AUTOMOTIVE: Mercedes-Benz (MBGGR: A2/A/Au): FY24

A former BOJ official shares his policy rate outlook. On MNI Policy MainWire now, for more details please contact sales@marketnews.com

BTP TECHS: (H5) Resistance At The 20-Day EMA                         

• RES 4: 122.85 High Dec 11     
• RES 3: 120.98 61.8% retracement of the Dec 11 - Jan 13 bear leg   
• RES 2: 120.45 High Jan 2   
• RES 1: 119.32/35 20-day EMA / High Jan 17  
• PRICE: 119.24 @ Close Jan 20 
• SUP 1: 118.27/117.16 Low Jan 16 / 13 and the bear trigger           
• SUP 2: 116.59 76.4% retrace of the Jun - Dec ‘24 bull cycle (cont)
• SUP 3: 116.07 Low Jul 8 ‘24 (cont)
• SUP 4: 115.45 Low Jul 3 ‘24 (cont)     

The current bear cycle in BTP futures remains in play and last week’s fresh cycle low reinforces current conditions. However, from a short-term perspective, the latest rally highlights a corrective phase. Resistance to watch is 119.32, the 20-day EMA. A clear break of this level would signal scope for a stronger retracement. The bear trigger has been defined at 117.16, the Jan 13 low.

Upside surprise again to private regular AWE at 6.0%Y/Y in the 3-months to Nov (5.8% expected, 5.37% prior).

• This has also helped pull the whole economy ex bonus number above the 5.5% expected to come in at 5.6%.
• There must be some downside on the bonuses here - as the total whole economy AWE (inc bonus) is actually a tenth lower than expected at 5.6%/Y in the 3-months to end Nov,
• The unemployment rate ticked up to 4.4% (rounded to 1dp) from 4.3% as expected.
• Very little reaction in GBP FX to that release, GBPUSD initially moved a few pips lower and is now a couple of pips above pre-data levels.