JAPAN DATA: Local Investors Buy Offshore Bonds In Size, But Dump Global Equities
The highlight of last week's offshore investment flows for Japan, was a surge in purchases of offshore bonds. The ¥1753bn in net purchases was the largest weekly flow since mid September last year. This marks the fourth out of the last five weeks that we have seen positive flows from Japan investors to offshore bonds. This fits with an improved global bond return backdrop, as US yields have stabilized, although such returns remain below 2024 highs.
- In contrast, on the equity side, we saw sharp net selling of offshore equities by local investors. This ended a run of 8 weeks of consecutive buying by local investors. Cumulative outflows are still positive YTD for 2025, despite last week's strong net selling.
- In terms of offshore investor inflows into Japan, aggregate moves were moderate last week, but we saw net selling of both local bonds and stocks. For bonds this ended a run of three straight weeks of inflows. For stocks, cumulative offshore inflows in 2025 to date are close to flat.
Table 1: Japan Offshore Weekly Investment Flows
| Billion Yen | Week ending Feb 7 | Prior Week |
| Foreign Buying Japan Stocks | -384.4 | -315.2 |
| Foreign Buying Japan Bonds | -187.2 | 724.5 |
| Japan Buying Foreign Bonds | 1752.9 | -1458.4 |
| Japan Buying Foreign Stocks | -1267.4 | 199.2 |
Source: MNI - Market News/Bloomberg
Want to read more?
Find more articles and bullets on these widgets:
Historical bullets
AUSSIE BONDS: ACGB Dec-34 Auction Result
The AOFM sells A$800mn of the 3.50% 21 December 2034 bond, issue #TB168:
- Average Yield (%): 4.6378 (prev. 4.4329)
- High Yield (%): 4.640 (prev. 4.4350)
- Bid/Cover: 2.8875x (prev. 2.8375x)
- Amount Allotted at Highest Accepted Yield as % of Amount Bid at that Yield (%): 49.1 (prev. 17.2)
- Bidders: 34 (prev. 34), 17 (prev. 19) successful, 10 (prev. 9) allocated in full
ASIA STOCKS: Foreign Investors Keep Selling Asian Equities To Start The Year
Outflows in all regions on Tuesday with Taiwan continuing to decent selling following chips restrictions being announced from the US, however, while Nvidia has announced they will plan to build a headquarters in Taiwan. India has had the worst start to the year with 2.6b of outflows so far.
- South Korea: Recorded outflows of -$148m yesterday, contributing to a 5-day total of -$287m. YTD flows are flat at $0. The 5-day average is -$57m, worse than the 20-day average of -$70m and the 100-day average of -$146m.
- Taiwan: Experienced outflows of -$352m yesterday, resulting in a 5-day total of -$3.87b. YTD flows are negative at -$2.57b. The 5-day average is -$773m, significantly worse than the 20-day average of -$188m and the 100-day average of -$126m.
- India: Posted outflows of -$495m yesterday, contributing to a 5-day total of -$2.06b. YTD flows are negative at -$2.62b. The 5-day average is -$411m, worse than the 20-day average of -$223m and the 100-day average of -$49m.
- Indonesia: Registered outflows of -$39m yesterday, with the 5-day total at -$94m. YTD flows are negative at -$244m. The 5-day average is -$19m, slightly better than the 20-day average of -$34m, but worse than the 100-day average of +$5m.
- Thailand: Recorded outflows of -$63m yesterday, resulting in a 5-day total of -$188m. YTD flows are negative at -$122m. The 5-day average is -$38m, worse than the 20-day average of -$11m and the 100-day average of -$6m.
- Malaysia: Posted outflows of -$55m yesterday, contributing to a 5-day total of -$203m. YTD flows are negative at -$261m. The 5-day average is -$41m, worse than the 20-day average of -$26m and the 100-day average of -$15m
- Philippines: Recorded outflows of -$15m yesterday, resulting in a 5-day total of -$38m. YTD flows are negative at -$52m. The 5-day average is -$8m, worse than the 20-day average of -$7m but equal to the 100-day average of $0m.
Table 1: EM Asia Equity Flows
JGBS: Futures Uptick, US Tsys Directionless Ahead Of CPI
In Tokyo morning trade, JGB futures are slightly stronger, +3 compared to settlement levels.
- M2 & M3 Money Stock 1.3% y/y and 0.8% y/y respectively in December.
- Overnight, US yields finished slightly mixed after US PPI printed softer than expected. They were lower at the front end but higher at the back end. The 10-year yield finished at 4.79%.
- Focus turns to tomorrow's headline CPI inflation data for December where rental inflation is expected to accelerate to an average figure that firmly rounds to 0.3% M/M in December. Core goods inflation will be closely looked at amidst heavy focus on potential tariffs under the second Trump administration but also with a further near-term dampening factor from continued US dollar appreciation. Fed Beige Book is released at 1400ET.
- Today, the local calendar will also see Machine Tool Orders data alongside BoJ Rinban Operations covering 1-10-year and 25-year+ JGBs.
