GBP: Mild USD Strength Exposes GBP, EUR/GBP Edges to New Highs

With Bund at session lows, some desks will be eyeing the Psychological 132.00 level, but most investors will be looking at the 2.50% level in Yield.

Today reference 132.16:

• 2.50% = 131.78 (the main initial level to watch).

Following the 6 Jan announcement by PM Justin Trudeau that he would be resigning as leader of the governing centre-left Liberal Party of Canada (LPC), focus has turned to who could emerge as his successor as LPC leader and as such prime minister. While nobody has even yet declared their candidacy, political betting markets are showing two early favourites in the form of former finance minister and deputy PM Chrystia Freeland and former BoC and BoE governor Mark Carney. Data from Polymarket shows bettors assigning a 44% implied probability Carney wins the LPC leadership, with Freeland a little behind on 37%. In third and fourth place respectively are incumbent Finance Minister Dominic LeBlanc (10%) and Foreign Minister Melanie Joly (4.6%). 

• The latest polling from Angus Reid, carried out prior to Trudeau's announcement, shows Freeland as the prospective candidate that might be best positioned to increase the Liberals' vote share the most. A poll carried out on a sample of 2,406 respondents from 27-31 Dec showed a Trudeau-led LPC winning 13% support, compared to 14% with Carney in charge, 16% with Joly, and 21% with Freeland.
• Much like prospective candidates, the LPC party machinery must also grind into gear. Party president Sachit Mehra confirmed a meeting of the LPC national board of directors to take place this week. The process can be sped up due to 'political circumstances', but the 11 weeks between now and the end of prorogation on 24 March would still be seen as a major truncation of a leadership race. 

Chart 1. Betting Market Implied Probability of Winning LPC Leadership, %

Source: Polymarket

• USDJPY is still pushing lower despite the move higher in US Yields, this is more of a pure FX move, with broader USD selling interest so far today.
• Next support is seen much further out, down to 156.05 (20 day EMA).
• While the US 10yr Yield is doing very little so far today, focus remain on the longer end 30yr after it tested its highest level since November 2023 Yesterday.
• Immediate support is WNA is at 117.16, which is testing now at the time of typing.
• Worth a reminder regarding the 10yr Yield, Yesterday saw one of the First HUGE outright Option targeting 5%.
• TYH5 106 put was bought for 14 Yesterday in 100k, and the 106.00 level in future equates circa 5% in Yield terms.