key resistance.
AUDUSD TECHS: Has Breached Moving Average Resistance
- RES 4: 0.6799 High Jul 11 and key resistance
- RES 3: 0.6744 High Jul 18
- RES 2: 0.6693 76.4% retracement of the Jul 11 - Aug 5 bear leg
- RES 1: 0.6643 High Aug 14
- PRICE: 0.6641 @ 16:12 BST Aug 16
- SUP 1: 0.6565 Low Aug 12
- SUP 2: 0.6508/6350 Low Aug 8/ 5 and the bear trigger
- SUP 3: 0.6339 Low Nov 10’23
- SUP 4: 0.6315 Low Oct 31 ‘23
AUDUSD continues to trade at its recent highs. From a short-term perspective, the latest recovery still appears to be a correction, however, price has traded through both the 20- and 50-day EMAs. A continuation higher would undermine a bearish theme and signal scope for stronger gains, towards 0.6693, a Fibonacci retracement. For bears, a reversal would refocus attention on 0.6530, the Aug 5 low.
COMMODITIES: Gold Soars to Fresh Record High Above $2,500
- Gold soared to a fresh all-time-high on Friday, notably rising above the psychological $2,500/oz mark. The rise follows US data indicating inflation slowed last month while retail sales surged, easing recession worries while strengthening expectations the Federal Reserve can begin easing in September.
- "Gold's data dependency remains paramount, as jobs, inflation, and economic data all have the potential to clarify the Fed's path and future monetary policy," a strategist at RBC Capital Markets, said in a note.
- The technical break above $2483.7, the Jul 17 high and bull trigger resumes the uptrend. The initial target of note is $2528.4, the 3.00 projection of the Oct 6 - 27 - Nov 13 price swing.
- WTI crude futures have weakened 1.7% on the session, keeping the front-month contract roughly flat week-on-week. Notably, Commerzbank revised their oil price forecast downwards on weak China demand with Brent at $85/bbl and WTI at $80/bbl by year end.
- OPEC+ has succeeded in fine tuning its supply to support prices, but planned cut unwinding could create downward pressure, according to Platts.
- For natural gas, Henry Hub has pulled back to its lowest level since Aug. 9. Indications of cooling weather, robust production levels, and a continued - albeit shrinking - storage surplus have added pressure.
