BTP TECHS: (M5) Maintains A Positive Tone

• RES 4: 118.090 High Mar 5       
• RES 3: 117.850 Low Feb 20          
• RES 2: 117.645 50.0% retracement of the Feb 28 - Mar 6 sell-off     
• RES 1: 117.460 High Mar 21                                  
• PRICE: 117.350 @ 05:45 GMT Mar 25 
• SUP 1: 116.800 Low Mar 17       
• SUP 2: 116.470/250 Low Mar 12 / 6 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: 116.309 3.618 proj of the minor Feb 28 - Mar 3 - 4 price swing
• SUP 4: 116.309 3.618 proj of the minor Feb 28 - Mar 3 - 4 price swing    

Bobl futures are trading at their recent gains and remain in a short-term bull cycle - a correction. The recent trend condition was oversold and the move higher has allowed this set-up to unwind. The primary trend direction is down. Former support at 117.850, the Feb 20 low, has recently been cleared. The recent sell-off signals scope for an extension towards 116.000. Firm resistance to watch is seen at 117.850, the Feb 20 low.

• RES 4: 1.1083 High Oct 2 2024  
• RES 3: 1.1040 High Oct 4 2024
• RES 2: 1.0961 76.4% retracement of the Sep 25 ‘24 - Feb 3 bear leg
• RES 1: 1.0955 High Mar 18  
• PRICE: 1.0803 @ 05:59 GMT Mar 25
• SUP 1: 1.0760 20-day EMA   
• SUP 2: 1.0624 50-day EMA and a short-term pivot level      
• SUP 3: 1.0471 Low Mar 4     
• SUP 4: 1.0360 Low Feb 28 and a key support  

A corrective phase in EURUSD remains in play and the pair continues to trade below its recent highs. The trend outlook is unchanged, the direction remains up and moving average studies are in a bull-mode position, highlighting a dominant uptrend. Sights on 1.0961 next, a Fibonacci retracement. Clearance of this level would open 1.1040, the Oct 4 ‘24 high. First support to watch is 1.0760, the 20-day EMA.

• In a further sign of it’s diminishing importance, the PBOC announced changes to the process for pricing 1-year loans under the Medium Term Loan Facility.  The move towards an American style auction process allowing qualified lenders to pay different rates for the loan from today.  (source: BBG)
• Money managers in China believe any pullback in stocks due to the trade war from tariffs, will represent a buying opportunity. (source:  BBG).
• China's Hang Seng is leading the decline down -2.10% today, with the CS! 300 down -0.20%, Shanghai Comp -0.18% and Shenzhen down -0.83%
• CNY:  Yuan Reference Rate at 7.1788 Per USD; Estimate 7.2624
• Bonds:  bonds rallied post the OMO injection with CGB 10YR 2bp lower at 1.81%.