MNI DAILY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - Bullish Bund Candle Supports

Price Signal Summary – Bunds Still Benefit From Bullish Candle Pattern

• The S&P E-Minis contract is firmer today and continues to trade above Monday’s low. Key short-term support to watch lies at 5961.75, the Jan 16 low (pierced). For now, the recent sharp pullback appears corrective. A bull cycle in the Eurostoxx 50 futures contract remains intact. Yesterday’s gains delivered a print above 5726.00, the Jan 24 high. The clear break of this level has confirmed a resumption of the uptrend and paved the way for 5327.90.                
• A bull cycle in GBPUSD remains in play and the pair is trading just below its recent highs. The latest pause appears to be a flag formation - a bullish continuation pattern. Attention is on the 50-day EMA, at 1.2510 and an important resistance. The primary trend condition in USDJPY is bullish. However, the Jan 27 move down highlights a stronger bear threat. The pair has breached the 50-day EMA and a trendline drawn from the Sep 16 ‘24 low. The medium-term trend condition in AUDUSD remains bearish and the pair is trading below the 50-day EMA, at 0.6314. The reversal lower from the Jan 24 high suggests the possible end of the correction between Jan 13 - 24.
• A bull cycle in Gold remains in play. This week’s extension higher has resulted in a print above $2790.1, to record a fresh all-time high. The climb confirms a resumption of the primary uptrend and maintains the bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. This week’s move down in WTI futures marks an extension of the current corrective cycle. The 20-day EMA has been breached and attention is on support around the 50-day EMA, at $72.25.       
• Recent weakness in Bund futures appears corrective and a short-term bull cycle is in play. The Jan 15 rally highlighted a reversal signal - a bullish engulfing candle - that continues to suggest scope for a corrective phase. Recent gains in Gilt futures continue to highlight a corrective phase and signal scope for a continuation higher near-term. Yesterday's high print reinforces current conditions. The contract has traded through the 20-day EMA and the focus is on 93.09, the Dec 20 high.

FOREIGN EXCHANGE    

EURUSD TECHS: Testing Support At The 20-Day EMA    

• RES 4: 1.0696 50.0% retracement of the Sep 25 - Jan 13 bear leg 
• RES 3: 1.0630 High Dec 06
• RES 2: 1.0574 38.2% retracement of the Sep 25 - Jan 13 bear leg
• RES 1: 1.0533 High Jan 27
• PRICE: 1.0388 @ 05:54 GMT Jan 31
• SUP 1: 1.0394/42 20-day EMA / Low Jan 21 
• SUP 2: 1.0260 Low Jan 15 
• SUP 3: 1.0178 Low Jan 13 and the bear trigger 
• SUP 4: 1.0138 1.764 proj of the Sep 25 - Oct 23 - Nov 5 price swing  

Despite this week’s pullback, EURUSD remains in a short-term bull cycle - a correction. Attention is on the 50-day EMA, at 1.0454. It has been pierced, a clear break of the average would strengthen bullish conditions and signal scope for a continuation higher near-term. This would open 1.0574, a Fibonacci retracement point. On the downside, a clear breach of 1.0394, the 20-day EMA, would instead signal a possible reversal.   

GBPUSD TECHS: Bull Flag    

• RES 4: 1.2667 High Dec 19 
• RES 3: 1.2610 38.2% retracement of the Sep 26 ‘24 - Jan 13 swing    
• RES 2: 1.2576 High Jan 7
• RES 1: 1.2510/23 50-day EMA / High Jan 27 
• PRICE: 1.2421 @ 06:07 GMT Jan 31
• SUP 1: 1.2400/2294 20-day EMA / Low Jan 23  
• SUP 2: 1.2229 Low Jan 21
• SUP 3: 1.2100 Low Jan 10 and the bear trigger 
• SUP 4: 1.2087 0.764 proj of the Sep 26 - Nov 22 - Dec 6 price swing    

A bull cycle in GBPUSD remains in play and the pair is trading just below its recent highs. The latest pause appears to be a flag formation - a bullish continuation pattern. Attention is on the 50-day EMA, at 1.2510 and an important resistance. Clearance of the average would highlight a stronger bull cycle. Medium-term trend signals are unchanged and  remain bearish. A reversal lower would refocus attention on 1.2100, the Jan 10 and bear trigger.         

