MNI DAILY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - AUD Within Range of Key Level

Price Signal Summary – AUD Within Range of Key Level 

• S&P E-Minis have faded sharply off intraday highs Thursday, but remain firm and hold the bulk of the recent phase of strength. Attention remains on resistance at 6162.25, the Jan 24 high. The trend condition in Eurostoxx 50 futures remains bullish, with prices edging to a new alltime high on the continuation contract this week. The move higher last week confirmed once again, a resumption of the uptrend. 
• AUDUSD again traded stronger again early Friday, rallying to a new recovery high and narrowing the gap with key resistance ahead at 0.6414 - marking both the 100-dma as well as the 38.2% retracement of the Sep 30 ‘24 - Feb 3 bear leg. USDJPY reversed further and harder Thursday, taking out both the bear trigger at the Feb 07 low of 150.93 as well as the 1.0% 10-dma envelope. Clearance of these levels and a close below resumes the bear cycle that started on Jan 10th. A bull cycle in GBPUSD remains in play and the pair is building well on recent gains. The recent breach of resistance at 1.2550, the Feb 5 high, confirmed a resumption of the current uptrend.    
• A bull cycle in Gold remains in play and the yellow metal continues to hold on to the bulk of its recent gains. Fresh highs once again confirm a resumption of the uptrend and maintain the bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. WTI futures traded firmer Wednesday, before fading into the close and confirming the still-present bear threat. Earlier this week, price pulled back from the recent high and has again traded below the 50-day EMA - at $71.62.
• Bund futures are trading lower again, as the contract extends the reversal that started Feb 5. Price is through an important short-term support at 132.12, a trendline drawn from the Jan 15 low. A bull cycle in Gilt futures has moderated, but remains the underlying theme, meaning recent weakness appears corrective for now. The climb on Feb 13 is a positive development and appears to be a bullish engulfing candle pattern.

FOREIGN EXCHANGE    

EURUSD TECHS: Off Highs, But Bull Theme Remains

• RES 4: 1.0630 High Dec 6   
• RES 3: 1.0594 Dec 9 ‘24
• RES 2: 1.0533 High Jan 27 and a reversal trigger
• RES 1: 1.0514 High Feb 14
• PRICE: 1.0495 @ 07:55 GMT Feb 21
• SUP 1: 1.0408 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: 1.0280/0141 Low Feb 10 / 3 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: 1.0138 1.764 proj of the Sep 25 - Oct 23 - Nov 5 price swing
• SUP 4: 1.0031 2.00 proj of the Sep 25 - Oct 23 - Nov 5 price swing

The bull cycle in EURUSD remains intact despite the fade off highs this week. The pair is trading closer to its recent highs and recent strength has reinforced current conditions to strengthen a short-term reversal signal. The Feb 3 candle resembles a hammer and suggests scope for an extension near-term. The pair has breached the 50-day EMA, at 1.0435, and sights are on 1.0533, the Jan 27 high. Initial firm support lies at 1.0280, the Feb 10 low.   

GBPUSD TECHS: Builds on Recent Gains         

• RES 4: 1.2811 High Dec 6 
• RES 3: 1.2809 2.0% 10-dma envelope
• RES 2: 1.2767 50.0% retracement of the Sep 26 ‘24 - Jan 13 bear leg 
• RES 1: 1.2679 High Feb 19
• PRICE: 1.2671 @ 07:56 GMT Feb 21
• SUP 1: 1.2490 20-day EMA     
• SUP 2: 1.2333/2249 Low Feb 11 / 3 and a key short-term support
• SUP 3: 1.2161 Low Jan 17 / 20
• SUP 4: 1.2100 Low Jan 10 and the bear trigger   

A bull cycle in GBPUSD remains in play and the pair is building well on recent gains. The recent breach of resistance at 1.2550, the Feb 5 high, confirmed a resumption of the current uptrend. Furthermore, 1.2610, 38.2% of the Sep 26 ‘24 - Jan 13 bear leg, has given way. A continuation higher would strengthen current conditions and open 1.2767, the 50.0% retracement. Key short-term support is 1.2333, the Feb 11 low.               

