CZECHIA: MNI CNB Review - Feb 2025: Unanimous Hawkish Cut
Feb-07 11:30
Executive Summary: * The Bank Board reduced the key rate by 25bp to 3.75%. * The Board's decision w...
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GILTS: Long Futures Positioning A Potential Factor In Sell Off
Jan-08 11:26
Elsewhere, a reminder that our latest positioning indicator update (published yesterday) pointed to long positioning in gilt futures. That could be adding further fuel to the sell off.
GILTS: Further Selling
Jan-08 11:24
Further weakness in gilts accompanies pressure for GBP in FX trade, with the market in price discovery mode after finding fresh multi-decade highs in 30-Year yields and registering the highest level seen since ’23 in 10-year yields.
- Yields now 2.5-5.0bp higher across the curve, while futures trade as low as 90.75.
- Technicals for 10s & futures outlined in the prior post.
- No fresh UK headline triggers, but continued erosion of already limited fiscal headroom adds to wider pressure stemming from a reassessment of global term premium, hawkish U.S. data and a heavy start to ’25 IG supply, as well as medium-term structural headwinds for gilts.
- SONIA futures +0.5 to -9.0. Dec low in SFIZ5 untested. Nov low in SFIZ6 broken.
PIPELINE: Wednesday Data Calendar: ADP, Jobless Claims, FOMC Minutes, 30Y R/O
Jan-08 11:22
- US Data/Speaker Calendar (prior, estimate)
- 8-Jan 0700 MBA Mortgage Applications
- 8-Jan 0815 ADP Employment Change (146k, 139k)
- 8-Jan 0830 Fed Gov Waller eco-outlook (text, Q&A)
- 8-Jan 0830 Initial Jobless Claims (211k, 215k)
- 8-Jan 0830 Continuing Claims (1.844M, 1.860M)
- 8-Jan 1000 Wholesale Trade Sales MoM (-0.1%, 0.2%)
- 8-Jan 1000 Wholesale Inventories MoM (-0.2%, -0.2%)
- 8-Jan 1130 US Tsy $64B 17W bill auction
- 8-Jan 1300 US Tsy $22B 30Y re-open (912810UE6)
- 8-Jan 1400 Dec FOMC Meeting Minutes
- 8-Jan 1500 Consumer Credit ($19.239B, $10.500B)
