BUND TECHS: (M5) Bull Cycle Remains In Play
- RES 4: 132.80 High Feb 5
- RES 3: 132.56 High Feb 28 and a key resistance
- RES 2: 132.04 High Mar 3
- RES 1: 131.48 Intraday high
- PRICE: 131.15 @ 12:05 BST Apr 4
- SUP 1: 129.78 Intraday low
- SUP 2: 128.86/128.47 20-day EMA / Low Mar 28
- SUP 3: 127.74 Low Mar 25 and a key short-term support
- SUP 4: 127.20 Low Mar 17
A bull cycle in Bund futures remains in play and the contract is once again trading higher. Fresh short-term cycle highs signal scope for a continuation of the uptrend. The contract has cleared 131.14, the 76.4% retracement of the Feb 28 - Mar 11 bear leg. Clearance of this level strengthens the bullish condition and opens 132.56, the Feb 28 high. Initial firm support to watch lies at 128.86, the 20-day EMA.
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EGB OPTIONS: Expiries for Mar05 NY cut 1000ET (Source DTCC)
- EUR/USD: $1.0300-20(E1.7bln), $1.0325-35(E1.1bln), $1.0430-50(E1.3bln), $1.0500-05(E746mln)
- USD/JPY: Y147.90-00($702mln), Y148.50($505mln), Y149.00($720mln), Y151.00-10($1.0bln), Y151.85-00($1.0bln)
- EUR/JPY: Y161.75(E1.2bln)
- GBP/USD: $1.2500-20(Gbp1.1bln)
- AUD/USD: $0.6350(A$1.3bln)
- USD/CAD: C$1.4475-80(C$1.2bln), $1.4495-00($1.9bln), C$1.4560($636mln)
- USD/CNY: Cny7.3265($600mln)
US 10YR FUTURE TECHS: (M5) Overbought But Remains Bullish
- RES 4: 112-23+1.618 proj of the Jan 13 - Feb 7 - Feb 12 price swing
- RES 3: 112-18 2.0% 10-dma envelope
- RES 2: 112-13 1.500 proj of the Jan 13 - Feb 7 - Feb 12 price swing
- RES 1: 112-01/02 High Mar 4 / 1.382 proj of Jan 13-Feb 7-12 swing
- PRICE: 111-00 @ 11:10 GMT Mar 5
- SUP 1: 110-23/110-00 Low Feb 28 / High Feb 7
- SUP 2: 109-21 50-day EMA and a key near-term support
- SUP 3: 108-21 Low Feb 19
- SUP 4: 108-03+ Low Dec 12 and a bear trigger
Treasury futures traded to a fresh cycle high Tuesday, reinforcing current bullish conditions. The contract has pierced resistance at 111-22+, Dec 3 ‘24 high. A clear break of this level would strengthen a bullish theme and open 112-02 and 112-13, Fibonacci projection points. Note that the daily trend condition is overbought, a pullback would be considered corrective and allow the overbought set-up to unwind. Firm support is at 110-00, the Feb 7 high.
LOOK AHEAD: Wednesday Data Calendar: ADP, Services PMI, ISM Services
- US Data/Speaker Calendar (prior, estimate)
- 5-Mar 0700 MBA Mortgage Applications (-1.2%, --)
- 5-Mar 0815 ADP Employment Change (183k, 140k)
- 5-Mar 0945 S&P Global US Services PMI (49.7, 49.7)
- 5-Mar 1000 Factory Orders (-0.9%, 1.7%) Durables (3.1%, 3.1%)
- 5-Mar 1000 ISM Services Index (52.8, 52.5)
- 5-Mar 1000 ISM Services Prices Paid (60.4, 60.4)
- 5-Mar 1400 Federal Reserve Releases Beige Book
- 5-Mar 1130 US Tsy $60B 17W bill auction