EURGBP TECHS: Pivot Resistance Stays Intact For Now                  

• RES 4: 0.8474 High Jan 20 and a key resistance    
• RES 3: 0.8420 76.4% retracement of the Jan 20 - Feb 3 bear leg  
• RES 2: 0.8388 61.8% retracement of the Jan 20 - Feb 3 bear leg  
• RES 1: 0.8347/78 50-day EMA / High Jan 6 and pivot resistance   
• PRICE: 0.8282 @ 07:59 GMT Feb 21
• SUP 1: 0.8266/8248 Low Feb 19 / 3 and bear trigger
• SUP 2: 0.8223 Low Dec 19 and a key support  
• SUP 3: 0.8203 Low Mar 7 ‘22 and a lowest point of a multi-year range   
• SUP 4: 0.8163 123.6% retracement of the Dec 19 - Jan 20 bull leg 

EURGBP trades rangebound early Friday. The early February bounce still appears to have undermined a recent bearish threat. Attention is on 0.8378, the Jan 6 high and a key short-term pivot resistance. Clearance of it would strengthen a bullish condition and signal scope for a stronger recovery. For bears, a resumption of weakness would once again refocus attention on 0.8248, the Feb 3 low and the bear trigger.    

USDJPY TECHS: Cleanly Through Bear Trigger 

• RES 4: 158.87 High Jan 10 and a bull trigger   
• RES 3: 156.75 High Jan 23 
• RES 2: 155.89 High Feb 3 
• RES 1: 154.05/80 50-day EMA and a pivot resistance / High Feb 12       
• PRICE: 150.52 @ 08:01 GMT Feb 21
• SUP 1: 149.29 Low Feb 21
• SUP 2: 148.88 2.0% 10-dma envelope
• SUP 3: 148.65 Low Dec 3 ‘24 and a key support 
• SUP 4: 148.01 Low Oct 9 ‘24

USDJPY reversed further and harder Thursday, taking out both the bear trigger at the Feb 07 low of 150.93 as well as the 1.0% 10-dma envelope. Clearance of these levels and a close below resumes the bear cycle that started on Jan 10th, opening 148.65 as the next downside mark and key support. Recent weakness off highs highlights the importance and effectiveness of the 50-day EMA as resistance - today at 153.88. A clear break of the EMA is required to confirm a stronger bullish reversal. This would open 155.89, the Feb 3 high. 

EURJPY TECHS: Reverses Hard Off Resistance  

• RES 4: 164.08 High Jan 24  
• RES 3: 162.71 76.4% retracement of the Dec 30 - Feb 10 bear leg     
• RES 2: 162.49 High Jan 29
• RES 1: 160.69/161.19 50-day EMA / High Feb 13
• PRICE: 157.88 @ 08:05 GMT Feb 21
• SUP 1: 156.32/155.61 Low Feb 20 / 10 and the bear trigger 
• SUP 2: 155.15 Low Sep 16 ‘24
• SUP 3: 154.42 Low Aug 5 ‘24 and key medium-term support
• SUP 4: 153.87 Low Dec 14 ‘23

EURJPY has pulled back further from its recent high. For now, resistance at 160.55, the 50-day EMA, remains intact. It has been pierced, however, a clear break is required to strengthen a bullish condition and signal scope for an extension towards 162.71, a Fibonacci retracement. For bears, a stronger reversal would refocus attention on 155.61, the Feb 10 low and a bear trigger. Clearance of this level would resume the downtrend.  

AUDUSD TECHS: Narrowing in on 100-dma

• RES 4: 0.6471 High Dec 9 ‘24 
• RES 3: 0.6429 High Dec 12 ‘24               
• RES 2: 0.6414 38.2% retracement of the Sep 30 ‘24 - Feb 3 bear leg 
• RES 1: 0.6409 High Feb 21
• PRICE: 0.6392 @ 08:07 GMT Feb 21
• SUP 1: 0.6312/6231 50-day EMA / Low Feb 10 
• SUP 3: 0.6171/6088 Low Feb 4 / 3
• SUP 3: 0.6045 1.500 proj of the Sep 30 - Nov 6 - 7 price swing
• SUP 4: 0.6000 Round number support

AUDUSD again traded stronger again early Friday, rallying to a new recovery high and narrowing the gap with key resistance ahead at 0.6414 - marking both the 100-dma as well as the 38.2% retracement of the Sep 30 ‘24 - Feb 3 bear leg. Clearance here opens the next leg higher for the pair, making 0.6429 the next target. The 50-day EMA undercuts as support, crossing at 0.6312.

