MNI DAILY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - Stocks Start Bearishly

Price Signal Summary – Stocks Start Bearishly

• The S&P E-Minis contract is starting the week on a bearish note, extending the pullback from Friday’s high. Key short-term support to watch lies at 5961.75, the Jan 16 low. For now, the move down appears corrective, however, a breach of 5961.75 would strengthen a bearish threat. A bull cycle in the Eurostoxx 50 futures contract remains intact and the move lower from Friday’s high, is considered corrective. The move down is allowing an overbought trend condition to unwind.
• Friday’s gains in GBPUSD reinforces current bullish conditions. The pair has traded cleanly through the 20-day EMA, marking an extension of the reversal that started Jan 13. The break higher exposes the 50-day EMA, at 1.2520 and an important resistance. The primary trend condition in USDJPY is unchanged, it remains bullish and the latest pullback appears corrective. Moving average studies are in a bull-mode position, highlighting a dominant uptrend. Recent price action in USDCAD highlights resistance at 1.4516, the Jan 21 low, and support at 1.4261, the Jan 20 low. Both levels also represent important short-term directional triggers.
• Gold traded higher last week. A bull cycle remains in play and the recent breach of resistance at 2726.2, the Dec 12 high, reinforces current conditions. Sights are on $2790.1, the Oct 31 all-time high. The trend structure in WTI futures is bullish despite the recent pullback. The move down appears corrective and is allowing an overbought trend reading to unwind. The 20-day EMA, at $74.28, has been pierced. A clear break of it would signal scope for a deeper retracement.
• The pullback from recent highs in Bund futures appear corrective and a short-term bull cycle remains in play for now. The Jan 15 rally highlighted a reversal signal - a bullish engulfing candle. The medium-term trend condition in Gilt futures remains bearish. However, recent gains continue to highlight a corrective phase and signal scope for a continuation higher near-term. Last week’s climb reinforces current conditions.

FOREIGN EXCHANGE    

EURUSD TECHS: Trades Through The 50-Day EMA     

• RES 4: 1.0696 50.0% retracement of the Sep 25 - Jan 13 bear leg 
• RES 3: 1.0630 High Dec 06
• RES 2: 1.0574 38.2% retracement of the Sep 25 - Jan 13 bear leg
• RES 1: 1.0521 High Jan 27
• PRICE: 1.0461 @ 06:19 GMT Jan 27
• SUP 1: 1.0377 20-day EMA  
• SUP 2: 1.0260 Low Jan 15 
• SUP 3: 1.0178 Low Jan 13 and the bear trigger 
• SUP 4: 1.0138 1.764 proj of the Sep 25 - Oct 23 - Nov 5 price swing  

EURUSD remains in a short-term bull cycle - a correction. Last week’s gains resulted in a breach of the 50-day EMA, at 1.0457. The break higher strengthens short-term bullish conditions and signals scope for a continuation near-term. Sights are on 1.0574, a Fibonacci retracement point. Initial support to watch is 1.0377, the 20-day EMA. A reversal lower and a move through the EMA would signal a possible reversal.   

GBPUSD TECHS: Approaching The 50-Day EMA    

• RES 4: 1.2610 38.2% retracement of the Sep 26 ‘24 - Jan 13 swing 
• RES 3: 1.2576 High Jan 7     
• RES 2: 1.2520 50-day EMA 
• RES 1: 1.2502 High Jan 24 
• PRICE: 1.2458 @ 06:37 GMT Jan 27
• SUP 1: 1.2294 Low Jan 23  
• SUP 2: 1.2229/2100 Low Jan 21 / 10 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: 1.2087 0.764 proj of the Sep 26 - Nov 22 - Dec 6 price swing
• SUP 4: 1.2037 Low Oct 4 ‘23 and a key support     

Friday’s gains in GBPUSD reinforces current bullish conditions. The pair has traded cleanly through the 20-day EMA, marking an extension of the reversal that started Jan 13. The break higher exposes the 50-day EMA, at 1.2520 and an important resistance. Clearance of the average would highlight a stronger bull cycle. The medium-term trend remains bearish. A reversal lower would refocus attention on 1.2100, the Jan 10 low and bear trigger.        

EURGBP TECHS: Support Remains Intact             

• RES 4: 0.8545 High Aug 21  
• RES 3: 0.8530 76.4% retracement of the Aug 8 - Dec 19 downleg 
• RES 2: 0.8494 High Aug 26 ‘24
• RES 1: 0.8474 High Jan 20 and the bull trigger 
• PRICE: 0.8399 @ 06:42 GMT Jan 27
• SUP 1: 0.8386 20-day EMA   
• SUP 2: 0.8354 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: 0.8284 Low Jan 8
• SUP 4: 0.8263 Low Dec 31

A bull cycle in EURGBP remains intact and the latest pullback appears to be a correction. Moving average studies are in a bull-mode position, highlighting a dominant short-term uptrend. Support levels to watch are; 0.8386, the 20-day EMA, and 0.8354, the 50-day EMA. A clear breach of this support zone would highlight a stronger reversal. The bull trigger is at 0.8474, the Jan 20 high. A move through this level would resume the uptrend. 

