US 10YR FUTURE TECHS: (M5) Bull Cycle Remains In Play
* RES 4: 111-22+ High Dec 3 '24 and a key resistance * RES 3: 111-00 Round number resistance * RES 2...
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US 10YR FUTURE TECHS: (H5) Approaching The 50-Day EMA
- RES 4: 110-25 High Dec 12
- RES 3: 110-19 76.4% retracement of the Dec 6 - Jan 13 bear leg.
- RES 2: 109-31 High Dec 18
- RES 1: 109-12+ 50-day EMA
- PRICE: 109-11 @ 11:21 GMT Jan 27
- SUP 1: 108-00/107-06 Low Jan 16 / 13 and the bear trigger
- SUP 2: 107-04 Low Apr 25 ‘24 and a key support
- SUP 3: 107-00 Round number support
- SUP 4: 106-11 2.00 proj of the Oct 1 - 14 - 16 price swing
The medium-term trend condition in Treasury futures is down, however a bullish short-term cycle highlights an ongoing corrective phase and the contract is trading higher today. Attention is on 109-12+, the 50-day EMA. A clear break of this EMA is required to strengthen a bullish theme. This would open 109-31, the Dec 18 high. The bear trigger is unchanged at 107-06, the Jan 13 low. Initial support has been defined at 108-00, the Jan 16 low.
LOOK AHEAD: Monday Data Calendar:Regional Fed Data, Home Sales, 2Y/5Y Note Sales
- US Data/Speaker Calendar (prior, estimate)
- 27-Jan 0830 Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index (-.12, -.06)
- 27-Jan 1000 New Home Sales (664k, 672k), MoM (5.9%, 6.6%)
- 27-Jan 1030 Dallas Fed Mfg Activity (3.4, -3.0)
- 27-Jan 1130 US Tsy $69B 2Y note (91282CMH1) & $72B 26W bill auctions
- 27-Jan 1300 US Tsy $72B 5Y note (91282CMG3) & $84B 13W bill auctions
US TSY FUTURES: Net Longs Added In Most Contracts On Friday
OI data points to net long setting in all contracts outside of UXY (which saw modest net short cover) during Friday’s rally.
- The largest DV01 equivalent moves came in TY & US futures, with a net ~$8mn of DV01 equivalent exposure added across the curve.
| 24-Jan-25 | 23-Jan-25 | Daily OI Change | OI DV01 Equivalent Change ($) |
TU | 4,221,630 | 4,203,828 | +17,802 | +656,461 |
FV | 6,253,662 | 6,216,042 | +37,620 | +1,568,566 |
TY | 4,818,301 | 4,765,056 | +53,245 | +3,429,365 |
UXY | 2,281,021 | 2,285,725 | -4,704 | -413,296 |
US | 1,953,502 | 1,932,318 | +21,184 | +2,670,724 |
WN | 1,783,162 | 1,782,445 | +717 | +136,628 |
|
| Total | +125,864 | +8,048,450 |
