US 10YR FUTURE TECHS: (M5) Corrective Pullback
- RES 4: 112-29+ 2.0% 10-dma envelope
- RES 3: 112-13 1.500 proj of the Jan 13 - Feb 7 - Feb 12 price swing
- RES 2: 112-01/02 High Mar 4 / 1.382 proj of Jan 13-Feb 7-12 swing
- RES 1: 111-15 High Mar 5
- PRICE: 111-07 @ 16:49 GMT Mar 7
- SUP 1: 110-12+/110-00 Low Mar 6 / High Feb 7
- SUP 2: 109-21 50-day EMA and a key near-term support
- SUP 3: 108-21 Low Feb 19
- SUP 4: 108-03+ Low Dec 12 and a bear trigger
The trend condition in Treasury futures remains bullish and the latest pullback appears corrective. The contract has recently pierced resistance at 111-22+, the Dec 3 ‘24 high. A clear break of this level would strengthen a bullish theme and open 112-02 and 112-13, Fibonacci projection points. Note that the daily trend condition is overbought, a pullback is allowing the overbought set-up to unwind. Firm support is at 110-00, the Feb 7 high.
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PIPELINE: US$ Bond Issuance Update: $5.5B Republic of Poland Launched
- Date $MM Issuer (Priced *, Launch #)
- 02/05 $5.5B #Republic of Poland $2.75B 5Y +75, $2.75B 10Y +105
- 02/05 $3B #UBS $1.5B PerpNC5.5 7%, $1.5B PerpNC10 7.125%
- 02/05 $2.5B #IDA 10Y SOFR+61
- 02/05 $1B *KFW 4% 2026 TAP SOFR+20
- 02/05 $Benchmark IBM 3Y +65a, 5Y +80a, 7Y +90a, 10Y +100a, 30Y +125a
- 02/05 $Benchmark PepsiCo 2Y +45a, 3Y +50a, 5Y +60a, 10Y +80a
- 02/05 $Benchmark US Bancorp 6NC5 +100a, 11NC10 +125a
- 02/05 $Benchmark Citigroup PerpNC5 7.37%a
- 02/05 $Benchmark Citadel Finance 5Y +195a
- 02/05 $Benchmark Pacific Life 5Y +80a
- 02/05 $Benchmark IFC 4.5Y SOFR+36a
- 02/05 $Benchmark Minera Mexico 7Y +175a
- 02/05 $Benchmark Republic of Turkiye 7Y 7.2%
US-JAPAN: Trump And Ishiba To Call For "Golden Age" Of Relations - Nikkei
Nikkei reporting that US President Donald Trump and Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba will issue a joint statement at a White House summit on Friday, calling for building a "golden age" of bilateral relations. Ishiba will be the second foreign leader, after Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, to visit Trump at the White House.
- The meeting is likely to take place in the morning/afternoon as Trump has a dinner with Senate Republicans scheduled to take place at Mar-a-Lago in the evening.
- According to Nikkei, the statement will also outline "shared views on the economy, security and China" and "emphasize realizing a free and open Indo-Pacific".
- The impact of Trump's tariffs on Japan's manufacturing sector is likely to be high on the agenda, with proposed duties on Mexico weighing heavily on Japanese automakers.
- Kyodo reported this week Ishiba is expected to invite Trump to visit Japan in the second half of 2025, likely around the time South Korea hosts the APEC summit in autumn.
- Kyodo notes Ishiba told a parliamentary committee on Monday, "We need to make necessary efforts to stabilize the Japan-U.S. alliance further," saying that the two nations have common visions such as a "free and open Indo-Pacific" and the rule of law.
- Kyodo adds: "Ishiba and Trump are expected to affirm, "that Article 5 of the bilateral security treaty applies to the Senkaku Islands, which are administered by Japan but claimed by China in the East China Sea..."
US 10YR FUTURE TECHS: (H5) Cleanly Tops 50-day EMA
- RES 4: 110-25 High Dec 12
- RES 3: 110-19 76.4% retracement of the Dec 6 - Jan 13 bear leg
- RES 2: 109-30 61.8% retracement of the Dec 6 - Jan 13 bear leg
- RES 1: 109-27 High Feb 5
- PRICE: 109-25 @ 16:30 GMT Feb 5
- SUP 1: 108-20+ Low Feb 4
- SUP 2: 108-06/107-06 Low Jan 23 / 13 and the bear trigger
- SUP 3: 107-04 Low Apr 25 ‘24 and a key support
- SUP 4: 106-11 2.00 proj of the Oct 1 - 14 - 16 price swing
Treasury futures extended the rally into Wednesday trade, hitting a weekly high at 109-27. The contract is building on recent gains having cleanly topped resistance at the 50-day EMA of 109-10. This strengthens the short-term bullish case and highlights potential for a stronger reversal. This would open 109.30, a Fibonacci retracement. On the downside, initial support to watch is 108-20+, Tuesday’s low. Clearance of it would signal a reversal.
