EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: (M5) Southbound
- RES 4: 5341.00 High Mar 27
- RES 3: 5287.93/5325.98 50- and 20-day EMA values
- RES 2: 5229.00 Low Mar 11 and a recent breakout level
- RES 1: 5157.00 Low Mar 31
- PRICE: 5067.00 @ 15:26 BST Apr 3
- SUP 1: 5040.50 1.500 proj of the Mar 3 - 11 - 19 price swing
- SUP 2: 5006.63 1.618 proj of the Mar 3 - 11 - 19 price swing
- SUP 3: 4931.00 Low Jan 13 (cont)
- SUP 4: 4905.74 76.4% retracement of the Nov 19 ‘ 24 - Mar 3 bull leg
Eurostoxx 50 futures remain in a bear cycle following recent weakness and today’s fresh cycle low strengthens the bearish condition. Recent weakness resulted in a break of support at 5229.00, the Mar 11 low. The contract has breached 5079.00, the Feb 3 low. Sights are on 5040.50 next, a Fibonacci projection. Initial firm resistance is 5325.98, the 20-day EMA. A clear break of this average is required to highlight a reversal.
Want to read more?
Find more articles and bullets on these widgets:
Historical bullets
EQUITIES: Attention turns to the US Open
Attention turns to the US Cash open, the Emini (ESH5) and the January 2025 low of 5809.00 just held, printed a 5812.00 low so far today, and finding some underlying bids ahead of the Open.
Cash SPX sees the January low standing at 5773.31, but the open will be some way short of that initial level, and Yesterday's low of 5810.91.
- Calls: SPX: 5,815.0 (-0.6%); DJIA: 43,020 (-0.4%/-171pts); NDX: 20,306.7 (-0.6%).
US TSY FUTURES: BLOCK: Jun'25 5Y Sale
- 6,000 FVM5 108-10, sell through 108-10.25 post time bid at 0915:24ET, DV01 $246,000. The 5Y contract trades 108-11.25 last (+8.5)
BUNDS: Futures Pierce Support On Bundesbank Debt Brake Reform Proposal
A fresh Bundesbank proposal for a debt brake tweak (outlined in a previous bullet) adds weight to Bunds in recent trade.
- Bund futures through initial support at 132.13, with next meaningful support seen at 131.72. Lows of 131.94 printed before a recovery to ~132.10.
- Fresh steepening on the curve results in cycle highs for both 2s10s and 5s30s at 47.5bp and 66.0bp, respectively.
- Swap spreads move lower, but long end ASWs vs. 3-month Euribor fail to breach cycle lows.
- Expect debt brake negotiations to be drawn out over the coming months, given different preferences/ideals across the political spectrum and shift in Bundestag composition in late March.
- Special funds remain the first port of call for near-term German fiscal support, although seemingly need to be passed before the new Bundestag sits (which is doable, but clearly time constrained).
