MNI DAILY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - GBP Buoyed on Tariff Reprieve

Price Signal Summary – GBP Buoyed on Tariff Reprieve

• A short-term reversal in S&P E-Minis last week highlights the start of what appears to be a corrective cycle. The trend condition has been oversold following recent weakness and the move higher is allowing this set-up to unwind. Eurostoxx 50 futures traded in an extremely volatile manner last week and rallied sharply higher from recent lows. The climb highlights the start of a corrective cycle.       
• GBPUSD maintains a bullish tone and the pair is holding on to last week’s gains. The trend condition remains bullish and recent weakness appears to have been a correction. The trend condition in USDJPY remains bearish and Friday’s fresh cycle low reinforces this theme. The move down confirms a resumption of the downtrend and maintains the price sequence of lower lows and lower highs. USDCAD is trading lower today, as it starts the week on a bearish note. Last week’s move down marked a resumption of the downtrend and has signalled scope for a continuation near-term. 
• The trend condition in Gold remains bullish and last week’s rally confirms and reinforces this condition. The yellow metal has traded through $3167.8, the Apr 3 high, to resume the primary uptrend and trade to fresh all-time highs. A bearish theme in WTI futures remains intact and last Wednesday's rally is - for now - considered corrective. The move higher is allowing an oversold trend condition to unwind. Recent weakness has resulted in the breach of several important support levels.  
• Bund futures traded in a volatile manner last week and for now, remain below their recent highs. A bull cycle is in play and the latest pullback is considered corrective. A fresh short-term cycle high on Apr 7 reinforces a bullish theme. A sharp sell-off in Gilt futures last week highlights a strong bearish theme. The contract has breached 90.55, the Mar 27 low. Clearance of this level confirms a full reversal of the Mar 27 - Apr 7 rally.

FOREIGN EXCHANGE    

EURUSD TECHS: Trend Needle Points North          

• RES 4: 1.1608 High Nov 9 2021
• RES 3: 1.1555 1.382 proj of the Feb 28 - Mar 18 - 27 price swing
• RES 2: 1.1495 High Feb 10 2022 
• RES 1: 1.1473 High Apr 11 
• PRICE: 1.1368 @ 06:04 BST Apr 14
• SUP 1: 1.1144 High Apr 3 and a recent breakout level     
• SUP 2: 1.08932 20-day EMA     
• SUP 3: 1.0765 50-day EMA and a short-term pivot level     
• SUP 4: 1.0733 Low Mar 27 and a key short-term support

A bull cycle in EURUSD remains intact and last week’s gains reinforce this condition. The breach of 1.1144, the Apr 3 high and bull trigger, confirmed a resumption of the uptrend and maintains the price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. Sights are on 1.1555 next, a Fibonacci projection. Initial support lies at the 1.1144 breakout level. Key support is at 1.0932, the 20-day EMA.     

GBPUSD TECHS: Key Resistance Remains Exposed           

• RES 4: 1.3305 High Oct 2 ‘24  
• RES 3: 1.3274 High Oct 3 ‘24  
• RES 2: 1.3207 High Apr 3 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: 1.3145 High Apr 11       
• PRICE: 1.3104 @ 06:19 BST Apr 14
• SUP 1: 1.2907/1.2709 20-day EMA / Low Apr 7 and a bear trigger  
• SUP 2: 1.2662 2.0% 10-dma envelope
• SUP 3: 1.2654 50.0% retracement of the Jan 13 - Apr 3 bull cycle
• SUP 4: 1.2559 Low Feb 28 

GBPUSD maintains a bullish tone and the pair is holding on to last week’s gains. The trend condition remains bullish and recent weakness appears to have been a correction. Moving average studies remain in a bull mode position that highlights a dominant uptrend. An extension higher would open key resistance and the bull trigger is 1.3207, the Apr 3 high. Key support has been defined at 1.2709, the Apr 7 low.   

