MNI BRIEF: 70% Chance of Exceeding 2025 Inflation Target - BCB

The Central Bank of Brazil sees a 70% chance of inflation exceeding the upper limit of its target tolerance range in 2025, according to its first quarter Monetary Policy Report released Thursday, up from a 50% probability in its fourth quarter report.

The probability of exceeding the target increased also for 2026, from 26% to 28%.

"Since the projections are above the target, the probability of exceeding the upper bound is higher than that of falling below the lower bound", the document said. The goal is 3% with a tolerance range of 1.5 points of percentage up or down.

The inflation forecast for 2025 by monetary policy committee Copom increased for 5.1% in the baseline scenario from 4.5% in the last report. (See MNI INTERVIEW: BCB Might Cut Sooner as Activity Slows - Serra)