OIL: Mid-Day Oil Summary: Crude Falls
Crude prices have fallen today amid steadily rising demand concerns owing to limited progress in US-China trade negotiations, while rising OPEC+ output adds to bearish pressure.
- Brent JUN 25 down 1.8% at 64.7$/bbl
- WTI JUN 25 down 1.7% at 61.02$/bbl
- China continues to deny that trade talks with the US are taking place.
- Putin yesterday announced a 72-hour truce in Ukraine from midnight May 8 for Victory Day. Ukraine has not yet agreed to the ceasefire, instead pushing for a 30-day truce.
- Iran has reportedly proposed meeting European leaders on May 2, ahead of further talks with the US in Europe, potentially on May 3.
- Kazakhstan increased oil exports by 7% y/y to 19.52m metric tons, or 1.63m b/d, in Q1 owing to a supply boost via the CPC, Reuters reports based on official data and sources.
- Several OPEC+ members want to approve another accelerated oil output increase for June at their meeting on May 5, Reuters said last week.
- 11.2m bbl of US crude is set to arrive in India in June, the highest volume since late August, Bloomberg reports citing Kpler data.
- US Energy Secretary Chris Wright said on CBNC that the US will continue to fill the Strategic Petroleum Reserve while he is in office.
- The North Sea market could see pressure ahead as the region remains an outlier relative to the rest of world, according to Sparta Commodities.
- Barclays has lowered its Brent crude forecast across 2025 by $4/bbl to $70/bbl and expects $62/bbl in 2026, Reuters reported.
- The API US oil inventory data is due at 16:30ET ahead of the EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report tomorrow. A Reuters survey indicated a crude stock build of 0.5mbbl in the week ended April 25.
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Historical bullets
USDCAD TECHS: Bullish Outlook
- RES 4: 1.4700 Round number resistance
- RES 3: 1.4641 76.4% retracement of the Feb 3 - 14 bear leg
- RES 2: 1.4452/4543 High Mar 13 / 4 and a bull trigger
- RES 1: 1.4402 High Mar 20
- PRICE: 1.4292 @ 16:50 GMT Mar 28
- SUP 1: 1.4235 Low Mar 26 and a key near-term support
- SUP 2: 1.4151/4107 Low Feb 14 / 50.0% of Sep 25 - Feb 3 bull run
- SUP 3: 1.4011 Low Dec 5 ‘24
- SUP 4: 1.3944 61.8% retracement of the Sep 25 ‘24 - Feb 3 bull cycle
USDCAD traded through support at 1.4242 on Wednesday but has recovered. A return lower and clearance of this level would undermine the bull theme and instead highlight potential for a test of 1.4151, the Feb 14 low and a bear trigger. Moving average studies continue to highlight a dominant uptrend. A reversal higher would refocus attention on the bull trigger at 1.4543, the Mar 4 high. First resistance is 1.4402, the Mar 20 high.
US FISCAL: Debt Limit "Extraordinary Measures" Pick Up, But Cash Dipping Pre-Tax
Treasury data shows that there were $207B of "extraordinary measures" available to circumvent hitting the debt limit as of Wednesday Mar 26.
- That's the most since Jan 27th and up from $163B a week earlier, from a total $376B available.
- However, Treasury cash in the TGA fell to $316B as of the 26th (and was down to $280B on Thursday), meaning there were a combined $523B of resources available to avert the debt limit, the lowest since the impasse began in January (and half of the starting amount of just over $1T).
- The next couple of weeks will be very important for Treasury, as they represent the biggest tax take of the year. The Congressional Budget Office reported this week that per its estimates "if the debt limit [$36.1T] remains unchanged, the government's ability to borrow using extraordinary measures will probably be exhausted in August or September 2025." Treasury wrote to Congress this month that they would be able to provide an update on the x-date in the first half of May, after the conclusion of tax season.
AUDUSD TECHS: Remains Above Support
- RES 4: 0.6429 High Dec 12 ‘24
- RES 3: 0.6414 38.2% retracement of the Sep 30 ‘24 - Feb 3 bear leg
- RES 2: 0.6409 High Feb 21 and a bull trigger
- RES 1: 0.6391 High Mar 17 / 18
- PRICE: 0.6291 @ 16:46 GMT Mar 28
- SUP 1: 0.6258 Low Mar 21
- SUP 2: 0.6187 Low Feb 4
- SUP 3: 0.6171/6088 Low Feb 4 / 3 and a key support
- SUP 4: 0.6045 1.500 proj of the Sep 30 - Nov 6 - 7 price swing
AUDUSD is unchanged. A short-term bull theme is intact and the latest move down appears corrective. Key short-term support to watch is 0.6187, the Mar 4 low. Clearance of this level would reinstate a bear threat. First support is at 0.6258, the Mar 21 low. A stronger recovery would refocus attention on 0.6409, the Feb 21 high. Clearance of this hurdle would strengthen the bull cycle and resume the uptrend that started Feb 3.
