BTP TECHS: (M5) Corrective Phase

• RES 4: 94.24 2.00 proj of the Feb 20 - 24 minor price swing
• RES 3: 94.00 Round number resistance      
• RES 2: 93.83 High Feb 6 and a bull trigger 
• RES 1: 93.39 High Feb 13                   
• PRICE: 93.23 @ Close Feb 25
• SUP 1: 92.72 Low Feb 25                                   
• SUP 2: 92.22 Low Feb 24   
• SUP 3: 91.79 Low Feb 20 and a bear trigger 
• SUP 4: 91.61 Low Jan 21  

A bull cycle in Gilt futures remains intact and the latest pullback appears corrective - for now. The contract traded higher Tuesday and attention is on the next resistance at 93.39, the Feb 13 high. Clearance of this short-term hurdle would signal scope for a climb towards 93.83, the high on Feb 6 and a bull trigger. On  the downside, key short-term support has been defined at 91.79, the Feb 20 low. A break of this level would strengthen a bear threat.

The German GfK consumer climate fell to -24.7 according to the March advance reading, down from a revised -22.6 in February (previously -22.4) in its weakest print since April 2024. 

• The print gives another blow to the narrative of a potential German "consumption-driven recovery" en vogue a while ago, but which seems like a distant memory now.
• Private consumption rose 0.1% Q/Q in Q4 according to yesterday's final GDP figures - but the increase was so small that its contribution to overall real Q4 GDP growth rounded down to 0.0pp.
• "Although economic expectations rose slightly, income expectations and willingness to buy fall for the second time in a row. The willingness to save, on the other hand, shows slight increases", GfK comments on the release.
• Next month's survey print will provide an update as to whether last week's parliamentary election (which resulted in core parties gaining enough votes for a potentially more stable two-party government) will have a positive impact on German consumer confidence going forward.
• The survey period was 30 January to 10 February.

• MNI CHINA MONEY MKT INDEX FEB LQDTY OUTLOOK 19.3 VS JAN 24.4
• MNI CHINA MMI CURRENT LQDTY CONDITIONS FEB 73.9 VS JAN 64.0
• MNI CHINA MMI ECONOMIC OUTLOOK FEB 65.9 VS JAN 59.3