US STOCKS: Midday Equity Roundup: Cautious Optimism
Apr-15 15:45
- Stocks are holding moderately firmer ahead midday, cautious carry-over support from Monday as markets mull potential tariff relief or temporary pause in auto levies. Currently, the DJIA trades up up 66.14 points (0.16%) at 40585.61, S&P E-Minis up 15.5 points (0.28%) at 5456, Nasdaq up 43.4 points (0.3%) at 16872.61.
- A mix of banks, interactive media and tech stocks led gainers in the first half: Netflix gained 5.56% in early trade. Financial sector gainers included Bank of America +4.28%, Huntington Bancshares +3.16%, Wells Fargo +3.04% and Blackstone +2.94%.
- Tech stocks followed with Hewlett Packard Enterprise +4.69%, Palantir Technologies +4.22% and Crowdstrike Holdings +4.21%.
- The Health Care sector underperformed in early trade after Pres Trump target pharmaceuticals for trade probes late Monday: Albemarle Corp -3.38%, Molina Healthcare -3.09%, Zimmer Biomet Holdings -2.32%, Moderna -2.16%, Bristol-Myers Squibb -1.91%.
- Earnings expected late Tuesday include: Interactive Brokers, JB Hunt Transport, United Airlines and Omnicom Group. The following are expected to announce Wednesday: First Horizon Corp, Citizens Financial, Progressive Corp, US Bancorp, Prologis, Abbott Laboratories, Kinder Morgan, CSX Corp and Alcoa.
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FED: March Economic Projections: Higher Inflation, Weaker Growth, Same Rates
Mar-14 21:28
The MNI Markets Team’s expectations for the updated Economic Projections in the March SEP are below.
- The unemployment rate is likely to rise slightly for 2025 alongside a downgrade in GDP growth, while the 2025 core and headline PCE inflation projections are set to rise again. Changes to later years will likely be limited, however.
- More detail on the shift in Fed funds rate medians is in our meeting preview - we will add more color next week.
FED: Market Pricing Nearly 3 2025 Cuts As Conditions Tighten
Mar-14 21:25
Amid rising government policy uncertainty, sentiment among businesses and consumers has fallen sharply since the start of the year, while equities and the dollar have reversed their post-election rise. Overall, financial conditions have tightened, even if stress is not yet mounting, e.g. no major widening of credit spreads (the accompanying chart shows the Fed’s financial conditions impulse index but only through January).
- Combined with growth fears, this has affected expectations for the Fed’s rate path, with around 18bp more cuts expected in 2025 compared with what was seen after the January FOMC. 65bp of cuts are priced for the year as a whole. 2025 cut pricing reached 71bp before the February inflation data and 76bp before the February payrolls report.
- A rate cut is seen with near zero probability for March’s meeting, but the first full cut is just about priced for June, with a second nearly priced by September.
- Chair Powell has no reason to endorse or refute these expectations – he’s likely to be happy with a press conference that ends with little discernable change in pricing.
CANADA'S CARNEY ANNOUNCES ELIMINATION OF THE CONSUMER CARBON TAX
Mar-14 21:17
- CANADA'S CARNEY ANNOUNCES ELIMINATION OF THE CONSUMER CARBON TAX