USDJPY TECHS: Uptrend Remains Intact 

• RES 4: 159.45 High Jul 12  
• RES 3: 159.26 0.618 proj of the Sep 16 - Nov 15 - Dec 3 price swing
• RES 2: 158.08/87 High Jan 15 / 10 and the bull trigger 
• RES 1: 156.82 50.0% retracement of the Jan 10 - 21 bear leg      
• PRICE: 156.03 @ 06:54 GMT Jan 27
• SUP 1: 155.15/154.97 50-day EMA / Trendline drawn from Sep 16 low
• SUP 2: 154.44 Low Dec 19
• SUP 3: 153.76 50.0% retracement of the Dec 3 - Jan 10 bull leg  
• SUP 4: 153.16 Low Dec 17    

The primary trend condition in USDJPY is unchanged, it remains bullish and the latest pullback appears corrective. Moving average studies are in a bull-mode position, highlighting a dominant uptrend. Support to watch is 155.15, the 50-day EMA (pierced), and 154.97, a trendline drawn from the Sep 16 ‘24 high. A clear breach of both levels would highlight a stronger reversal. Key resistance and the bull trigger is 158.87, the Jan 10 high.      

EURJPY TECHS: Key Resistance Remains Intact                    

• RES 4: 165.43 High Nov 8 
• RES 3: 164.90 High Dec 30 and a key short-term resistance  
• RES 2: 164.55 High Jan 7
• RES 1: 164.08 High Jan 24
• PRICE: 162.91 @ 07:10 GMT Jan 27 
• SUP 1: 160.96/159.73 Low Jan 21 / 17 and key short-term support     
• SUP 2: 159.51 61.8% retracement of the Dec 3 - 30 bull cycle   
• SUP 3: 158.67 Low Dec 11
• SUP 4: 158.24 76.4% retracement of the Dec 3 - 30 bull cycle

EURJPY is trading closer to its recent highs. The latest recovery resulted in breach of resistance at 162.89, the Jan 15 high. This undermines a recent bearish theme and highlights scope for an extension higher near term, towards key resistance at 164.90, the Dec 30 high. Key short-term support has been defined at 159.73, the Jan 17 low. A reversal lower and a break of this level would reinstate the recent bearish threat.             

AUDUSD TECHS: Tests Resistance At The 50-Day EMA     

• RES 4: 0.6441 38.2% retracement of the Sep 30 - Jan 13 downleg  
• RES 3: 0.6429 High Dec 12               
• RES 2: 0.6384 High Dec 13  
• RES 1: 0.6326/6331 50-day EMA / High Jan 24
• PRICE: 0.6279 @ 07:59 GMT Jan 27 
• SUP 1: 0.6252 20-day EMA     
• SUP 3: 0.6165/31 Low Jan 17 / 13 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: 0.6100 Round number support
• SUP 4: 0.6045 1.500 proj of the Sep 30 - Nov 6 - 7 price swing

A medium-term bearish trend condition in AUDUSD remains intact and the latest recovery appears corrective. The pair traded higher last week and in the process pierced resistance at 0.6326, the 50-day EMA. A clear break of the EMA would strengthen a short-term bullish condition and open 0.6384, the Dec 13 high. The key support and bear trigger has been defined at 0.6131, the Jan 13 low. 

USDCAD TECHS: Trend Needle Points North  

• RES 4: 1.4655 2.0% 10-dma envelope
• RES 3: 1.4564 3.500 proj of the Oct 17 - Nov 1 - 6 price swing
• RES 2: 1.4539 3.382 proj of the Oct 17 - Nov 1 - 6 price swing
• RES 1: 1.4516 High Jan 21  
• PRICE: 1.4391 @ 08:05 GMT Jan 27 
• SUP 1: 1.4261 Low Jan 20
• SUP 2: 1.4248 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: 1.4120 Low Dec 11 
• SUP 4: 1.4011 Low Dec 5

Recent price action in USDCAD highlights resistance at 1.4516, the Jan 21 low, and support at 1.4261, the Jan 20 low. Both levels also represent important short-term directional triggers. The trend condition remains bullish and a clear breach of 1.4516 would confirm a resumption of the bull cycle. For bears, a move through 1.4261 and 1.4248, the 50-day EMA, would instead highlight a possible reversal.      