USDCAD TECHS: Bearish Theme

• RES 4: 1.4948 High Mar 2003
• RES 3: 1.4814 High Apr 2003 
• RES 2: 1.4503/1.4793 High Fb 4 / 3 and key resistance
• RES 1: 1.4380 High Feb 10     
• PRICE: 1.4181 @ 08:09 GMT Feb 21
• SUP 1: 1.4107 50.0% retracement of the Sep 25 ‘24 - Feb 3 bull cycle
• SUP 2: 1.4011 Low Dec 5 ‘24
• SUP 3: 1.3944 61.8% retracement of the Sep 25 ‘24 - Feb 3 bull cycle
• SUP 4: 1.3894 Low Nov 11 ‘24

USDCAD is off lows, but remains toward the weaker end of the recent range. The pair has cleared key support at 1.4261, the Jan 20 low. This strengthens a bearish theme and signals scope for an extension of the current bear cycle - a correction. Scope is seen for a move towards 1.4107, a Fibonacci retracement. Initial firm resistance to watch is 1.4380, the Feb 10 high. A move above this hurdle would highlight an early bullish reversal signal. 

FIXED INCOME

BUND TECHS: (H5) Has Cleared Trendline Support        

• RES 4: 134.54 61.8% retracement of the Dec 2 - Jan 14 bear leg           
• RES 3: 133.71 High Feb 5 and a reversal trigger  
• RES 2: 132.97 High Feb 13 and a key near-term resistance 
• RES 1: 132.59 20-day EMA                 
• PRICE: 131.67 @ 07:24 GMT Feb 21
• SUP 1: 131.26 Low Feb 19
• SUP 2: 131.00 Low Jan 24 and a key short-term support             
• SUP 3: 130.28 Low Jan 15 and the bear trigger
• SUP 4: 130.11 1.236 proj of the Oct 1 - Nov 6 - Dec 2 ‘24 price swing    

Bund futures are trading lower again, as the contract extends the reversal that started Feb 5. Price is through an important short-term support at 132.12, a trendline drawn from the Jan 15 low. The breach strengthens a bearish theme, particularly with the extension through 131.59 yesterday, a Fibonacci retracement. Below 131.59, lies 131.00, the Jan 25 low and a key support. Initial firm resistance to watch is 132.97, the Feb 13 high.                            

BOBL TECHS: (H5) Cracks Trendline Support

• RES 4: 118.258 61.8% retracement of the Dec 2 - Jan 14 bear leg         
• RES 3: 117.980 High Feb 3 / 5 and a reversal trigger    
• RES 2: 117.600 High Feb 13 and a key short-term resistance    
• RES 1: 117.418 20-day EMA                            
• PRICE: 117.080 @ 07:28 GMT Feb 21
• SUP 1: 116.870 Low Feb 19
• SUP 2: 116.700 Low Jan 30 
• SUP 3: 116.550 Low Jan 24  
• SUP 4: 116.280 Low Jan 14 / 15 and  key support       

Bobl futures remain in a short-term corrective cycle and the contract has extended to new lows. Price has recently traded through support at the 20-day EMA - at 117.430, but more consequentially trendline support drawn from the Jan 15 low at 117.048 has given way. Clearance of the trendline would strengthen a bearish threat and open 116.700, the Jan 30 low. Initial firm resistance to watch is 117.600, the Feb 13 high.             

SCHATZ TECHS: (H5) Corrective Cycle Extends                

• RES 4: 107.045 High Feb 3 and a reversal trigger  
• RES 3: 106.975 High Feb 10     
• RES 2: 106.855 High Feb 12 and a key near-term resistance  
• RES 1: 106.766 20-day EMA          
• PRICE: 106.700 @ 07:32 GMT Feb 21   
• SUP 1: 106.630 Low Feb 20
• SUP 2: 106.600 Low Jan 31
• SUP 3: 106.515 Low Jan 30 
• SUP 4: 106.435 Low Jan 15 and key support  

A bull cycle that began Jan 15 in Schatz futures remains in play, marking the pullback from the early February highs as corrective - for now. However, the contract maintains a softer short-term tone and this highlights potential for a deeper retracement. A continuation lower would open 106.600 next, the Jan 31 low. For bulls, initial firm resistance to watch is 106.855, the Feb 12 high. A break would highlight an early bullish reversal signal.                                          

