MNI: China-US Negotiations Likely Soon- Chinese Advisors

Trade negotiations between China and the U.S. are likely to start soon given President Donald Trump’s penchant for dealmaking, but a quick settlement looks difficult, with China calculating that the U.S. position will be weakened by a deterioration of its economy and markets, Chinese policy advisors told MNI.

Trump’s move to impose an additional 34% tariff on Beijing follows his known pattern of first applying maximum pressure before commencing to bargain, said Ding Yifan, researcher at the World Development Research Institute of the State Council, who expected discussions to get underway soon.

However, as with Trump’s efforts on Russia-Ukraine talks, several rounds of meetings may deliver little success as China will not make concessions easily, Ding continued.

“Any agreement will take a long time given the huge economic impact at stake,” Ding said, highlighting Washington’s position was weakened by its having alienated its global partners including the European Union. (See MNI: China To Hit Back Against US, Seek Europe)

US ECONOMIC PRESSURE

Negotiations will likely take more than three months ,with China not hurrying to reach an agreement, according to Dong Shaopeng, president of the Beijing Silk-Road Cooperation Association and advisor to the China Securities Regulatory Commission Investor Education Base.

“China has never avoided U.S. negotiations, but will ensure Washington does not take the lead,” Dong said, adding that China will at the same time seek to deepen trade ties with other partners. (See MNI INTERVIEW2: China-U.S Trade Deal Possible)

The U.S. economy is set to deteriorate as inflation jumps and the stock market declines, strengthening China’s negotiating position, said Wang Dong, professor and executive director at the Institute for Global Cooperation and Understanding at Peking University.

The U.S. administration will also have to contend with concerns over a potential revolt of Republican voters at midterm elections at the end of 2026, he added.

“Washington's hope of pressuring Beijing will ultimately backfire,” Wang said.