EURGBP TECHS: Approaching Support At The 50-Day EMA              

• RES 4: 0.8545 High Aug 21  
• RES 3: 0.8530 76.4% retracement of the Aug 8 - Dec 19 downleg 
• RES 2: 0.8494 High Aug 26 ‘24
• RES 1: 0.8421/8474 High Jan 27 / 20 and the bull trigger 
• PRICE: 0.8362 @ 06:52 GMT Jan 31
• SUP 1: 0.8357 50-day EMA
• SUP 2: 0.8348 50.0% retracement of the Dec 19 - Jan 20 bull cycle
• SUP 3: 0.8318 61.8% retracement of the Dec 19 - Jan 20 bull cycle  
• SUP 4: 0.8284 Low Jan 8

The move down this week in EURGBP keeps a corrective cycle in play.  The 20-day EMA has been breached and this exposes 0.8358, the 50-day EMA. A clear breach of this EMA would highlight a stronger reversal and open 0.8318, a Fibonacci retracement. Trend signals highlight a bullish theme - moving average studies are in a bull-mode position. A reversal higher would expose the bull trigger at 0.8474, the Jan 20 high. 

USDJPY TECHS: Short-Term Bear Threat Remains Present 

• RES 4: 159.45 High Jul 12  
• RES 3: 159.26 0.618 proj of the Sep 16 - Nov 15 - Dec 3 price swing
• RES 2: 158.08/87 High Jan 15 / 10 and the bull trigger 
• RES 1: 156.75 High Jan 23       
• PRICE: 154.70 @ 06:44 GMT Jan 31
• SUP 1: 153.72/34 Low Jan 27 / Low Dec 18  
• SUP 2: 152.55 61.8% retracement of the Dec 3 - Jan 10 bull leg
• SUP 3: 151.81 Low Dec 12   
• SUP 4: 151.06 76.4% retracement of the Dec 3 - Jan 10 bull leg   

The primary trend condition in USDJPY is bullish. However, the Jan 27 move down highlights a stronger bear threat. The pair has breached the 50-day EMA and a trendline drawn from the Sep 16 ‘24 low. A resumption of weakness would open 152.55, a Fibonacci retracement point. Initial firm resistance is at 156.75, the Jan 23 high. Clearance of this hurdle would be a bullish development.        

EURJPY TECHS: Support Remains Exposed                     

• RES 4: 165.43 High Nov 8 
• RES 3: 164.90 High Dec 30 and a key short-term resistance  
• RES 2: 164.55 High Jan 7
• RES 1: 162.70/164.08 High Jan 28 / 24
• PRICE: 160.81 @ 07:05 GMT Jan 31 
• SUP 1: 159.73 Low Jan 17 and key short-term support     
• SUP 2: 159.51 61.8% retracement of the Dec 3 - 30 bull cycle   
• SUP 3: 158.67 Low Dec 11
• SUP 4: 158.24 76.4% retracement of the Dec 3 - 30 bull cycle

EURJPY has traded lower this week, extending the pullback from the Jan 24 high. The move down undermines a recent bull theme and signals scope for an extension lower. The cross is trading below the 50-day EMA, at 162.10. The key short-term support to watch lies at 159.73, the Jan 17 low. A break of this level would strengthen a bearish threat. For bulls, a reversal higher would refocus attention on 164.08, the Jan 24 high.              

AUDUSD TECHS: Trend Structure Remains Bearish      

• RES 4: 0.6441 38.2% retracement of the Sep 30 - Jan 13 downleg  
• RES 3: 0.6429 High Dec 12               
• RES 2: 0.6384 High Dec 13  
• RES 1: 0.6314/31 50-day EMA / High Jan 24
• PRICE: 0.6232 @ 07:53 GMT Jan 31 
• SUP 1: 0.6199 Low Jan 30     
• SUP 3: 0.6165/31 Low Jan 17 / 13 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: 0.6100 Round number support
• SUP 4: 0.6045 1.500 proj of the Sep 30 - Nov 6 - 7 price swing

The medium-term trend condition in AUDUSD remains bearish and the pair is trading below the 50-day EMA, at 0.6314. The reversal lower from the Jan 24 high suggests the possible end of the correction between Jan 13 - 24. A continuation lower would open 0.6131, the Jan 13 low and the bear trigger. On the upside, a clear breach of the 50-day average is required to signal scope for a stronger corrective recovery.  

