MNI DAILY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - GBP Bull Cycle Remains in Play

Price Signal Summary – Bull Cycle in GBP Remains in Play

• S&P E-Minis traded higher this week and the contract maintains a firmer tone. The latest recovery undermines a recent bearish threat and attention turns to resistance at 6162.25, the Jan 24 high. The trend needle in Eurostoxx 50 futures continues to point north. The move higher last week confirms once again, a resumption of the uptrend that started on Nov 21 ‘24.
• A bull cycle in GBPUSD remains in play and last week’s climb strengthens the short-term bullish condition. Recent gains have resulted in a move above both the 20- and 50-day EMAs, and a breach of resistance at 1.2550, the Feb 5 high. USDJPY has pulled back from last week’s high. The latest move down highlights that - for now - resistance around the 50-day EMA, remains intact. The average is at 154.36. A clear break of the 50-day average is required to highlight a stronger bullish reversal. AUDUSD is trading higher today as it starts the week on a bullish note. Recent gains have reinforced bullish conditions. The pair has cleared 0.6331, the Jan 24 high and a key short-term resistance. The breach highlights a stronger reversal and opens 0.6414
• A bull cycle in Gold remains in play and the yellow metal continues to trade closer to its latest highs. Recent gains once again confirm a resumption of the uptrend and maintain the bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. WTI futures has pulled back from last week’s high and price has again traded below the 50-day EMA - at $72.08. Attention is on $70.43, the Feb 6 low. It has been pierced, a clear break would undermine a bullish theme and confirm a breach of the 50-day EMA.
• The recent pullback in Bund futures resulted in a move through the 20-day EMA - currently at 132.63. This continues to signal scope for a deeper retracement and attention is on 132.05, a trendline drawn from the Jan 15 low. A bull cycle in Gilt futures remains in play and the latest pullback appears corrective for now. Last Thursday’s gains are a positive development and appears to be a bullish engulfing candle.

FOREIGN EXCHANGE    

EURUSD TECHS: Key Resistance Remains Exposed  

• RES 4: 1.0630 High Dec 6   
• RES 3: 1.0594 Dec 9 ‘24
• RES 2: 1.0533 High Jan 27 and a reversal trigger
• RES 1: 1.0514 High Feb 14
• PRICE: 1.0487 @ 05:44 GMT Feb 17
• SUP 1: 1.0393 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: 1.0280/0141 Low Feb 10 / 3 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: 1.0138 1.764 proj of the Sep 25 - Oct 23 - Nov 5 price swing
• SUP 4: 1.0031 2.00 proj of the Sep 25 - Oct 23 - Nov 5 price swing

EURUSD is holding on to its recent gains. A short-term bull theme remains intact and last week’s gains have reinforced current conditions. The move higher also strengthens a short-term reversal signal on Feb 3 - a hammer - and suggests scope for an extension near-term. The pair has breached the 50-day EMA, at 1.0430. This has exposed 1.0533, the Jan 27 high. Initial firm support lies at 1.0280, the Feb 10 low.   

GBPUSD TECHS: Bull Cycle Remains In Play        

• RES 4: 1.2811 High Dec 6 
• RES 3: 1.2767 50.0% retracement of the Sep 26 ‘24 - Jan 13 bear leg 
• RES 2: 1.2667 High Dec 19
• RES 1: 1.2630 High Feb 14
• PRICE: 1.2588 @ 06:00 GMT Feb 17
• SUP 1: 1.2449 20-day EMA     
• SUP 2: 1.2333/2249 Low Feb 11 / 3 and a key short-term support
• SUP 3: 1.2161 Low Jan 17 / 20
• SUP 4: 1.2100 Low Jan 10 and the bear trigger   

A bull cycle in GBPUSD remains in play and last week’s climb strengthens the short-term bullish condition. Recent gains have resulted in a move above both the 20- and 50-day EMAs, and a breach of resistance at 1.2550, the Feb 5 high. Furthermore, 1.2610, 38.2% of the Sep 26 ‘24 - Jan 13 bear leg, has been pierced. A continuation higher would open 1.2767, the 50.0% retracement. Initial firm support to watch lies at 1.2333, the Feb 11 low.               