EURGBP TECHS: Impulsive Bull Cycle Still In Play   

• RES 4: 0.8800 Round number resistance      
• RES 3: 0.8781 2.236 proj of the Mar 3 - 11 - 28 price swing
• RES 2: 0.8768 High Nov 20 ‘23
• RES 1: 0.8738 High Apr 11 
• PRICE: 0.8674 @ 06:36 BST Apr 14 
• SUP 1: 0.8520/0.8470 Low Apr 10 / 20-day EMA 
• SUP 2: 0.8405 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: 0.8316 Low Mar 28 and a key near-term support   
• SUP 4: 0.8299 Low Mar 5

A bull trend in EURGBP remains intact and the cross is trading closer to its recent highs. The uptrend has entered an extreme overbought region following the latest impulsive rally. A corrective pullback would allow this condition to unwind. For bulls, sights are on 0.8781 next, a Fibonacci projection point. On the downside, initial firm support lies at 0.8470, the 20-day EMA.        

USDJPY TECHS: Bears Remain In The Driver’s Seat  

• RES 4: 151.30 High Mar 3   
• RES 3: 149.60/151.21 50-day EMA / High Mar 28 and reversal trigger 
• RES 2: 147.80 20-day EMA
• RES 1: 144.64/146.54 High Apr 11 / Low Mar 11 recent breakout point   
• PRICE: 142.70 @ 06:57 BST Apr 14
• SUP 1: 142.07 Low Apr 11    
• SUP 2: 141.65 Low Sep 30 ‘24
• SUP 3: 141.00 1.236 proj of the Feb 12 - Mar 11 - 28 price swing
• SUP 4: 140.32 Low Sep 17 ‘24

The trend condition in USDJPY remains bearish and Friday’s fresh cycle low reinforces this theme. The move down confirms a resumption of the downtrend and maintains the price sequence of lower lows and lower highs. Note too that moving average studies are in a bear-mode position highlighting a dominant downtrend. Sights are on 141.65 next, the Sep 30 ‘24 low. Initial firm resistance to watch is 147.80, the 20-day EMA.        

EURJPY TECHS: Trend Outlook Remains Bullish 

• RES 4: 165.43 High Nov 8        
• RES 3: 164.90 High Dec 30 ‘24 and a key medium-term resistance   
• RES 2: 164.55 High Jan 7
• RES 1: 163.55/164.19 Intraday high / High Mar 18 and the bull trigger 
• PRICE: 162.68 @ 07:09 GMT Apr 14 
• SUP 1: 160.98/158.30 50-day EMA / Low Apr 7   
• SUP 2: 157.02 76.4% retracement of the Feb 28 - Mar 18 bull cycle  
• SUP 3: 155.60 Low Low Mar 4  
• SUP 4: 154.80 Low Low Feb 28  

Recent weakness in EURJPY appears corrective and the strong rally from the Apr 7 low reinforces a bullish theme. Key short-term support has been defined at 158.30, the low on Apr 7. A break of this level is required to signal scope for a deeper retracement. This would open 157.02, a Fibonacci retracement. For bulls, a continuation higher would expose 164.19, the Mar 18 high and the bull trigger.      

AUDUSD TECHS: Approaching Key Resistance                    

• RES 4: 0.6409 High Dec 9 and a key resistance 
• RES 3: 0.6389 High Apr 3 and a reversal trigger               
• RES 2: 0.6332 High Apr 4   
• RES 1: 0.6320 High Apr 11  
• PRICE: 0.6315 @ 07:34 BST Apr 14 
• SUP 1: 0.6222 20-day EMA  
• SUP 2: 0.6116/0.5915 Low 10 / Low Apr 9 and the bear trigger 
• SUP 3: 0.5830 2.000 proj of the Sep 30 - Nov 6 - 7 price swing
• SUP 4: 0.5729 2.236 proj of the Sep 30 - Nov 6 - 7 price swing

AUDUSD maintains a firmer short-term tone following a strong reversal last week. The pair has breached the 50-day EMA, at 0.6265. The break of this average strengthens the reversal and signals scope for a continuation higher, towards 0.6389, the Apr 3 high and the next important resistance. For bears, a resumption of weakness would refocus attention on 0.5915, the Apr 9 low and bear trigger. First support lies at 0.6222, the 20-day EMA.         