USDCAD TECHS: Fresh Trend High   

• RES 4: 1.4814 High Apr 2003 
• RES 3: 1.4690 1.4690 High Jan 2016 and a major resistance
• RES 2: 1.4677 2.0% 10-dma envelope
• RES 1: 1.4595 High Jan 30  
• PRICE: 1.4452 @ 08:12 GMT Jan 31 
• SUP 1: 1.4380 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: 1.4274/61 50-day EMA / Low Jan 20 
• SUP 3: 1.4178 High Nov 26 ‘24 
• SUP 4: 1.4120 Low Dec 11

USDCAD traded in a volatile manner yesterday. The pair has moved back into its range, however, the high print yesterday does reinforce and strengthen current bullish conditions. A resumption of gains would set the scene for a climb towards major resistance at 1.4690, the Jan 2016 high. On the downside, support to watch is 1.4274, the 50-day EMA, and 1.4261, the Jan 20 low. A breach of both support points would highlight a S/T reversal. 

FIXED INCOME

BUND TECHS: (H5) Pierces Resistance At The 20-Day EMA     

• RES 4: 133.86 High Jan 2              
• RES 3: 132.99 50-day EMA 
• RES 2: 132.57 High Jan 6
• RES 1: 131.96/132.22 20-day EMA / High Jan 22                 
• PRICE: 131.69 @ 05:24 GMT Jan 31
• SUP 1: 131.00 Low Jan 16 / 24        
• SUP 2  131.00/130.28 Low Jan 16 / Low Jan 15 and the bear trigger           
• SUP 3: 130.44 Low Jul 5 ‘24 (cont)
• SUP 4: 130.23 Low Jul 3 ‘24 (cont)      

Recent weakness in Bund futures appears corrective and a short-term bull cycle is in play. The Jan 15 rally highlighted a reversal signal - a bullish engulfing candle - that continues to suggest scope for a corrective phase and is allowing an oversold trend condition to unwind. Sights are on 131.96, the 20-day EMA. It has been pierced, a clear breach of the average would strengthen the bullish theme. The bear trigger is 130.28, the Jan 15 low.                       

BOBL TECHS: (H5) Monitoring Resistance At The 20-Day EMA    

• RES 4: 117.820 High Jan 3          
• RES 3: 117.539 50-day EMA    
• RES 2: 117.490 Low Dec 30  
• RES 1: 117.059/180 20-day EMA / High Jan 22                            
• PRICE: 116.910 @ 05:45 GMT Jan 31  
• SUP 1: 116.550/280 Low Jan 24 / Low Jan 14 / 15 and bear trigger                
• SUP 2: 116.210 Low Jul 12 2024 (cont) 
• SUP 3: 115.980 Low Jul 11 ‘24 (cont)
• SUP 4: 115.745 1.50 proj of the Oct 1 - 31 - Dec 2 ‘24 price swing     

A short-term bullish corrective phase in Bobl futures remains in play - for now - despite the pullback from recent highs. The Jan 15 rally continues to highlight a reversal and the start of the correction. An extension higher would allow an oversold trend condition to unwind. Key short-term resistance is seen at 117.059, the 20-day EMA (pierced). On the downside, a break of 116.280, the Jan 14 / 15 low, would resume the downtrend.          

SCHATZ TECHS: (H5) Trend Needle Points South              

• RES 4: 107.065 High Jan 2
• RES 3: 106.965 High Jan 3  
• RES 2: 106.695 High Jan 21 / 22
• RES 1: 106.661 20-day EMA      
• PRICE: 106.605 @ 06:03 GMT Jan 31   
• SUP 1: 106.450/435 Low Jan 24 / 15 and the bear trigger             
• SUP 2: 106.375 Low Oct 31  (cont) and a key support
• SUP 3: 106.342 2.764 proj of the Dec 2 - 6 - 12 price swing
• SUP 4: 106.255 3.000 proj of the Dec 2 - 6 - 12 price swing

A medium-term bear cycle in Schatz futures remains intact and short-term gains are considered corrective. The Jan 15 recovery highlighted a reversal and the start of a corrective phase. Key near-term resistance is at 106.661, the 20-day EMA. It has been pierced, a clear break of it would signal scope for a stronger bounce. 106.435, the Jan 15 low marks the bear trigger. Clearance of this level would confirm a resumption of the downtrend.                                      

