OI data points to a mix of net long setting and net short cover in Euribor futures on Monday. Euribor rallied alongside Bunds amid tension within German fiscal negotiations and broader risk-off sentiment related to US growth fears.
| 10/03/2025 | 07/03/2025 | Daily OI Change | Daily OI Change In Packs | ||
| ERM5 | 558,314 | 556,341 | +1,973 | Whites | +43,197 |
| ERU5 | 816,603 | 813,811 | +2,792 | Reds | -3,009 |
| ERZ5 | 581,847 | 557,264 | +24,583 | Greens | -410 |
| ERH6 | 666,517 | 652,668 | +13,849 | Blues | +6,491 |
| ERM6 | 454,974 | 448,147 | +6,827 | ||
| ERU6 | 358,367 | 357,761 | +606 | ||
| ERZ6 | 251,962 | 257,856 | -5,894 | ||
| ERH7 | 324,516 | 329,064 | -4,548 | ||
| ERM7 | 178,966 | 185,679 | -6,713 | ||
| ERU7 | 156,723 | 155,240 | +1,483 | ||
| ERZ7 | 118,379 | 117,152 | +1,227 | ||
| ERH8 | 149,276 | 145,683 | +3,593 | ||
| ERM8 | 65,862 | 60,392 | +5,470 | ||
| ERU8 | 46,002 | 45,450 | +552 | ||
| ERZ8 | 33,438 | 33,894 | -456 | ||
| ERH9 | 43,436 | 42,511 | +925 |
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The Aussie 10-yr futures contract continues to trade below the Dec 11 high of 95.851. A stronger bearish theme would expose 95.275, the Nov 14 low and a key support. Clearance of this level would strengthen a bearish theme. For bulls, a confirmed reversal and a breach of 95.851, the Dec 11 high, would instead reinstate a bull cycle and refocus attention on resistance at 96.207, a Fibonacci retracement point.
Gov Kugler (permanent voter, leans dovish) said Friday that rates were likely to be held for "some time" - making her the latest FOMC participant to express little impetus for a cut in the near-term.
The Federal Reserve posted positive net earnings in the week to Feb 5, the first time it has done so since September 2022. The $0.4B uptick compares with an average of negative $1.3B over the preceding 6 months.