USDCAD TECHS: Bearish Start To The Week      

• RES 4: 1.4452/4543 High Mar 13 / 4 and a bull trigger
• RES 3: 1.4415 High Apr 1 
• RES 2: 1.4264 50-day EMA 
• RES 1: 1.4028/4151 Low Apr 3 / Low Feb 14 
• PRICE: 1.3837 @ 07:58 BST Apr 14
• SUP 1: 1.3822 Low Nov 6 ‘24
• SUP 2: 1.3744 76.4% retracement of Sep 25 ‘24 - Feb 3 bull run
• SUP 3: 1.3696 Low Oct 10 2024
• SUP 4: 1.3643 Low Oct 9 ‘24 

USDCAD is trading lower today, as it starts the week on a bearish note. Last week’s move down marked a resumption of the downtrend and has signalled scope for a continuation near-term. Potential is seen for a move towards 1.3744, a Fibonacci retracement. Moving average studies are in a bear -mode position, highlighting a dominant downtrend. First resistance to watch is 1.4028, the Apr 3 low.  

FIXED INCOME

BUND TECHS: (M5) Trend Structure Still Bullish                    

• RES 4: 133.00 round number resistance               
• RES 3: 132.56 High Feb 28 and a key resistance       
• RES 2: 132.03 High Apr 7 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: 131.42 High Apr 11                    
• PRICE: 130.63 @ 05:44 BST Apr 14
• SUP 1: 129.59/128.60 20-day EMA / Low Apr 9         
• SUP 2: 128.47 Low Mar 28            
• SUP 3: 127.74 Low Mar 25 and a key short-term support 
• SUP 4: 127.20 Low Mar 17   

Bund futures traded in a volatile manner last week and for now, remain below their recent highs. A bull cycle is in play and the latest pullback is considered corrective. A fresh short-term cycle high on Apr 7 reinforces a bullish theme. The contract has recently cleared 131.14, 76.4% of the Feb 28 - Mar 11 bear leg. This opens 132.56 next, the Feb 28 high. Initial firm support lies at 128.60, the Apr 9 low.                                       

BOBL TECHS: (M5) Support Stays Intact          

• RES 4: 120.20 High Dec 12 ‘24 (cont)           
• RES 3: 120.000 Psychological round number          
• RES 2: 119.960 High Apr 7 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: 119.470 High Apr 11                                    
• PRICE: 107.410 @ 06:12 BST Apr 14  
• SUP 1: 118.253/117.680 20-day EMA / Low Apr 9 / 1       
• SUP 2: 117.410 Low Mar 27   
• SUP 3: 117.126 76.4% retracement of the Mar 6 - Apr 7 bull cycle  
• SUP 4: 117.080 Low Mar 25 and a key short-term support    

Bobl futures remain below their recent highs. The latest move down - for now, appears corrective. The early April rally resulted in a break of key resistance at 119.040, the Feb 28 high. This strengthens bullish conditions and signals scope for a continuation. The focus is on the 120.000 handle next. The contract is overbought, a move down is allowing this condition to unwind. Initial firm support lies at 117.680, the Apr 9 low.                 

SCHATZ TECHS: (M5) Bullish Structure                               

• RES 4: 107.812 0.618 proj of the Mar 6 - Apr 7 - 9 price swing     
• RES 3: 107.800 Round number resistance    
• RES 2: 107.775 High Apr 7 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: 107.680 High Apr 9                   
• PRICE: 107.410 @ 06:12 BST Apr 14     
• SUP 1: 107.130/106.965 20-day EMA / Low Apr 9   
• SUP 2: 106.830 Low Mar 27    
• SUP 3: 106.728 76.4% retracement of the Mar 6 - Apr 7 bull cycle       
• SUP 4: 106.630 Low Mar 18     

Schatz futures remain below last week’s high. For now, the recent pullback appears corrective and has allowed an overbought condition to unwind. The trend condition remains bullish - price has recently traded through a key resistance at 107.120, the Mar 4 high. The break highlights a stronger bull cycle and signals scope for a climb towards 107.800. Initial firm support to watch lies at 106.965, the Apr 9 low.                                                      

GILT TECHS: (M5) Bearish Threat Remains Present                  

• RES 4: 94.50 High Apr 7 and key resistance   
• RES 3: 93.00 Round number resistance       
• RES 2: 92.63 High Apr 8  
• RES 1: 91.84 20-day EMA                        
• PRICE: 90.64 @ Close Apr 11
• SUP 1: 90.47/89.99 Low Apr 11 / 9                                       
• SUP 2: 89.68 Low Jan 15 (cont)   
• SUP 3: 88.96 Low Jan 13 and a key support      
• SUP 4: 88.00 Round number support  

