SCHATZ TECHS: (M5) Bull Cycle Extends
* RES 4: 107.120 High Mar 4 and key resistance * RES 3: 107.000 Round number resistance * RES 2: 106...
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GBPUSD TECHS: Bull Cycle Remains In Play
- RES 4: 1.2853 2.0% 10-dma envelope
- RES 3: 1.2811 High Dec 6 ‘24
- RES 2: 1.2767 50.0% retracement of the Sep 26 ‘24 - Jan 13 bear leg
- RES 1: 1.2691 High Feb 24
- PRICE: 1.2637 @ 06:24 GMT Feb 26
- SUP 1: 1.2563 Low Feb 19
- SUP 2: 1.2528 50-day EMA
- SUP 3: 1.2440 Low Feb 13
- SUP 4: 1.2333 Low Feb 11 and a key support
The trend condition in GBPUSD remains bullish and the pair is holding on to its recent gains. The latest recovery confirms a resumption of the uptrend that started Jan 13 and maintains the current sequence of higher highs and higher lows. An extension would strengthen the bullish condition and open 1.2767, the 50.0% retracement of the Sep 26 ‘24 - Jan 13 bear leg. Initial firm support to watch is 1.2528, the 50-day EMA.
LOOK AHEAD: UK Timeline of Key Events (GMT Times)
| Date | UK | Period | Event |
| 26-Feb | 1630 | BOE's Dhingra on Trade fragmentation and monetary policy | |
| 28-Feb | 0700 | BOE's Ramsden on MonPol in geopolitical fragmentation | |
| 03-Mar | 0930 | Jan | BOE Lending to Individuals/ M4 |
| 03-Mar | 0930 | Feb | S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (Final) |
| 04-Mar | 0001 | Feb | BRC Monthly Shop Price Index |
| 05-Mar | 0930 | Feb | S&P Global Services/ Composite PMI (Final) |
| 06-Mar | 0930 | Feb | Decision Maker Panel data |
| 06-Mar | 0930 | Feb | S&P Global/CIPS Construction PMI |
| 07-Mar | 1500 | BOE's Mann lecture at RBNZ on 'holding anchor' | |
| 11-Mar | 0001 | Feb | BRC-KPMG Shop Sales Monitor |
| 12-Mar | 0730 | DMO propose calendar for first 3 weeks of FY25/26 | |
| 14-Mar | 0700 | Jan | GDP/ Trade / Services/ Production/ Construction |
| 14-Mar | 0730 | DMO calendar for first 3 weeks of FY 25/26 confirmed | |
| 18-Mar | 0930 | Consumer Price inflation weight update | |
| 19-Mar | 0001 | Feb | Brightmine pay deals for whole economy |
| 20-Mar | 0700 | Jan/Feb | Labour Market Survey |
| 20-Mar | 1200 | Bank Of England Interest Rate |
BOBL TECHS: (H5) Short-Term Gains Appear Corrective
- RES 4: 118.258 61.8% retracement of the Dec 2 - Jan 14 bear leg
- RES 3: 117.980 High Feb 3 / 5 and a reversal trigger
- RES 2: 117.600 High Feb 13 and a key short-term resistance
- RES 1: 117.570 High Feb 25
- PRICE: 117.430 @ 06:02 GMT Feb 26
- SUP 1: 116.870 Low Feb 19 and a short-term bear trigger
- SUP 2: 116.700 Low Jan 30
- SUP 3: 116.550 Low Jan 24
- SUP 4: 116.280 Low Jan 14 / 15 and key support
A bear threat in Bobl futures remains present despite the latest recovery - a correction. The contract has traded above the 20-day EMA and attention is on key short-term resistance at 117.600, the Feb 13 high. Clearance of this level would undermine the bearish theme and signal scope for a stronger recovery. On the downside, the short-term bear trigger has been defined at 116.870, the Feb 19 low. A break would resume the bear cycle.
