US 10YR FUTURE TECHS: (M5) Support Remains Intact

• RES 4: 110-25   High Dec 12
• RES 3: 110-19   76.4% retracement of the Dec 6  - Jan 13 bear leg    
• RES 2: 110-14   High Dec 14
• RES 1: 109-10/110-00 50-day EMA / High Feb 7 and the bull trigger 
• PRICE:‌‌ 108-07+ @ 16:52 GMT Feb 12
• SUP 1: 108-00 Low Jan 16   
• SUP 2: 107-06 Low Jan 13 and the bear trigger 
• SUP 3: 107-04   Low Apr 25 ‘24 and a key support 
• SUP 4: 106-11   2.00 proj of the Oct 1 - 14 - 16 price swing  

Treasury futures traded sharply lower on Wednesday’s CPI print, resulting in a break of support at 108-20+, the Feb 4 low. The breach of this support highlights a stronger reversal and most likely, the end of the corrective cycle between Jan 13 - Feb 7. A continuation lower would open 108-00, the Jan 16 low, and expose 107-06, the Jan 13 low and bear trigger. Key resistance and the bull trigger is 110-00, the Feb 7 high.   

Block crossed at 1144:20ET - both at respective post time offers. However, trading desks say the the 30Y Bond is sold vs. the Ultra, appr DV01 $372,000:

• 3,000 USH5 113-13 (-1-12)
• 2,000 WNH5 118-02 (-1-20)

Reuters reporting comments from Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent following a meeting in Kyiv today.

• Amid uncertainty over US President Donald Trump’s long-term commitment to Kyiv, Bessent said he, “would like to send a signal to the world the US stands with Ukraine in the face of Russian aggression.” Adding that his first visit being to Ukraine, “shows the war is a top priority for the Trump administration.”
• Zelenskyy characterised the discussion as “productive and constructive” noting that he will study a natural resources agreement presented by Bessent ahead of Friday’s Munich Security Conference. Zelenskyy confirmed that resources in territories occupied by Russia were not discussed.
• An agreement between the US and Ukraine to provide US firms with rights to Ukrainian resources, including rare earths, is seen as facilitating continued US assistance, with Bessent noting a critical minerals deal is “part of a larger peace deal…”
• Trump wrote in a message on Truth Social ahead of the meeting: “The U.S. has spent BILLIONS of Dollars Globally, with little to show.”
• Trump’s national security advisor Mike Walz told NBC this week: “We need to recoup those costs and that is going to be a partnership with the Ukrainians in terms of their rare earths, their natural resources and their oil and gas, and also buying ours. Those conversations are going to happen this week.”