EURGBP TECHS: Pivot Resistance Remains Intact                  

• RES 4: 0.8474 High Jan 20 and a key resistance    
• RES 3: 0.8420 76.4% retracement of the Jan 20 - Feb 3 bear leg  
• RES 2: 0.8388 61.8% retracement of the Jan 20 - Feb 3 bear leg  
• RES 1: 0.8378 High Jan 6   
• PRICE: 0.8333 @ 06:11 GMT Feb 17 
• SUP 1: 0.8297/8248 Low Feb 4 / 3 and a bear trigger
• SUP 2: 0.8223 Low Dec 19 and a key support  
• SUP 3: 0.8203 Low Mar 7 ‘22 and a lowest point of a multi-year range   
• SUP 4: 0.8163 123.6% retracement of the Dec 19 - Jan 20 bull leg 

EURGBP continues to trade in a range. The early February bounce still appears to have undermined a recent bearish threat. Attention is on 0.8378, the Jan 6 high and a key short-term pivot resistance. Clearance of it would strengthen a bullish condition and signal scope for a stronger recovery. For bears, a resumption of weakness would once again refocus attention on 0.8248, the Feb 3 low and bear trigger.    

USDJPY TECHS: Bear Threat Remains Present

• RES 4: 158.87 High Jan 10 and a bull trigger   
• RES 3: 156.75 High Jan 23 
• RES 2: 155.89 High Feb 3 
• RES 1: 154.36/80 50-day EMA and a pivot resistance / High Feb 12       
• PRICE: 151.64 @ 06:23 GMT Feb 17
• SUP 1: 150.93 Low Feb 07 and a bear trigger 
• SUP 2: 149.69 Low Dec 9 
• SUP 3: 148.65 Low Dec 3 ‘24 and a key support 
• SUP 4: 148.01 Low Oct 9 ‘24     

USDJPY has pulled back from last week’s high. The latest move down highlights that - for now - resistance around the 50-day EMA, remains intact. The average is at 154.36. A clear break of the 50-day average is required to highlight a stronger bullish reversal. This would open 155.89, the Feb 3 high. Key support and the bear trigger is unchanged at 150.93, the Feb 7 low. Clearance of this level would resume the bear cycle that started on Jan 10.         

EURJPY TECHS: Resistance Remains Intact  

• RES 4: 164.08 High Jan 24  
• RES 3: 162.71 76.4% retracement of the Dec 30 - Feb 10 bear leg     
• RES 2: 162.49 High Jan 29
• RES 1: 160.97/161.19 50-day EMA / High Feb 13
• PRICE: 159.22 @ 06:39 GMT Feb 17
• SUP 1: 157.90/155.61 Low Feb 12 / 10 and the bear trigger 
• SUP 2: 155.15 Low Sep 16 ‘24
• SUP 3: 154.42 Low Aug 5 ‘24 and key medium-term support
• SUP 4: 153.87 Low Dec 14 ‘23  

Recent gains in EURJPY have allowed an oversold trend condition to unwind. For now, resistance at 160.97, the 50-day EMA, remains intact. It has been pierced, but a clear break is required to strengthen bullish conditions and signal scope for an extension towards 162.71, a Fibonacci retracement. For bears, the cross has pulled back from its recent highs. A stronger reversal would refocus attention on 155.61, the Feb 10 low and bear trigger.   

AUDUSD TECHS: Bull Cycle Extends          

• RES 4: 0.6471 High Dec 9 ‘24 
• RES 3: 0.6429 High Dec 12 ‘24               
• RES 2: 0.6414 38.2% retracement of the Sep 30 ‘24 - Feb 3 bear leg 
• RES 1: 0.6384 High Dec 13 
• PRICE: 0.6371 @ 06:46 GMT Feb 17 
• SUP 1: 0.6303/6231 50-day EMA / Low Feb 10 
• SUP 3: 0.6171/6088 Low Feb 4 / 3
• SUP 3: 0.6045 1.500 proj of the Sep 30 - Nov 6 - 7 price swing
• SUP 4: 0.6000 Round number support

AUDUSD is trading higher today as it starts the week on a bullish note. Recent gains have reinforced bullish conditions. The pair has cleared 0.6331, the Jan 24 high and a key short-term resistance. The breach highlights a stronger reversal and opens 0.6414, a Fibonacci retracement. Note that MA studies remain in a bear-mode position. This suggests the latest recovery is a correction. Initial firm support to watch is 0.6231, the Feb 10 low.       

