EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: (M5) Monitoring Support At The 50-Day EMA

Austria and Italy are both due to sell bills this week, whilst Germany and France have already issued. We expect issuance to be E18.8bln in first round operations, a little lower than the E19.0bln last week.

• Today, Austria will look to issue E1bln of the 2-month Apr 24, 2025 ATB and E2bln of the 3-month May 30, 2025 Green ATB.
• Finally tomorrow, Italy will conclude issuance for the week with a BOT auction. On offer will be E2bln of each of the 2-month May 14, 2025 BOT and the 5-month July 31, 2025 BOT.

For more on future auctions see the full MNI Eurozone/UK T-bill auction calendar here.

• RES 4: 0.8378 High Feb 6 and a key resistance    
• RES 3: 0.8361 50.0% retracement of the Jan 20 - Feb 3 bear leg  
• RES 2: 0.8335 50-day EMA  
• RES 1: 0.8321 20-day EMA   
• PRICE: 0.8292 @ 06:30 GMT Feb 25
• SUP 1: 0.8265/8248 Low Feb 21 / 3 and bear trigger
• SUP 2: 0.8223 Low Dec 19 and a key support  
• SUP 3: 0.8203 Low Mar 7 ‘22 and a lowest point of a multi-year range   
• SUP 4: 0.8163 123.6% retracement of the Dec 19 - Jan 20 bull leg 

EURGBP continues to trade closer to its recent lows. A resumption of weakness would expose the key short-term support at 0.8248, the Feb 3 low. Clearance of this level would strengthen a short-term bearish condition. Note that the early February bounce does highlight a possible bullish reversal theme. Clearance of  0.8378, the Jan 6 high and a key short-term pivot resistance, would be a positive development for bulls.

• RES 4: 5606.00 3.000 proj of the Dec 20 ‘24 - Jan 8 - 13 price swing
• RES 3: 5588.38 2.0% 10-dma envelope
• RES 2: 5574.57 2.382 proj of the Nov 21 - Dec 9 - 20 ‘24 price swing   
• RES 1: 5555.00 Alltime high (cont), Feb 18            
• PRICE: 5457.00 @ 06:09 GMT Feb 25
• SUP 1: 5387.59 20-day EMA            
• SUP 2: 5295.00 Low Feb 6 
• SUP 3: 5229.26 50-day EMA  
• SUP 4: 5112.00 Low Feb 3 and a key support   

The trend condition in the Eurostoxx 50 futures contract remains up and last week’s climb to a new alltime high on the continuation contract, reinforces a bull theme. Note too that moving average studies are in a bull-mode set-up, highlighting a dominant uptrend and positive market sentiment. Sights are on 5574.57 next, a Fibonacci projection. Initial firm support to watch is 5387.59, the 20-day EMA. A pullback would be considered corrective.