OIL: Mideast Tanker Surplus Slumps

Bloomberg reports that US President Donald Trump "is readying an announcement on auto levies as soon as Wednesday, according to people familiar with the matter, a move that would escalate his fight with global trading partners ahead of a broader tariff push next week. The people shared the timing of the expected announcement on condition of anonymity, to discuss plans not yet made public. One of the people, though, cautioned that the president’s plans could still shift.[...] The level and scope of the auto tariffs are not clear, including what, if any, exemptions would be included or considered. It’s also unclear if the tariffs would go into effect immediately or over time...."

• Earlier, MNI's Policy team reported that European Trade Commissioner Maros Sefcovic offered a package of measures, including the potential elimination of tariffs on US cars, to try and head off the 2 April 'reciprocal' tariffs. For access contact sales@marketnews.com. The EU has sought to avoid major escalation with the Trump admin having delayed its retaliation until mid-April to allow for more talks.
• As has often been the case with the rhetoric surrounding the imposition of tariffs, it remains to be seen what countries may be hit, what levels the levies would come in at, and when they would come into force.
• Speaking on Newsmax on 25 March, Trump said regarding the 2 April tariffs that “I’ll probably be more lenient than reciprocal, because if I was reciprocal, that would be very tough for people,”

The possibility of a US auto tariff announcement as soon as today (albeit with some uncertainty around the timing still present) pulls Eurostoxx 50 futures to fresh session lows, providing a tailwind for Bunds.

• Trump has previously threatened the EU with 25% auto tariffs from April 2, with the potential for an earlier announcement seemingly catching markets off guard a little.
• EU auto exports to the US were worth 0.3% GDP in 2024, but a more notable 0.8% in Germany.
• Bund futures are +4 ticks at 128.17 at typing, up from session lows of 127.99.  Today’s high of 128.36 remains some way off for now.
• The risk-off price action sees BTP/Bund widening extend a little, now 1bp wider today at 110.5bps.

NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte has stated in remarks in Warsaw that the United States and Europe must avoid the urge to “go it alone” despite “questions about the strength of the transatlantic bond.”

• Rutte says although there has been “tough rhetoric” and “difficult debates between Europe and America,” this is "not the time to go it alone. Not for Europe or for North America. The global security challenges are too great… There is no alternative to NATO.”
• Rutte adds, likely in reference to recent suggestions that France and the UK could provide a European nuclear deterrence: “Nothing can replace America’s nuclear umbrella.”
• Rutte says he is “absolutely confident” the US remains committed to NATO and Article 5, citing President Trump’s statements affirming his support and “strong bipartisan support” in the US Congress.
• Rutte's comments come amid unprecedented strain within the alliance, with the EU and Canada bracing for additional tariffs on April 2, and comments by Trump administration officials in a leaked Signal chat group suggesting deep animosity towards Europe.
• The New York Times reports that Europeans reacted “with a mix of exasperation and anger” to the Signal story, noting that Europe, “has been on alert" since Vance's speech in Munich last month questioned European values and its democracy.
• One point of tension may have been defused. Vance is expected to visit a US airbase in Greenland tomorrow but the trip has been scaled back following a forceful response from Copenhagen and Nuuk.