USDCAD TECHS: Has Cleared Support

• RES 4: 1.4948 High Mar 2003
• RES 3: 1.4814 High Apr 2003 
• RES 2: 1.4503/1.4793 High Fb 4 / 3 and key resistance
• RES 1: 1.4380 High Feb 10     
• PRICE: 1.4175 @ 06:51 GMT Feb 17
• SUP 1: 1.4107 50.0% retracement of the Sep 25 ‘24 - Feb 3 bull cycle
• SUP 2: 1.4011 Low Dec 5 ‘24
• SUP 3: 1.3944 61.8% retracement of the Sep 25 ‘24 - Feb 3 bull cycle
• SUP 4: 1.3894 Low Nov 11 ‘24

USDCAD traded lower last week, breaking out of a tight trading range, and has cleared key support at 1.4261, the Jan 20 low. This signals scope for an extension of the current bear cycle - a correction. Scope is seen for a move towards 1.4107, a Fibonacci retracement. Initial firm resistance to watch is 1.4380, the Feb 10 high. A move above this hurdle would highlight an early bullish reversal signal. 

FIXED INCOME

BUND TECHS: (H5) Approaching Trendline Support        

• RES 4: 134.94 High Dec 17            
• RES 3: 134.54 61.8% retracement of the Dec 2 - Jan 14 bear leg
• RES 2: 134.29 High Dec 20
• RES 1: 132.99/133.71 50-day EMA / High Feb 5                 
• PRICE: 132.36 @ 05:25 GMT Feb 17 
• SUP 1: 132.05/62 Trendine drawn from the Jan 15 low / Low Jan 31      
• SUP 2: 131.59 61.8% retracement of the Jan 14 - Feb 5 bull leg              
• SUP 3: 131.00 Low Jan 24 and a key short-term support
• SUP 4: 130.28 Low Jan 15 and the bear trigger    

The recent pullback in Bund futures resulted in a move through the 20-day EMA - currently at 132.63. This continues to signal scope for a deeper retracement and attention is on 132.05, a trendline drawn from the Jan 15 low. Clearance of the line would expose a key support at 131.00, the Jan 16 / 24 low. For bulls, a stronger resumption of gains would refocus attention on the bull trigger at 133.71, Feb 5 high.                         

BOBL TECHS: (H5) Monitoring Trendline Support       

• RES 4: 118.310 High Dec 20          
• RES 3: 118.27 61.8% retracement of the Dec 2 - Jan 14 bear leg    
• RES 2: 118.100 High Jan 2   
• RES 1: 117.573/980 50-day EMA / High Feb 3 / 5 and the bull trigger                             
• PRICE: 117.280@ 05:37 GMT Feb 17  
• SUP 1: 117.190 Low Feb 12                  
• SUP 2: 117.016 Trendline drawn from Jan 15 low
• SUP 3: 116.550 Low Jan 24  
• SUP 4: 116.280 Low Jan 14 / 15 and  key support       

Bobl futures remain in a short-term bull cycle and the latest pullback still appears corrective - for now. However, price has traded through support at the 20-day EMA - at 117.430. A continuation lower would expose a trendline support drawn from the Jan 15 low, at 117.016. Clearance of the trendline would strengthen a bearish threat. The bull trigger has been defined at 117.980, the Feb 3 / 5 high. A break of it resumes the recent uptrend.            

SCHATZ TECHS: (H5) Corrective Cycle INtact For Now               

• RES 4: 107.170 High Dec 20
• RES 3: 107.081 61.8% retracement of the Dec 2 - Jan 15 bear leg   
• RES 2: 107.045 High Jan 3
• RES 1: 106.854/975 50-day EMA / High Feb 10          
• PRICE: 106.730 @ 05:50 GMT Feb 17   
• SUP 1: 106.705 Low Feb 12               
• SUP 2: 106.600 Low Jan 31
• SUP 3: 106.515 Low Jan 30 
• SUP 4: 106.435 Low Jan 15 and key support  

A bull cycle that began Jan 15 in Schatz futures remains in play, and the pullback from the early February highs appears corrective - for now. However, the contract continues to trade at its recent lows and this highlights potential for a deeper retracement. A continuation lower would open 106.600 next, the Jan 31 low.  For bulls, a  resumption of gains would refocus attention on key resistance and the bull trigger at 107.045, the Feb 3 high.                                        

