USDJPY TECHS: Maintains A Bearish Tone
Apr-04 14:10
- RES 4: 151.30 High Mar 3
- RES 3: 150.57/151.21 50-day EMA / High Mar 28 and reversal trigger
- RES 2: 149.35 20-day EMA
- RES 1: 148.18 Low Mar 20
- PRICE: 145.68 @ 15:09 BST Apr 4
- SUP 1: 144.56 Intraday low
- SUP 2: 144.13 76.4% retracement of the Sep 16 ‘24 - Jan 10 bull leg
- SUP 3: 143.43 Low Oct 2 ‘24
- SUP 4: 142.95 1.00 proj of the Feb 12 - Mar 11 - 28 price swing
USDJPY maintains a softer tone following this week’s sharp sell-off. The pair has pierced support at the 145.00 level. A clear break of this level would strengthen a bearish theme and signal scope for an extension towards 144.13, a Fibonacci retracement point. Note that the trend condition is oversold, a recovery would allow this set-up to unwind. Initial firm resistance to watch is 148.18, the Mar 20 low.
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STIR: 80bp Of Fed Cuts Priced Through Year-End
Mar-05 14:08
Dovish readthrough for Fed pricing on the back of the softer-than-expected ADP print means that Fed funds futures once again fully discount 3x 25bp cuts through year-end, with ~80bp of easing now priced through the Dec FOMC vs. ~73bp ahead of the data.
- A reminder that as little as ~37bp of cuts were priced over the same horizon as recently as mid-February.
- ~14.5bp of cuts priced through May vs. ~12bp ahead of the data, with ~32.5bp of cuts showing through June vs. ~28.5bp ahead of the data.
- The miss in the headline ADP figure, coupled with mostly negative revisions to recent months, will do little to placate deepening growth concerns that have driven much of the dovish repricing seen in recent weeks.
- Indeed, the ADP release noted that the survey “suggests a hiring hesitancy among employers as they assess the economic climate ahead”.
- However, we have also noted the wide differences between the survey and private payrolls figures in recent months.
- The employment component of the impending ISM services survey presents the next labour market indicator worth watching.
FED FUNDS FUTURES: BLOCK: May'25 FF Sale
Mar-05 14:06
- -5,000 FFK5 95.785 (+0.015), post time bid at 0903:01ET
CROSS ASSET: Some recovery from the Lows in Bonds
Mar-05 14:03
- Bund and wider Govies are recovering from their previous lows, the German Syndication is out of the way and the US ADP miss has been helping.
- The US Emini also hovers at the low on the back of the Data.
- Desks will now be Watching the US Cash Equity open in 30 minutes, followed by Factory orders, but more importantly the ISM Services and it components.
- The US services PMIs and Durable Goods will be final reading Today.
