STIR: Mix Of Positioning Swings In SOFR Futures Early This Week
Jan-22 11:01
OI data points to two distinct groups of positioning swings between Friday and Tuesday settlement, as the SOFR futures strip twist flattened.
- A mix of net long cover and short setting out to SFRH6.
- Short cover then dominated in SFRH7 through SFRU7, as well as in SFRH8.
| 21-Jan-25 | 17-Jan-25 | Daily OI Change |
| Daily OI Change In Packs |
SFRZ4 | 1,074,245 | 1,081,078 | -6,833 | Whites | -23,878 |
SFRH5 | 1,171,685 | 1,169,577 | +2,108 | Reds | +71,578 |
SFRM5 | 1,013,084 | 1,001,937 | +11,147 | Greens | -9,020 |
SFRU5 | 785,951 | 816,251 | -30,300 | Blues | -1,247 |
SFRZ5 | 993,979 | 980,033 | +13,946 |
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SFRH6 | 685,917 | 640,434 | +45,483 |
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SFRM6 | 659,503 | 650,621 | +8,882 |
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SFRU6 | 616,484 | 613,217 | +3,267 |
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SFRZ6 | 708,189 | 706,589 | +1,600 |
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SFRH7 | 488,348 | 494,931 | -6,583 |
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SFRM7 | 405,083 | 407,024 | -1,941 |
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SFRU7 | 294,429 | 296,525 | -2,096 |
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SFRZ7 | 268,748 | 267,835 | +913 |
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SFRH8 | 208,702 | 217,539 | -8,837 |
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SFRM8 | 175,026 | 171,574 | +3,452 |
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SFRU8 | 113,306 | 110,081 | +3,225 |
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STIR: SOFR FX - 23/12/24
Dec-23 11:00
| SOFR FIX - Source BBG/CME | ||
| 1M | 4.33874 | 0.0022 |
| 3M | 4.32594 | -0.00148 |
| 6M | 4.27159 | -0.00462 |
| 12M | 4.21088 | -0.01309 |
OUTLOOK: Price Signal Summary - Corrective Cycle In S&P E-Minis Remains In Play
Dec-23 10:55
- A sell-off in the S&P E-Minis contract on Dec 18 highlights a short-term top and a corrective cycle. The move down resulted in a breach of the 20- and 50-day EMAs. A resumption of weakness would open 5811.65, 38.2% of the Aug 5 - Dec 6 bull leg. Support at 5921.00, Nov 19 low, has been pierced. A clear break of it would strengthen a bearish threat. Initial resistance is 6067.90, the 20-day EMA. A clear break of it would be a bullish development.
- A bull cycle in the EUROSTOXX 50 futures contract remains intact, however, the recent move down highlights a corrective cycle and a short-term bear threat remains present - for now. Price has traded through the 50-day EMA, at 4922.49. The Dec 20 sell-off resulted in a print below 4846.57, 61.8% of the Nov 21 - Dec 9 bull cycle. Key short-term resistance has been defined at 5040.00, the Dec 9 high. Initial resistance is at 4935.29, the 20-day EMA.
EGB FUNDING UPDATE: Greece 2025 Funding Plan
Dec-23 10:46
- The PDMA notes that Greece's cash reserves amount to E33bln (3 years of financing needs).
- Financing needs for 2025 total E15.283bln (E5.54bln from MT/LT redemptions, E4.75bln interest on debt, E5.29bln of early repayments (including T-bill stock reduction), E5.496bln from other cash requirements (RRF loans, capital increases etc). This is partially offset by a projected primary surplus of E5.793bln.
- Financing sources:
- GGB issuance: E8.000bln (down from E10.0bln in 2024 plan, E9.55bln executed).
- Other financing sources (NGEU, EIB, CEB, etc.): E3.027bln
- Proceeds from equity and investment fund shares E564mln
- Decrease in cash reserves: E3.692bln