GILT TECHS: (H5) Bullish Engulfing Candle              

• RES 4: 95.57 High Dec 11 ‘24 
• RES 3: 95.11 High Dec 12 ‘24   
• RES 2: 94.75 76.4% retracement of the Dec 3 - Jan 13 bear leg
• RES 1: 93.71/94.35 High Feb 10 / 6 and the bull trigger                  
• PRICE: 93.30 @ Close Feb 14
• SUP 1: 92.31 Low Feb 12                                 
• SUP 2: 91.96/91.52 Low Jan 29 / 24
• SUP 3: 91.10 Low Jan 20
• SUP 4: 89.68/88.96 Low Jan 15 / 13 and the bear trigger

A bull cycle in Gilt futures remains in play and the latest pullback appears corrective for now. Last Thursday’s gains are a positive development and appears to be a bullish engulfing candle. A continuation higher would open 94.35, the Feb 6 high and a bull trigger. Clearance of this level would open 94.75, the 76.4% retracement of the Dec 3 - Jan 13 bear leg. The next firm support to watch lies at 91.52, the Jan 24 low.                      

BTP TECHS: (H5) Trend Structure Remains Bullish For Now                         

• RES 4: 123.34 High Dec 11       
• RES 3: 122.85 High Dec 12  
• RES 2: 121.88 76.4% retracement of the Dec 11 - Jan 13 bear leg  
• RES 1: 120.98/121.00 61.8% of Dec 11 - Jan 13 bear leg / High Feb 7    
• PRICE: 120.17 @ Close Feb 14 
• SUP 1: 119.65 Low Feb 12           
• SUP 2: 118.65/117.16 Low Jan 24 / 13 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: 116.59 76.4% retrace of the Jun - Dec ‘24 bull cycle (cont)
• SUP 4: 116.07 Low Jul 8 ‘24 (cont)    

A bullish cycle in BTP futures remains intact and the latest pullback appears corrective - for now. Price has recently traded above both the 20- and 50- day EMAs. This signals scope for an extension of the upleg and sights are on 120.98 (pierced) and 121.88, Fibonacci retracement points. On the downside, initial key support to watch lies at 118.65, the Jan 24 low. Clearance of this price point would highlight a reversal and the end of the corrective bull cycle.            

EQUITIES

EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: (H5) Fresh All-Time Contract High                    

• RES 4: 5574.57 2.382 proj of the Nov 21 - Dec 9 - 20 ‘24 price swing
• RES 3: 5552.90 2.764 proj of the Dec 20 ‘24 - Jan 8 - 13 price swing    
• RES 2: 5528.87 2.236 proj of the Nov 21 - Dec 9 - 20 ‘24 price swing
• RES 1: 5525.00/5533.00 March ‘00 all-time high (cont) / High Feb 14            
• PRICE: 5496.00 @ 06:01 GMT Feb 17   
• SUP 1: 5371.00/5304.02 Low Feb 12 / 20-day EMA            
• SUP 2: 5158.00 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: 4991.00 Low Jan 15  
• SUP 4: 4931.00 Low Jan 13 and a key short-term support  

The trend needle in Eurostoxx 50 futures continues to point north. The move higher last week confirms once again, a resumption of the uptrend that started on Nov 21 ‘24. Moving average studies are in a bull mode set-up too, highlighting a dominant uptrend. A major resistance at 5525.00, the March 2000 all-time high (cont), has been pierced. A clear break of it would highlight a key bullish technical breach. Support to watch is 5304.02, the 20-day EMA.           

E-MINI S&P: (H5) Sights Are On Key Resistance             

• RES 4: 6205.38 0.764 proj of the Jan 13 - 24 - Feb 3 price swing     
• RES 3: 6200.00 Round number resistance 
• RES 2: 6178.75 High Dec 6 and key resistance
• RES 1: 6162.25 High Jan 24                 
• PRICE: 6143.00 @ 07:16 GMT Feb 17 
• SUP 1: 6075.54 20-day EMA           
• SUP 2: 6014.00/5935.50 Low Feb 10 / 3
• SUP 3: 5892.37 76.4% retracement of the Aug 5 - Dec 6 bull leg
• SUP 4: 5842.50 Low Jan 14

S&P E-Minis traded higher this week and the contract maintains a firmer tone. The latest recovery undermines a recent bearish threat and attention turns to resistance at 6162.25, the Jan 24 high. Clearance of this level would expose key resistance at 6178.75, the Dec 6 ‘24 high. A move above this hurdle would resume the primary uptrend. Initial key support has been defined at 6014.00, the Feb 10 low. A break would be a bearish development.  

