BUND TECHS: (M5) Bull Cycle Remains In Play

The current bearish trend condition in WTI futures remains intact and this week’s fresh short-term cycle lows reinforces current conditions. Recent weakness has resulted in a clear breach of support at $70.20, the Feb 6 low. This confirmed a resumption of the downtrend that started Jan 15 and has paved the way for an extension towards $66.41, the Dec 6 ‘24 low. Key short-term pivot resistance is seen at $71.05, the 50-day EMA. The recent pullback in Gold appears to be a correction. The move through the 20-day EMA does signal scope for an extension towards the next important support around the 50-day EMA, at $2812.4. However, this week’s gains are a positive development and potentially an early reversal signal. A stronger rally would refocus attention on the next objective at $2962.2, a Fibonacci projection. This would also open the $3000.0 handle.

• WTI Crude down $0.78 or -1.14% at $67.45
• Natural Gas down $0.1 or -2.28% at $4.256
• Gold spot up $0.68 or +0.02% at $2919.07
• Copper up $20.85 or +4.58% at $476.2
• Silver up $0.34 or +1.06% at $32.3215
• Platinum up $9.65 or +1% at $972.97

The trend in the Eurostoxx 50 futures contract remains bullish and Monday’s strong start to the week reinforces current conditions. However, the contract has traded in a volatile manner this week and pulled back from Monday’s high. Key S/T support at 5394.00, the Feb 28 low, has been pierced. A clear break of it would signal scope for a deeper retracement towards the 50-day EMA at 5281.53. For bulls, a resumption of the trend would open 5600.00. A sharp sell-off in the S&P E-Minis contract this week, reinforces a short-term bear threat. The contract traded to a fresh short-term cycle low yesterday - price has breached support at 5809.00, the Jan 13 low. This highlights a stronger reversal and a double top pattern on the daily scale. A resumption of weakness would open 5698.25, a Fibonacci retracement. Initial firm resistance to watch is 6019.64, the 50-day EMA.

• Japan's NIKKEI closed higher by 87.06 pts or +0.23% at 37418.24 and the TOPIX ended 8.03 pts higher or +0.3% at 2718.21.
• Elsewhere, in China the SHANGHAI closed higher by 17.755 pts or +0.53% at 3341.965 and the HANG SENG ended 652.44 pts higher or +2.84% at 23594.21.
• Across Europe, Germany's DAX trades higher by 767.88 pts or +3.44% at 23084.59, FTSE 100 higher by 58.74 pts or +0.67% at 8818.11, CAC 40 up 175.17 pts or +2.18% at 8221.37 and Euro Stoxx 50 up 126.69 pts or +2.35% at 5512.54.
• Dow Jones mini up 277 pts or +0.65% at 42874, S&P 500 mini up 48 pts or +0.83% at 5837.25, NASDAQ mini up 204.75 pts or +1% at 20603.

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