MNI BOE Preview - February 2024: The end of the tightening bias?

• The February MPC meeting will almost certainly see Bank Rate left on hold at 5.25% but there are three significant aspects of the decision that will be closely watched by markets – the vote split, the guidance and the forecasts.
• The Bank continues to reiterate that it is data dependent, and the story in the data has changed since both the November MPR forecasts were made and also since the December MPC meeting.
• On the vote: We still look for 1-2 hawkish dissenters and assign a 40% probability to Dhingra voting for a cut at this meeting.
• We expect the tightening bias to be removed from the Monetary Policy Statement, while “finely balanced” is likely to be erased from the Minutes. But the rest of the guidance is likely to stay intact.
• We have read through and summarised over 20 analyst previews. There is a huge split of opinion on what could happen to both the vote, guidance and the forecasts at this meeting.

MNI BoE Preview - Feb24.pdf