A sharp sell-off in Gilt futures last week highlights a strong bearish theme. The contract has breached 90.55, the Mar 27 low. Clearance of this level confirms a full reversal of the Mar 27 - Apr 7 rally. Sights are on the 90.00 handle next, briefly pierced on Apr 9. A clear break of this level would signal scope for an extension towards a key support at 88.96, the Jan 13 low on the continuation chart. Initial resistance is at 91.84, the 20-day EMA.                                

BTP TECHS: (M5) Monitoring Resistance                                 

• RES 4: 120.12 High High Mar 4     
• RES 3: 119.31 Low Mar 4 and a gap high on the daily chart   
• RES 2: 119.07 High Apr 4 and the bull trigger  
• RES 1: 118.63 Intraday high           
• PRICE: 118.49 @ 07:58 BST Apr 14  
• SUP 1: 117.28/116.06 Low Apr 10 / 9 and the bear trigger       
• SUP 2: 115.75 Low Mar 14 and the bear trigger     
• SUP 3: 115.53 0.764 proj of the Feb 28 - Mar 14 - Apr 4 price swing  
• SUP 4:  115.00 Round number support    

BTP futures rallied sharply higher from last Wednesday’s low. However, the latest move down highlights a potential reversal of the Mar 14 - Apr 4 bull cycle. If correct, the move down exposes key support at 115.75, the Mar 14 low and a bear trigger. A break of this level would confirm a resumption of the medium-term downtrend. Initial firm resistance to monitor is 119.07, the Apr 8 high. Clearance of this level would be a bullish reversal development.                

EQUITIES

EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: (M5) Short-Term Corrective Cycle       

• RES 4: 5270.00 High Apr 1  
• RES 3: 5153.42 50-day EMA 
• RES 2: 5026.21 20-day EMA
• RES 1: 5001.00 High Apr 9              
• PRICE: 4836.00 @ 06:37 BST Apr 14 
• SUP 1: 4664.00 Low Apr 10                      
• SUP 2: 4575.45 76.4% retracement of the Apr 7 - 9 bounce
• SUP 3: 4444.00 Low Apr 7 and the bear trigger         
• SUP 4: 4336.00 Low Nov 28 ‘23 (cont)     

Eurostoxx 50 futures traded in an extremely volatile manner last week and rallied sharply higher from recent lows. The climb highlights the start of a corrective cycle and if this is correct, marks an unwinding of the recent oversold trend condition. Resistance levels to watch are 5026.21, the 20-day EMA, and 5153.42, the 50-day EMA. Key support and the bear trigger has been defined at 4444.00, the Apr 7 low.             

E-MINI S&P: (M5) Gains Highlight A Corrective Cycle                 

• RES 4: 5906.75 High Mar 6   
• RES 3: 5837.25 High Mar 25 and the reversal trigger        
• RES 2: 5724.13 50-day EMA
• RES 1: 5512.18 20-day EMA                             
• PRICE: 5450.00 @ 07:18 BST Apr 14   
• SUP 1: 5098.16 61.8% retracement of the Apr 7 - 10 bounce                      
• SUP 2: 4832.00 Low Apr 7 and the bear trigger 
• SUP 3: 4760.88 1.618 proj of the Feb 19 - Mar 13 - 25 price swing
• SUP 4: 4663.75 1.764 proj of the Feb 19 - Mar 13 - 25 price swing  

A short-term reversal in S&P E-Minis last week highlights the start of what appears to be a corrective cycle. The trend condition has been oversold following recent weakness and the move higher is allowing this set-up to unwind. Initial resistance to watch is 5524.91, the 20-day EMA. Resistance at the 50-day EMA is at 5737.71. On the downside, key support and the bear trigger has been defined at 4832.00, the Apr 7 low.  

