BOBL TECHS: (M5) Support Remains Intact

• RES 4: 1.1083 High Oct 2 2024  
• RES 3: 1.1040 High Oct 4 2024
• RES 2: 1.0961 76.4% retracement of the Sep 25 ‘24 - Feb 3 bear leg
• RES 1: 1.0947 HIgh Mar 11  
• PRICE: 1.0908 @ 06:11 GMT Mar 12
• SUP 1: 1.0766/1.0604 Low Mar 6 / 20-day EMA   
• SUP 2: 1.0517 50-day EMA and a short-term pivot level      
• SUP 3: 1.0360 Low Feb 28 and a key support     
• SUP 4: 1.0317 Low Feb 12 

EURUSD traded higher Tuesday, extending the current bull cycle and once again, this marks a continuation of the reversal on Feb 3. Note that MA studies have recently crossed and are in a bull-mode position, highlighting a dominant uptrend. Bulls have their sights on 1.0961 next, a Fibonacci retracement. Initial key support to watch lies at 1.0517, the 50-day EMA. The uptrend is overbought, a pullback would allow this set-up to unwind.

• RES 4: 130.40 Low Feb 19               
• RES 3: 129.96 High Mar 5     
• RES 2: 129.41 Low Jan 14 
• RES 1: 128.33 High Mar 10                  
• PRICE: 126.85 @ 05:42 GMT Mar 12
• SUP 1: 126.53 Low Mar 11      
• SUP 2: 126.28 2.618 proj of the Feb 5 - 19 - 28 price swing            
• SUP 3: 126.00 Round number support
• SUP 4: 123.36 3.00 proj of the Feb 5 - 19 - 28 price swing 

Bund futures are in consolidation mode and the contract is trading closer to its recent lows. A bearish theme remains intact. Last week’s impulsive sell-off signals scope for an extension towards 126.28 next, a Fibonacci projection. Further out, 126.00 is also within range. Note that the contract is in oversold territory, a recovery would allow this condition to unwind. Initial firm resistance to watch is seen at 129.41, the Jan 14 low.

The EU Commission has announced countermeasures after US steel and aluminium tariffs on EU imports came into effect. See details below. 

• "First, the Commission will allow the suspension of existing 2018 and 2020 countermeasures against the US to lapse on 1 April. These countermeasures target a range of US products that respond to the economic harm done on €8 billion of EU steel and aluminium exports.
• Second, in response to new US tariffs affecting more than €18 billion of EU exports, the Commission is putting forward a package of new countermeasures on US exports. They will come into force by mid-April, following consultation of Member States and stakeholders.
• In total, the EU countermeasures could therefore apply to US goods exports worth up to €26 billion, matching the economic scope of the US tariffs.
• In the meantime, the EU remains ready to work with the US administration to find a negotiated solution. The abovementioned measures can be reversed at any time should such a solution be found." See this link from the EU Commission for more details.