GILT TECHS: (H5) Bull Theme Moderates

• RES 4: 95.57 High Dec 11 ‘24 
• RES 3: 95.11 High Dec 12 ‘24   
• RES 2: 94.75 76.4% retracement of the Dec 3 - Jan 13 bear leg
• RES 1: 93.71/94.35 High Feb 10 / 6 and the bull trigger                  
• PRICE: 92.01 @ Close Feb 20
• SUP 1: 91.78 Low Feb 20                                 
• SUP 2: 91.52 Low Jan 24
• SUP 3: 91.10 Low Jan 20
• SUP 4: 89.68/88.96 Low Jan 15 / 13 and the bear trigger

A bull cycle in Gilt futures has moderated, but remains the underlying theme, meaning recent weakness appears corrective for now. The climb on Feb 13 is a positive development and appears to be a bullish engulfing candle pattern. A continuation higher would open 94.35, the Feb 6 high and a bull trigger. Clearance of this level would open 94.75, the 76.4% retracement of the Dec 3 - Jan 13 bear leg. The next firm support to watch lies at 91.52, the Jan 24 low.                      

BTP TECHS: (H5) Pullback Appears Corrective                         

• RES 4: 123.34 High Dec 11       
• RES 3: 122.85 High Dec 12  
• RES 2: 121.88 76.4% retracement of the Dec 11 - Jan 13 bear leg  
• RES 1: 120.98/121.00 61.8% of Dec 11 - Jan 13 bear leg / High Feb 7    
• PRICE: 119.38 @ 07:39 GMT Feb 21 
• SUP 1: 118.95 Low Feb 19
• SUP 2: 118.65/117.16 Low Jan 24 / 13 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: 116.59 76.4% retrace of the Jun - Dec ‘24 bull cycle (cont)
• SUP 4: 116.07 Low Jul 8 ‘24 (cont)    

A bullish cycle in BTP futures remains intact and the latest pullback appears corrective - for now. Attention is on 120.98 (pierced) and 121.88, Fibonacci retracement points. On the downside, initial key support to watch lies at 118.65, the Jan 24 low. Clearance of this price point would highlight a reversal and the end of the corrective bull cycle. First support lies at 119.20, the Jan 31 low.          

EQUITIES

EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: (H5) Alltime Highs

• RES 4: 5606.00 3.000 proj of the Dec 20 ‘24 - Jan 8 - 13 price swing
• RES 3: 5574.57 2.382 proj of the Nov 21 - Dec 9 - 20 ‘24 price swing
• RES 2: 5565.43 2.0% 10-dma envelope   
• RES 1: 5555.00 Alltime high (cont), Feb 18            
• PRICE: 5481.00 @ 07:45 GMT Feb 21
• SUP 1: 5445.00/5325.83 Low Feb 13 / 20-day EMA            
• SUP 2: 5158.00 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: 4991.00 Low Jan 15  
• SUP 4: 4931.00 Low Jan 13 and a key short-term support  

The trend condition in Eurostoxx 50 futures remains bullish, with prices edging to a new alltime high on the continuation contract this week. The move higher last week confirmed once again, a resumption of the uptrend that started on Nov 21 ‘24. Moving average studies are in a bull mode set-up too, highlighting a dominant uptrend. Support to watch is 5325.83, the 20-day EMA.

E-MINI S&P: (H5) Strong Bounce Off Lows

• RES 4: 6205.38 0.764 proj of the Jan 13 - 24 - Feb 3 price swing     
• RES 3: 6200.00 Round number resistance 
• RES 2: 6178.75 High Dec 6 and key resistance
• RES 1: 6166.50 High Jan 24                 
• PRICE: 6135.50 @ 07:46 GMT Feb 21 
• SUP 1: 6075.54 20-day EMA           
• SUP 2: 6014.00/5935.50 Low Feb 10 / 3
• SUP 3: 5892.37 76.4% retracement of the Aug 5 - Dec 6 bull leg
• SUP 4: 5842.50 Low Jan 14

S&P E-Minis have faded sharply off intraday highs Thursday, but remain firm and hold the bulk of the recent phase of strength. Attention remains on resistance at 6162.25, the Jan 24 high. Clearance of this level would expose the key resistance at 6178.75, the Dec 6 ‘24 high. A move above this hurdle would resume the primary uptrend. On the downside, initial key support has been defined at 6014.00, the Feb 10 low. A break would highlight a bearish development.