COMMODITIES

BRENT TECHS: (M5) Trend Structure Remains Bearish     

• RES 4: $77.75 - High Jan 20  
• RES 3: $76.26 - High Feb 20
• RES 2: $70.83/75.47 - 50-day EMA / High Apr 2 and a bull trigger
• RES 1: $67.95 - Low Mar 5            
• PRICE: $64.89 @ 06:56 BST Apr 14  
• SUP 1: $58.40 - Low Apr 9    
• SUP 2: $58.85 - 2.000 proj of the Feb 20 - Mar 5 - Apr 2 price swing
• SUP 3: $56.89 - 2.236 proj of the Feb 20 - Mar 5 - Apr 2 price swing
• SUP 4: $55.00 - Round number support

Brent futures continue to trade above last week’s high. For now, the latest bounce is considered corrective and this is allowing a recent oversold condition to unwind. The primary trend direction remains down and a resumption of weakness would open $56.89, a Fibonacci projection. On the upside, initial firm resistance to watch is seen at $67.95, the Mar 5 low. Resistance at the 50-day EMA, is at $70.83.       

WTI TECHS: (K5) Trend Signals Remain Bearish                           

• RES 4: $74.66 - High Jan 22  
• RES 3: $72.91 - High Feb 11
• RES 2: $67.56/72.28 - 50-day EMA / High Apr 2 and key resistance
• RES 1: $64.85 Low Mar 5 low and a recent breakout level.  
• PRICE: $61.68 @ 07:14 BST Apr 14 
• SUP 1: $55.12 - Low Apr 9
• SUP 2: $54.26 - 2.236 proj of the Feb 11 - Mar 5 - Apr 2 price swing
• SUP 3: $56.81 - 2.382 proj of the Jan 15 - Feb 4 - 11 price swing
• SUP 4: $50.00 - Psychological round number  

A bearish theme in WTI futures remains intact and last Wednesday's rally is - for now - considered corrective. The move higher is allowing an oversold trend condition to unwind. Recent weakness has resulted in the breach of a number of important support levels, reinforcing a bearish threat. A resumption of the bear cycle would open $54.26, a Fibonacci projection. Initial firm resistance is seen at $64.85, the Mar 5 low and a recent breakout level.                

GOLD TECHS: Northbound                        

• RES 4: $3347.7 - 1.00 proj of the Feb 28 - Apr 3 - Apr 7 price swing   
• RES 3: $3300.0 - Round number resistance
• RES 2: $3291.8 - 1.00 proj of the Feb 28 - Apr 3 - Apr 7 price swing   
• RES 1: $3245.5 - High Apr 11        
• PRICE: $3229.7 @ 07:18 BST Apr 14 
• SUP 1: $3045.1 - 20-day EMA  
• SUP 2: $2956.7/2960.9 - Low Apr 7 / 50-day EMA 
• SUP 3: $2880.3 - Low Mar 10 
• SUP 4: $2832.7 - Low Feb 28 

The trend condition in Gold remains bullish and last week’s rally confirms and reinforces this condition. The yellow metal has traded through $3167.8, the Apr 3 high, to resume the primary uptrend and trade to fresh all-time highs. Moving average studies are unchanged, they remain in a bull-mode position highlighting a dominant uptrend. Initial firm support lies at 3063.4, the 20-day EMA. Sights are on 3291.8, a Fibonacci projection.                        

SILVER TECHS: Monitoring Resistance At The 50-Day EMA         

• RES 4: $34.903 - High Oct 23 ‘24 and the bull trigger 
• RES 3: $34.590 - High Mar 28 
• RES 2: $33.117 - 76.4% retracement of the Mar 28 - Apr 7 bear leg  
• RES 1: $32.313 - High Appr 7                                      
• PRICE: $32.064 @ 08:04 BST Apr 14
• SUP 1: $30.57728.351 - Low Apr 10 / 7 and the bear trigger                
• SUP 2: $27.686 - Low Sep 6 ‘24 
• SUP 3: $27.180 - Low Aug 14 ‘24   
• SUP 4: $26.451 - Low Aug 8 ‘24 and a key support   

Silver is holding on to last week’s gains. For now, the recent move higher appears corrective. The metal on Apr 7, traded through support at $28.748, the Dec 19 low. A clear break of this level would signal scope for a continued sell-off, towards $27.686, the Sep 6 ‘24 low. On the upside, resistance to watch is $32.208 the 50-day EMA. It has been pierced, a clear break of it would alter the picture and highlight a stronger reversal.