GILT TECHS: (H5) Correction Cycle Extends          

• RES 4: 93.87 Low Dec 16 ‘24 
• RES 3: 93.64 61.8% retracement of the Dec 3 - Jan 13 bear leg   
• RES 2: 93.09 High Dec 20
• RES 1: 92.83 High Jan 30               
• PRICE: 92.62 @ Close Jan 30
• SUP 1: 91.52 Low Jan 24                                
• SUP 2: 91.10 Low Jan 20
• SUP 3: 89.68/88.96 Low Jan 15 / 13 and the bear trigger
• SUP 4: 88.87 2.764 proj of the Dec 20 -27 - Jan 2 price swing

Recent gains in Gilt futures continue to highlight a corrective phase and signal scope for a continuation higher near-term. Yesterday's high print reinforces current conditions. The contract has traded through the 20-day EMA and the focus is on 93.09, the Dec 20 high. The bear trigger has been defined at 88.96, the Jan 13 low. Initial support is at 91.52, the Jan 24 low.  Medium-term trend conditions remain bearish.                    

BTP TECHS: (H5) Resistance Remains Intact For Now                          

• RES 4: 122.85 High Dec 11     
• RES 3: 120.98 61.8% retracement of the Dec 11 - Jan 13 bear leg   
• RES 2: 120.45 High Jan 2   
• RES 1: 119.70/79 50-day EMA / High Jan 22   
• PRICE: 119.41 @ Close Jan 31 
• SUP 1: 118.27/117.16 Low Jan 16 / 13 and the bear trigger          
• SUP 2: 116.59 76.4% retrace of the Jun - Dec ‘24 bull cycle (cont)
• SUP 3: 116.07 Low Jul 8 ‘24 (cont)
• SUP 4: 115.45 Low Jul 3 ‘24 (cont)     

Recent gains in BTP futures continue to highlight a corrective phase. The 20-day EMA has been breached and this exposes the next firm resistance at 119.70, the 50-day EMA. Clearance of the 50-day average would strengthen a bullish condition. The medium-term trend condition is bearish and the pullback from the Jan 22 high may be an early reversal signal. A stronger sell-off would expose the bear trigger at 117.16, the Jan 13 low.             

EQUITIES

EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: (H5) Fresh Cycle High                  

• RES 4: 5381.13 1.764 proj of the Nov 21 - Dec 9 - 20 price swing 
• RES 3: 5335.43 1.618 proj of the Nov 21 - Dec 9 - 20 price swing     
• RES 2: 5327.90 1.764 proj of the Dec 20 - Jan 8 - 13 price swing
• RES 1: 5319.00 High Jan 30          
• PRICE: 5300.00 @ 06:15 GMT Jan 31  
• SUP 1: 5138.21 20-day EMA           
• SUP 2: 5144.00 Low Jan 27
• SUP 3: 5040.30 50-day EMA
• SUP 4: 4931.00 Low Jan 13 and a key short-term support  

A bull cycle in the Eurostoxx 50 futures contract remains intact. Yesterday’s gains delivered a print above 5726.00, the Jan 24 high. The clear break of this level has confirmed a resumption of the uptrend and paved the way for 5327.90, a Fibonacci projection. The first important support to watch is 5121.39, the 20-day EMA. Clearance of the average would signal the start of a correction.          

E-MINI S&P: (H5) Bullish Outlook            

• RES 4: 6200.00 Round number resistance   
• RES 3: 6178.75 High Dec 6 and key resistance  
• RES 2: 6163.75 High Dec 16
• RES 1: 6162.28 High Jan 24             
• PRICE: 6123.25 @ 07:25 GMT Jan 31 
• SUP 1: 6019.12 50-day EMA         
• SUP 2: 5961.75/5948.00 Low Jan 16 / 27
• SUP 3: 5943.94 61.8% retracement of the Jan 13 - 24 bull leg
• SUP 4: 5892.37 76.4% retracement of the Aug 5 - Dec 6 bull leg

The S&P E-Minis contract is firmer today and continues to trade above Monday’s low. Key short-term support to watch lies at 5961.75, the Jan 16 low (pierced). For now, the recent sharp pullback appears corrective, however, a clear breach of 5961.75 would strengthen a bearish threat and signal scope for a deeper retracement, towards 5943.94, a Fibonacci retracement. Key resistance is 6178.75, the Dec 6 high.  