COMMODITIES

BRENT TECHS: (J5) Support Remains Exposed                         

• RES 4: $85.20 - 1.382 proj of the Sep 9 - Oct 7 - 29 price swing    
• RES 3: $83.97 - High Apr 12 ‘24 and a key M/T resistance
• RES 2: $83.28 - High Jul 5 and a key resistance
• RES 1: $77.34/81.20 - High Feb 3 / 15 and the bull trigger            
• PRICE: $74.96 @ 06:58 GMT Feb 17  
• SUP 1: $74.10/06 - Low Feb 6 / 13 
• SUP 2: $71.25 - Low Dec 20
• SUP 3: $70.26 - Low Dec 6
• SUP 4: $69.65 - Low Oct 29 and a key support 

Brent futures have pulled back from their recent highs and attention is on support at $74.10, the Feb 6 low. A clear break of this level would undermine a bullish theme and instead highlight a stronger reversal, signalling scope for a deeper pullback, towards $71.25, the Dec 20 low. Initial firm resistance has been defined at $77.34, the Feb 3 high. Clearance of this level would once again highlight a bullish development.                

WTI TECHS: (H5) Has Pierced Support                  

• RES 4: $83.40 - 76.4% retrace of the Jul 5 - Sep 10 bear leg (cont)    
• RES 3: $81.26 - 3.382 proj of the Nov 18 - 22 - Dec 6 price swing  
• RES 2: $80.63 - 3.236 proj of the Nov 18 - 22 - Dec 6 price swing
• RES 1: $75.18/79.48 - High Feb 3 / High Apr 12 ‘24   
• PRICE: $70.70 @ 07:11 GMT Feb 17
• SUP 1: $70.43/12 - Low Feb 6 and the bear trigger / Intraday low  
• SUP 2: $68.05 - Low Dec 20 ‘24
• SUP 3: $66.55 - Low Dec 6 ‘24
• SUP 4: $65.80 - Low Oct 29 ‘24 and a key support  

WTI futures has pulled back from last week’s high and price has again traded below the 50-day EMA - at $72.08. Attention is on $70.43, the Feb 6 low. It has been pierced, a clear break would undermine a bullish theme and confirm a breach of the 50-day EMA. This would strengthen a bearish threat and open $68.05, the Dec 20 ‘24 low. Key S/T resistance has been defined at $75.18. A move above this level is required to reinstate a bull theme.          

GOLD TECHS: Bulls Remain In The Driver’s Seat               

• RES 4: $3000.0 - Psychological round number   
• RES 3: $2991.4 - 4.0% 10-dma envelope
• RES 2: $2962.2 - 2.00 proj of the Nov 14 - Dec 12 - 19 price swing
• RES 1: $2942.7 - High Feb 11
• PRICE: $2900.6 @ 07:15 GMT Feb 17
• SUP 1: $2864.2 - Low Feb 12  
• SUP 2: $2826.5 - 20-day EMA  
• SUP 3: $2750.8 - 50-day EMA   
• SUP 4: $2730.6 - Low Jan 27

A bull cycle in Gold remains in play and the yellow metal continues to trade closer to its latest highs. Recent gains once again confirm a resumption of the uptrend and maintain the bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. Moving average studies are in a bull mode position too, highlighting a dominant uptrend. Sights are on the $2962.2, a Fibonacci projection. The first key support to watch is $2826.5, the 20-day EMA.                   

SILVER TECHS: Northbound  

• RES 4: $35.736 - 1.236 proj of the Feb 14 - Apr 12 - May 2 ‘24 swing 
• RES 3: $34.903 - High Oct 23 and the bull trigger
• RES 2: $34.000 - Round number resistance  
• RES 1: $33.450 - 76.4% of the Oct 23 - Dec 19 ‘24 bear leg                                
• PRICE: $33.188 @ 08:26 GMT Feb 14   
• SUP 1: $31.469/005 - 20- and 50-day EMA values         
• SUP 2: $29.704 - Low Jan 27 
• SUP 3: $28.748 - Low Dec 19 and bear trigger
• SUP 4: $28.446 - 76.4% retracement of the Aug 8 - Oct 23 bull cycle 

A bull theme in Silver remains intact and today’s strong rally reinforces current conditions. The break higher confirms a resumption of the bull cycle that started Dec 19 and sights are on $33.450, a Fibonacci retracement. Clearance of this level would further strengthen a bull theme. On the downside, key short-term support is seen at 31.006, the 50-day EMA. A clear breach of this level would highlight a potential reversal.