STIR: Mix Of Short Setting & Long Cover In SOFR Futures On Wednesday

SFIM5 95.85/95.65ps 1x2 with SFIU5 96.00/95.70ps 1x2, bought the strip for 5.25 in 2.5k.

European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, speaking at the EU Ambassadors Conference in Brussels, has stated that the European Union, “might have to engage in tough negotiations, even with long-time partners.”

• Von der Leyen said that the threat of a North American trade war has shown "how quickly things can escalate,” conceding that, “there will be an increased use and threat of economic coercion tools such as tariffs”.
• Von der Leyen said: “We are well into an era of hyper-competitive and hyper-transactional geopolitics… Europe must make calculated judgments about what is in its own interest in the world as it is today.”
• Von der Leyen added that the “primary focus” for the EU, “has to be to avoid a race to the bottom… We will be open and pragmatic in how to achieve that. But we will make it equally clear that we will always protect our own interests –however, and whenever that is needed."
• On the US, von der Leyen said: “Jobs, businesses, industries in EU and US rely on the transatlantic relationship,” but the EU, “will be ready for tough negotiations with the US where needed and to find solutions where possible.”
• On China, von der Leyen said the EU, “will keep de-risking economic relationship with China, but has room to engage constructively… EU can find agreements that could even expand trade and investment ties with China.”

• In FX, EURUSD recovered from Monday’s intraday low, however, for now, gains are considered corrective. Yesterday’s fresh cycle low, highlights a resumption of the downtrend. Moving average studies are in a bear-mode position and attention is on 1.0138, the 1.764 projection of the Sep 25 - Oct 23 - Nov 5 price swing. Clearance of this level would open 1.0031, the 2.00 projection. Initial resistance is 1.0350, the Jan 31 low and Monday’s high.
• Despite a recovery from Monday’s low, the latest pullback in GBPUSD highlights a bearish threat. The move down signals the end of the Jan 13 - 27 correction and note too that resistance at 1.2504, the 50-day EMA, remains intact. Furthermore, MA studies are in a bear-mode position highlighting a dominant downtrend. A continuation lower would open 1.2100, the Jan 13 low and bear trigger. A clear break of the 50-day EMA would alter the picture.
• USDJPY is in consolidation mode. The primary trend condition is bullish, however, the Jan 27 move down highlights a stronger bear threat. The pair has breached the 50-day EMA and a trendline drawn from the Sep 16 ‘24 low. A resumption of the bear leg would open 152.55, 61.8% of the Dec 3 - Jan 10 bull leg. Initial firm resistance is at 156.75, the Jan 23 high. Clearance of this hurdle would be a bullish development.