US TSY FUTURES: March'25/June'25 Roll Update: Winding Down

Feb-26 11:38

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The latest Tsy quarterly futures from March'25 to June'25 below. Winding down after Tuesday's heavy ...

Historical bullets

OPTIONS: Expiries for Jan27 NY cut 1000ET (Source DTCC)

Jan-27 11:34
  • EUR/USD: $1.0500(E729mln)
  • USD/JPY: Y155.95-00($1.6bln)
  • EUR/JPY: Y163.00(E565mln)
  • AUD/USD: $0.6300(A$778mln)
  • USD/CAD: C$1.4275($600mln)
  • USD/CNY: Cny7.6000($2.1bln)

US 10YR FUTURE TECHS: (H5) Approaching The 50-Day EMA

Jan-27 11:32
  • RES 4: 110-25   High Dec 12
  • RES 3: 110-19   76.4% retracement of the Dec 6  - Jan 13 bear leg.    
  • RES 2: 109-31   High Dec 18  
  • RES 1: 109-12+ 50-day EMA 
  • PRICE:‌‌ 109-11 @ 11:21 GMT Jan 27
  • SUP 1: 108-00/107-06 Low Jan 16 / 13 and the bear trigger    
  • SUP 2: 107-04   Low Apr 25 ‘24 and a key support  
  • SUP 3: 107-00   Round number support
  • SUP 4: 106-11   2.00 proj of the Oct 1 - 14 - 16 price swing  

The medium-term trend condition in Treasury futures is down, however a bullish short-term cycle highlights an ongoing corrective phase and the contract is trading higher today. Attention is on 109-12+, the 50-day EMA. A clear break of this EMA is required to strengthen a bullish theme. This would open 109-31, the Dec 18 high. The bear trigger is unchanged at 107-06, the Jan 13 low. Initial support has been defined at 108-00, the Jan 16 low.

LOOK AHEAD: Monday Data Calendar:Regional Fed Data, Home Sales, 2Y/5Y Note Sales

Jan-27 11:30
  • US Data/Speaker Calendar (prior, estimate)
  • 27-Jan 0830 Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index (-.12, -.06)
  • 27-Jan 1000 New Home Sales (664k, 672k), MoM (5.9%, 6.6%)
  • 27-Jan 1030 Dallas Fed Mfg Activity (3.4, -3.0)
  • 27-Jan 1130 US Tsy $69B 2Y note (91282CMH1) & $72B 26W bill auctions
  • 27-Jan 1300 US Tsy $72B 5Y note (91282CMG3) & $84B 13W bill auctions