BTP TECHS: (M5) Northbound

Germany, France, Austria, Greece and Italy are all due to sell bills this week. We expect issuance to be E20.9bln in first round operations, up from E19.4bln last week.

• This morning, Germany will come to the market with E2bln of the 3-month Jun 18, 2025 Bubill and E2bln of the 9-month Dec 10, 2025 Bubill.
• This afternoon, France will look to sell up to a combined E8.2bln of 13/14/26/52-week BTFs: E3.0-3.4bln of the 13-week Jun 25, 2025 BTF; E0.4-0.8bln of the 14-week Jul 2, 2025 BTF; E1.8-2.2bln of the 26-week Sep 24, 2025 BTF; E1.4-1.8bln of the new 52-week Mar 25, 2026 BTF.
• On Tuesday morning, Austria will sell E1bln of the 4-month Jul 24, 2025 ATB and E0.75bln of the new, green 6-month Sep 25, 2025 ATB.
• On Wednesday, Greece will issue E500mln of the new 26-week Sep 26, 2025 GTB.
• Finally on Thursday, Italy will come to the market with a 6-month BOT, potentially alongside another BOT. Details will be announced this evening. 

• RES 4: 5600.00 Round number resistance
• RES 3: 5562.87 0.764 proj of the Feb 3 - Mar 3 - 11 price swing  
• RES 2: 5516.00 High Mar 3 and the bull trigger   
• RES 1: 5471.00 High Mar 19 / 20             
• PRICE: 5383.00 @ 06:20 GMT Mar 24 
• SUP 1: 5285.44/5229.00 50-day EMA / Low Mar 11 and a bear trigger                
• SUP 2: 5202.00 Low Feb 2 
• SUP 3: 5160.00 Low Feb 4       
• SUP 4: 5079.00 Low Feb 3 and a key support      

Eurostoxx 50 futures continue to trade above their recent lows. The medium-term trend direction is up and the recent pullback is considered corrective. Support to watch is the 50-day EMA, at 5285.44. It has recently been pierced. A clear break of it would highlight a stronger short-term bear threat and suggest scope for a retracement towards 5160.00, the Feb 4 low. The bull trigger is 5516.00, the Mar 3 high.

SFRZ5 96.25/96.00 1x2 put spread paper paid -3.0 on 2K.