OIL: Mid-Day Oil Summary: Crude Rises
Mar-14 11:40
Front month crude prices are slightly higher on the day and more or less flat on the week following eight weeks of declines. The announcement of a press conference in China next Monday on boosting consumption has supported pricing alongside fresh US sanctions on the Iranian oil trade.
- Brent MAY 25 up 0.7% at 70.38$/bbl
- WTI APR 25 up 0.8% at 67.05$/bbl
- Expectations of an immediate ceasefire in Ukraine have been tempered after Russian President Vladimir Putin's tentative support for a US-brokered ceasefire framework, but with a number of clarifications and conditions.
- In further escalation of the pressure on Iran, the Trump administration is imposing further sanctions including on Iran’s oil minister as well as further vessels used to circumvent the sanctions and some other entities.
- The IEA revised oil demand growth down to 1.03mb/d to 103.9mb/d this year, citing a deterioration in macroeconomic conditions amid rising trade tensions. OPEC remains more optimistic on global demand growth with the forecast unchanged this month at 1.45mb/d to 105.2mb/d.
- Saudi Aramco set to supply around 34mbbl of contractual supplies of April-loading crude to customers in China, Bloomberg reports. This would be the smallest volumes since at least H1 2024.
- Ukraine launched a drone attack on Russia's southern Krasnodar region targeting the Tuapse refinery causing a gasoline fuel tank fire.
- QatarEnergy has cut the term price for al-Shaheen crude oil loading in May, to a premium of $1.29/bbl above Dubai quotes according to Reuters sources.
- The delivery of a 2m bbl cargo of Russian oil to China took seven times longer than it would have prior to US sanctions imposed in January, Bloomberg reports.
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OUTLOOK: Price Signal Summary - WTI Bounce Highlights A Potential Reversal
Feb-12 11:40
- On the commodity front, a bull cycle in Gold remains in play and the yellow metal is trading closer to its recent highs. The continued appreciation once again confirms a resumption of the uptrend and maintains the bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. Moving average studies are in a bull mode position too, highlighting a dominant uptrend. Sights are on the $2962.2, a 2.00 projection of the Nov 14 - Dec 12 - 19 price swing. The first key support to watch is $2779.3, the 20-day EMA.
- In the oil space, WTI futures have recovered from their recent lows. This highlights the fact that the 50-day EMA - at $72.21, despite being pierced, has provided firm support. Moving average studies remain in a bull mode condition highlighting a dominant uptrend. The latest recovery also signals a stronger reversal of the Jan 15 - Feb 6 bear leg. Sights are on $75.18, the Feb 3 high. Key short-term support and the bear trigger lies at $70.43, the Feb 6 low.
EURIBOR: Put Condor buyer
Feb-12 11:28
ERM5 97.8125/97.75/97.6875/97.5625 broken p condor, bought for half in 8k.
LOOK AHEAD: Wednesday Data Calendar: CPI & Revisions, Fed Chair Powell in House
Feb-12 11:28
- US Data/Speaker Calendar (prior, estimate)
- 12-Feb 0700 MBA Mortgage Applications (2.2%, --)
- 12-Feb 0830 CPI MoM (0.4%, 0.3%), YoY (2.9%, 2.9%)
- 12-Feb 0830 CPI Ex Food & Energy MoM (0.2%, 0.3%), YoY (3.2%, 3.1%)
- 12-Feb 0830 Real Avg Weekly Earnings YoY (0.5% revised, --)
- 12-Feb 1000 Fed Chair Powell House Financial Services testimony
- 12-Feb 1130 US Tsy $62B 17W bill auction
- 12-Feb 1200 Atlanta Fed Bostic economic outlook (no text, Q&A)
- 12-Feb 1300 US Tsy $42B 10Y Note auction (91282CMM0)
- 12-Feb 1400 Federal Budget Balance (-$86.7B, -$94.8B)
- 12-Feb 1705 Fed Gov Waller on Stablecoins (text, Q&A)
