BTP TECHS: (M5) Corrective Phase
- RES 4: 120.39 High Feb 28
- RES 3: 119.31 Low Mar 4 and a gap high on the daily chart
- RES 2: 118.56 High Mar 5
- RES 1: 117.42/59 20-day EMA / HIgh Mar 27
- PRICE: 117.35 @ Close Mar 27
- SUP 1: 116.54/115.75 Low Mar 18 / 14 and the bear trigger
- SUP 2: 115.52 2.618 proj of the Feb 7 - 19 - 28 price swing
- SUP 3: 115.00 Round number support
- SUP 4: 114.81 3.000 proj of the Feb 7 - 19 - 28 price swing
Recent gains in BTP futures still appear corrective in nature. Note that the trend has recently been in oversold territory and the latest bounce has allowed the condition to unwind. Resistance to watch 117.43, the 20-day EMA. It has been pierced. A clear break of it would open 118.56, the Mar 5 high and a key resistance. A reversal lower and a breach of 115.75, the Mar 14 low, would confirm a continuation of the downtrend.
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GILT TECHS: (M5) Structure Remains Bullish
- RES 4: 94.24 2.00 proj of the Feb 20 - 24 minor price swing
- RES 3: 94.00 Round number resistance
- RES 2: 93.83 High Feb 6 and a bull trigger
- RES 1: 93.39 High Feb 13
- PRICE: 93.23 @ Close Feb 25
- SUP 1: 92.72 Low Feb 25
- SUP 2: 92.22 Low Feb 24
- SUP 3: 91.79 Low Feb 20 and a bear trigger
- SUP 4: 91.61 Low Jan 21
A bull cycle in Gilt futures remains intact and the latest pullback appears corrective - for now. The contract traded higher Tuesday and attention is on the next resistance at 93.39, the Feb 13 high. Clearance of this short-term hurdle would signal scope for a climb towards 93.83, the high on Feb 6 and a bull trigger. On the downside, key short-term support has been defined at 91.79, the Feb 20 low. A break of this level would strengthen a bear threat.
GERMAN DATA: Consumer Confidence Falls to Lowest Value Since April
The German GfK consumer climate fell to -24.7 according to the March advance reading, down from a revised -22.6 in February (previously -22.4) in its weakest print since April 2024.
- The print gives another blow to the narrative of a potential German "consumption-driven recovery" en vogue a while ago, but which seems like a distant memory now.
- Private consumption rose 0.1% Q/Q in Q4 according to yesterday's final GDP figures - but the increase was so small that its contribution to overall real Q4 GDP growth rounded down to 0.0pp.
- "Although economic expectations rose slightly, income expectations and willingness to buy fall for the second time in a row. The willingness to save, on the other hand, shows slight increases", GfK comments on the release.
- Next month's survey print will provide an update as to whether last week's parliamentary election (which resulted in core parties gaining enough votes for a potentially more stable two-party government) will have a positive impact on German consumer confidence going forward.
- The survey period was 30 January to 10 February.
MNI: MNI CHINA MONEY MKT INDEX FEB LQDTY OUTLOOK 19.3 VS JAN 24.4
- MNI CHINA MONEY MKT INDEX FEB LQDTY OUTLOOK 19.3 VS JAN 24.4
- MNI CHINA MMI CURRENT LQDTY CONDITIONS FEB 73.9 VS JAN 64.0
- MNI CHINA MMI ECONOMIC OUTLOOK FEB 65.9 VS JAN 59.3
