US 10YR FUTURE TECHS: (M5) Recovers Well Off Support

• RES 4: 111-22+ High Dec 3 ‘24 and a key resistance
• RES 3: 111-00   Round number resistance  
• RES 2: 110-31   1.00 proj of the Jan 13 - Feb 7 - Feb 12 price swing     
• RES 1: 110-20+/21   High Feb 26 / 25
• PRICE:‌‌ 110-17 @ 16:50 GMT Feb 26
• SUP 1: 110-00   High Feb 7 and a recent breakout point        
• SUP 2: 109-11   50-day EMA and a key near-term support 
• SUP 3: 108-21   Low Feb 19 
• SUP 4: 108-03+ Low Dec 12 and a bear trigger  

Treasury futures have traded higher this week. The contract has pierced resistance at 110-20, the 76.4% retracement of the Dec 3 - Jan 13 bear leg. 
This broadens the bullish recovery and signals scope for a climb towards the 111-00 handle, ahead of 111-22+, the Dec 3 high and a key resistance. Initial firm support to monitor is 109-11, the 50-day EMA. A move below this average is required to highlight a potential reversal.  

Bloomberg reporting that the White House Office of Management and Budget has directed federal government agencies "to drastically reduce the size of the US government" laying out a two-phase reform framework. The first phase would cover cuts to staffing, with proposals due March 13. The second phase would cover organisational overhaul, with proposals due April 14. The memo states that mass layoffs would occur in June - three months after first-phase plans are submitted to the OMB. 

• Notably, the deadline for the first-phase proposals comes a day before Congress must legislate a spending package to avert a government shutdown. Polymarket notes there is a 50% implied probability of a shutdown in 2025, with the elevated risk reflecting Democrats' public statements hinting that they could use the shutdown as leverage to oppose the OMB's and Elon Musk's hardline federal government reform programme. The memo is likely to fortify the Democrat position and nudge Congress closer to a shutdown.
• Bloomberg notes: "The memo didn’t provide any specific targets for job cuts, but said the “starting point” for the plans should be workers deemed non-essential during a government shutdown." That definition could be applied to roughly 40% of federal workers traditionally furloughed during a government shutdown.
• OMB Director Russell Vought said in the memo: “The federal government is costly, inefficient, and deeply in debt. At the same time, it is not producing results for the American public. The American people registered their verdict on the bloated, corrupt federal bureaucracy... by voting for President Trump...”

• EUR/USD: Feb28 $1.0396-00(E2.8bln), $1.0550(E1.7bln), $1.0600(E1.0bln); Mar03 $1.0470-75(E1.0bln); Mar04 $1.0520-30(E1.9bln)
• USD/JPY: Feb28 Y150.00($1.1bln)
• AUD/USD: Feb28 $0.6500-10(A$1.2bln); Mar04 $0.6335(A$1.2bln)
• USD/CAD: Feb28 C$1.4290-00($1.5bln); Mar03 C$1.4300($1.6bln), C$1.4315-25($1.2bln)