ARGENTINA: Milei Appoints Supreme Court Judges, Finance Secretary Quirno At G-20
- President Milei named Ariel Lijo and Manuel Garcia-Mansilla to the Supreme Court by decree yesterday, according to a statement from the president’s press office. The statement said that Milei had bypassed the senate, which was tasked with approving the nominations, because it had failed to vote on the candidates. The government said it will keep working to ensure the judges are approved in the senate.
- No macro data are due today, following yesterday’s stronger-than-expected economic activity figures. The 5.5% y/y gain in activity in December meant that the economy shrank by 1.8% overall last year, but with a strong recovery in H2. That recovery is expected to continue this year, with Itaú looking for a 4.5% increase in GDP. In their view, the recovery of real wages and lower interest rates are likely to support private consumption growth, while the normalisation of the trade amid lower capital controls should be positive for several sectors.
- Meanwhile, Finance Secretary Pablo Quirno will participate in the G-20 meetings in Cape Town today, where he’s due to meet with World Bank President Ajay Banga and Inter-American Development Bank head Ilan Goldfajn.
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EQUITIES: DeepSeek Sell-Off Cemented, Linked Stocks Sit Sharply Lower Pre-Market
Pre-market weakness in both direct and indirectly linked AI names sticks into the cash open - as DeepSeek's success undermines the AI-driven US equity rally.
Pre-market, e-mini S&P off by 2.3%, NASDAQ futs off 3.9%:
- Nvidia shares lower by 11.3%(earnings Feb 26th)
- Meta Platforms lower by 3.8% (earnings on Wednesday)
- Microsoft lower by 6.0% (earnings on Wednesday)
- Tesla lower by 4.3% (earnings on Wednesday)
That primes markets to shed over $700bln in market cap at the open across those four stocks alone. Why is Deepseek different? Deepseek's open-source, free-to-play approach twinned with highly regarded efficiency and accuracy undermines not only the revenue-generating capacity of models produced by OpenAI, Alphabet, Meta and others - but also the significant levels of investment in AI from US firms over the past five years. It also shows the ability of Chinese firms to skirt chip sanctions targeted at limiting their AI capacity.
More here: https://www.mnimarkets.com/articles/deepseek-why-is-this-app-undermining-markets-1737968390827
OPTIONS: Larger FX Option Pipeline
- EUR/USD: Jan28 $1.0400(E1.0bln), $1.0500(E1.2bln)
- USD/JPY: Jan29 Y155.00($1.2bln)
- AUD/USD: Jan28 $0.6300(A$1.5bln)
- USD/CAD: Jan29 C$1.4500($1.1bln)
OUTLOOK: Price Signal Summary - Short-Term Bull Cycle In Gilts Remains Intact
- In the FI space, the pullback from recent highs in Bund futures appears corrective and a short-term bull cycle is in play for now. The Jan 15 rally highlighted a reversal signal - a bullish engulfing candle. It continues to suggest scope for a corrective phase that is allowing an oversold trend condition to unwind. Sights are on 132.15, the 20-day EMA. A clear breach of the average would strengthen the bullish theme. The bear trigger is at 130.28, the Jan 15 low. Initial support lies at 131.00, the Jan 16 / 24 low.
- The medium-term trend condition in Gilt futures remains bearish. However, recent gains continue to highlight a corrective phase and signal scope for a continuation higher near-term. The focus is on 92.75, the 50.0% retracement of the Dec 3 - Jan 13 bear leg. Initial support is at 91.10, the Jan 20 low.