COMMODITIES

BRENT TECHS: (J5) Pierces Support                    

• RES 4: $85.20 - 1.382 proj of the Sep 9 - Oct 7 - 29 price swing    
• RES 3: $83.97 - High Apr 12 ‘24 and a key M/T resistance
• RES 2: $83.28 - High Jul 5 and a key resistance
• RES 1: $78.80/81.20 - High Jan 23 / 15 and the bull trigger            
• PRICE: $76.28 @ 07:10 GMT Jan 31 
• SUP 1: $75.46/36 - 50-day EMA / Low Jan 29  
• SUP 2: $71.25 - Low Dec 20
• SUP 3: $70.26 - Low Dec 6
• SUP 4: $69.65 - Low Oct 29 

Brent futures are trading closer to their recent lows. The 20-day EMA has been breached and attention is on the 50-day EMA, at $75.46 (pierced). The current pullback is allowing a recent overbought condition to unwind. A clear breach of the 50-day EMA would signal scope for a deeper retracement. A reversal higher would instead refocus attention on the bull trigger at $81.20, the Jan 15 high.              

WTI TECHS: (H5) Corrective Cycle Still In Play                

• RES 4: $83.40 - 76.4% retrace of the Jul 5 - Sep 10 bear leg (cont)    
• RES 3: $81.26 - 3.382 proj of the Nov 18 - 22 - Dec 6 price swing  
• RES 2: $80.63 - 3.236 proj of the Nov 18 - 22 - Dec 6 price swing
• RES 1: $79.48 - High Apr 12 ‘24 and a key resistance   
• PRICE: $73.28 @ 07:21 GMT Jan 31 
• SUP 1: $72.25/02 - 50-day EMA / Low Jan 30     
• SUP 2: $68.05 - Low Dec 20
• SUP 3: $66.55 - Low Dec 6 ‘24
• SUP 4: $65.80 - Low Oct 29 ‘24 

This week’s move down in WTI futures marks an extension of the current corrective cycle. The 20-day EMA has been breached and attention is on support around the 50-day EMA, at $72.25. A clear break of the 50-day average would suggest scope for a deeper retracement. On the upside, a reversal higher would refocus attention on $79.48, the Apr 12 ‘24 high and a key resistance.              

GOLD TECHS: Fresh All-Time High            

• RES 4: $2867.5 - 1.50 proj of the Nov 14 - Dec 12 - 19 price swing    
• RES 3: $2845.2 - 1.382 proj of the Nov 14 - Dec 12 - 19 price swing
• RES 2: $2817.6 - 1.236 proj of the Nov 14 - Dec 12 - 19 price swing 
• RES 1: $2800.0 - Round number resistance    
• PRICE: $2799.6 @ 07:28 GMT Jan 31
• SUP 1: $2720.7/2683.0 - 20- and 50-day EMA values   
• SUP 2: $2614.8/2583.6 - Low Jan 6 / Low Dec 19
• SUP 3: $2564.4 - Low Nov 18 
• SUP 4: $2536.9 - Low Nov 14 and a key support 

A bull cycle in Gold remains in play. This week’s extension higher has resulted in a print above $2790.1, to record a fresh all-time high. The climb confirms a resumption of the primary uptrend and maintains the bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. Attention is on $2800.0 and $2817.6, a Fibonacci projection. The first key support to watch is $2683.0, the 50-day EMA. The 20-day EMA is at $2720.7.                   

SILVER TECHS: Bullish Extension                     

• RES 4: $34.903 - High Oct 23 and the bull trigger  
• RES 3: $33.125 - High Nov 1 
• RES 2: $32.338 - High Dec 12 and a key resistance  
• RES 1: $31.737 - High Jan 30                              
• PRICE: $31.523 @ 08:16 GMT Jan 31  
• SUP 1: $29.704/28.748 - Low Jan 27 / Low Dec 19 and bear trigger        
• SUP 2: $28.446 - 76.4% retracement of the Aug 8 - Oct 23 bull cycle 
• SUP 3: $27.686 - Low Sep 6 
• SUP 4: $26.451 - Low Aug 8  

Silver traded higher Thursday. A bear cycle that started on Oct 23 last year remains in play and recent gains are considered corrective. However, the latest move higher does suggest scope for a continuation near-term. An extension would expose key resistance at $32.338, the Dec 12 high. Clearance of this level would highlight a reversal. Support to watch is $29.704, the Jan 27 low, and $29.748, the Dec 19 low and the bear trigger.