US 10YR FUTURE TECHS: (M5) Structure Remains Bullish

RXH5 131.50/130.50ps 1x2, bought the 1 for 1.5 in ~1.95k.

New 10-year Feb-35 RAGB

• Spread set earlier at MS+48bps (guidance was MS+51bps area)
• Size: E5bln inc E250mln retained (MNI expected E4.5-5.0bln including E250-500mln retention)
• Books in excess of E35bln (inc E3.15bln JLM interest)
• Maturity: 20 February 2035
• Coupon: Long first
• ISIN: AT0000A3HU25 

1.85% May-49 Green RAGB tap

• Spread set at MS+78bps (guidance was MS+80bps area)
• Size: E1.5bln inc E250mln retained (MNI expects E1.0-2.0bln)
• Books in excess of E15bln (inc E800mln JLM interest)
• ISIN: AT0000A2Y8G4

For both:

• JLMs: BofA Securities, Deutsche Bank, Erste Group, J.P. Morgan, Morgan Stanley and Raiffeisen Bank International
• Timing: Books closed, allocations and pricing later today.

From market source

• RES 4: 110-25   High Dec 12
• RES 3: 110-19   76.4% retracement of the Dec 6  - Jan 13 bear leg.    
• RES 2: 109-31   High Dec 18  
• RES 1: 109-12+ 50-day EMA 
• PRICE:‌‌ 108-29+ @ 10:35 GMT Jan 28
• SUP 1: 108-00/107-06 Low Jan 16 / 13 and the bear trigger    
• SUP 2: 107-04   Low Apr 25 ‘24 and a key support  
• SUP 3: 107-00   Round number support
• SUP 4: 106-11   2.00 proj of the Oct 1 - 14 - 16 price swing  

The medium-term trend condition in Treasury futures is down, however a bullish short-term cycle highlights a corrective phase and the contract is holding on to its recent gains. Attention is on 109-12+, the 50-day EMA - a level tested on Monday. A clear break of this EMA would strengthen a bullish theme and open 109-31, the Dec 18 high. The bear trigger is 107-06, the Jan 13 low. Initial support has been defined at 108-00, the Jan 16 low.