COMMODITIES

BRENT TECHS: (J5) Set for Strong Weekly Close

• RES 4: $85.20 - 1.382 proj of the Sep 9 - Oct 7 - 29 price swing    
• RES 3: $83.97 - High Apr 12 ‘24 and a key M/T resistance
• RES 2: $83.28 - High Jul 5 and a key resistance
• RES 1: $77.34/81.20 - High Feb 3 / 15 and the bull trigger            
• PRICE: $76.27 @ 07:48 GMT Feb 21  
• SUP 1: $74.10/06 - Low Feb 6 / 13 
• SUP 2: $71.25 - Low Dec 20
• SUP 3: $70.26 - Low Dec 6
• SUP 4: $69.65 - Low Oct 29 and a key support 

Brent futures have started the Wednesday session strong, extending gains on reduced pipeline flow and OPEC+ speculation, but failing to top resistance. Initial firm resistance has been defined at $77.34, the Feb 3 high. A clear break of this level would once again highlight a bullish development. Downside focus is on support at $74.10, the Feb 6 low. A clear break of this level would undermine a bullish theme and instead highlight a stronger reversal, signalling scope for a deeper pullback, towards $71.25, the Dec 20 low. 

WTI TECHS: (J5) Bear Threat Remains Present                 

• RES 4: $83.40 - 76.4% retrace of the Jul 5 - Sep 10 bear leg (cont)    
• RES 3: $80.07 - 3.236 proj of the Nov 18 - 22 - Dec 6 price swing  
• RES 2: $79.07 - 3.000 proj of the Nov 18 - 22 - Dec 6 price swing
• RES 1: $74.36/77.86 - High Feb 19 / High Jan 15    
• PRICE: $72.26 @ 07:48 GMT Feb 21
• SUP 1: $70.20/12 - Low Feb 6 and the bear trigger / Intraday low  
• SUP 2: $67.75 - Low Dec 20 ‘24
• SUP 3: $66.41 - Low Dec 6 ‘24
• SUP 4: $65.41 - Low Oct 29 ‘24 and a key support  

WTI futures traded firmer Wednesday, before fading into the close and confirming the still-present bear threat. Earlier this week, price pulled back from the recent high and has again traded below the 50-day EMA - at $71.62. Attention is on $70.20 (pierced), the Feb 6 low. A clear break of it would undermine a bullish theme and confirm a breach of the 50-day EMA. This would strengthen a bearish threat and open $67.75, the Dec 20 ‘24 low. Key S/T resistance has been defined at $74.06, the Feb 3 high. A move above this level would reinstate a bull theme.          

GOLD TECHS: Trend Needle Points North                

• RES 4: $3000.0 - Psychological round number   
• RES 3: $2967.9 - 2.0% 10-dma envelope
• RES 2: $2962.2 - 2.00 proj of the Nov 14 - Dec 12 - 19 price swing
• RES 1: $2954.8 - High Feb 20
• PRICE: $2932.4 @ 07:51 GMT Feb 21
• SUP 1: $2864.2 - Low Feb 12  
• SUP 2: $2833.2 - 20-day EMA  
• SUP 3: $2807.3 - Low Feb 4  
• SUP 4: $2756.5 - 50-day EMA

A bull cycle in Gold remains in play and the yellow metal continues to hold on to the bulk of its recent gains. Fresh highs once again confirm a resumption of the uptrend and maintain the bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. Moving average studies are in a bull mode position too, highlighting a dominant uptrend. Sights are on the $2962.2, a Fibonacci projection. The first key support to watch is $2859.9, the 20-day EMA.                   

SILVER TECHS: Bullish Trend Condition  

• RES 4: $35.736 - 1.236 proj of the Feb 14 - Apr 12 - May 2 ‘24 swing 
• RES 3: $34.903 - High Oct 23 and the bull trigger
• RES 2: $34.000 - Round number resistance  
• RES 1: $33.450 - 76.4% of the Oct 23 - Dec 19 ‘24 bear leg                                
• PRICE: $32.972 @ 07:53 GMT Feb 21   
• SUP 1: $31.820/229 - 20- and 50-day EMA values         
• SUP 2: $29.704 - Low Jan 27 
• SUP 3: $28.748 - Low Dec 19 and bear trigger
• SUP 4: $28.446 - 76.4% retracement of the Aug 8 - Oct 23 bull cycle 

A bull theme in Silver remains intact despite the pullback from last Friday’s high. Recent gains confirm a resumption of the bull cycle that started Dec 19 and sights are on $33.450, a Fibonacci retracement. Clearance of this level would further strengthen a bull theme. On the downside, key short-term support is seen at 31.30, the 50-day EMA. A clear breach of this level would highlight a potential reversal.