FIXED INCOME

BUND TECHS: (H5) Resistance At The 20-Day EMA Is Intact For Now     

• RES 4: 133.86 High Jan 2              
• RES 3: 133.31 50-day EMA 
• RES 2: 132.57 High Jan 6
• RES 1: 132.15/22 20-day EMA / High Jan 22                 
• PRICE: 131.59 @ 05:57 GMT Jan 27
• SUP 1: 131.00 Low Jan 16 / 24        
• SUP 2  131.00/130.28 Low Jan 16 / Low Jan 15 and the bear trigger           
• SUP 3: 130.44 Low Jul 5 ‘24 (cont)
• SUP 4: 130.23 Low Jul 3 ‘24 (cont)      

The pullback from recent highs in Bund futures appear corrective and a short-term bull cycle remains in play for now. The Jan 15 rally highlighted a reversal signal - a bullish engulfing candle. It continues to suggest scope for a corrective phase that is allowing an oversold trend condition to unwind. Sights are on 132.15, the 20-day EMA. A clear breach of the average would strengthen the bullish theme. The bear trigger is at 130.28, the Jan 15 low.                       

BOBL TECHS: (H5) Corrective Cycle Intact    

• RES 4: 117.820 High Jan 3          
• RES 3: 117.659 50-day EMA    
• RES 2: 117.490 Low Dec 30  
• RES 1: 117.163/180 20-day EMA / High Jan 22                            
• PRICE: 116.800 @ 06:11 GMT Jan 27  
• SUP 1: 116.550/280 Low Jan 24 / Low Jan 14 / 15 and bear trigger                
• SUP 2: 116.210 Low Jul 12 2024 (cont) 
• SUP 3: 115.980 Low Jul 11 ‘24 (cont)
• SUP 4: 115.745 1.50 proj of the Oct 1 - 31 - Dec 2 ‘24 price swing     

A short-term corrective phase in Bobl futures remains in play - for now - despite the pullback from recent highs. The Jan 15 rally highlighted a reversal and the start of the correction. An extension higher would allow an oversold trend condition to unwind. Key short-term resistance is seen at 117.163, the 20-day EMA. On the downside, a break of 116.280, Jan 14 / 15 low, would resume the downtrend.          

SCHATZ TECHS: (H5) Corrective Phase Still In Play              

• RES 4: 107.065 High Jan 2
• RES 3: 106.965 High Jan 3  
• RES 2: 106.695 High Jan 21 / 22
• RES 1: 106.707 20-day EMA      
• PRICE: 106.525 @ 06:01 GMT Jan 27   
• SUP 1: 106.450/435 Low Jan 24 / 15 and the bear trigger             
• SUP 2: 106.375 Low Oct 31  (cont) and a key support
• SUP 3: 106.342 2.764 proj of the Dec 2 - 6 - 12 price swing
• SUP 4: 106.255 3.000 proj of the Dec 2 - 6 - 12 price swing

A medium-term bear cycle in Schatz futures remains intact and recent gains appear corrective. The Jan 15 recovery highlighted a reversal and the start of the corrective phase. Key short-term resistance at 106.707, the 20-day EMA, remains intact for now. On the downside, 106.435, the Jan 15 low has been defined as the bear trigger. Clearance of this level would confirm a resumption of the downtrend.                                      

GILT TECHS: (H5) Holding On To Its Recent Highs         

• RES 4: 93.64 61.8% retracement of the Dec 3 - Jan 13 bear leg  
• RES 3: 93.09 High Dec 20    
• RES 2: 92.75 50.0% retracement of the Dec 3 - Jan 13 bear leg
• RES 1: 92.52 High Jan 22               
• PRICE: 91.91 @ Close Jan 24
• SUP 1: 91.10 Low Jan 20                               
• SUP 2: 89.68/88.96 Low Jan 15 / 13 and the bear trigger 
• SUP 3: 88.87 2.764 proj of the Dec 20 -27 - Jan 2 price swing
• SUP 4: 88.53 3.000 proj of the Dec 20 -27 - Jan 2 price swing

The medium-term trend condition in Gilt futures remains bearish. However, recent gains continue to highlight a corrective phase and signal scope for a continuation higher near-term. Last week’s climb reinforces current conditions. The 20-day EMA, at 91.70, has been breached. The focus is on 92.75, a Fibonacci retracement point. The bear trigger has been defined at 88.96, the Jan 13 low. Initial support is at 91.10, the Jan 20 low.                      

BTP TECHS: (H5) Resistance Hold For Now                          

• RES 4: 122.85 High Dec 11     
• RES 3: 120.98 61.8% retracement of the Dec 11 - Jan 13 bear leg   
• RES 2: 120.45 High Jan 2   
• RES 1: 119.81 50-day EMA  
• PRICE: 118.86 @ Close Jan 27 
• SUP 1: 118.27/117.16 Low Jan 16 / 13 and the bear trigger          
• SUP 2: 116.59 76.4% retrace of the Jun - Dec ‘24 bull cycle (cont)
• SUP 3: 116.07 Low Jul 8 ‘24 (cont)
• SUP 4: 115.45 Low Jul 3 ‘24 (cont)     

The latest rally in BTP futures highlights a corrective phase. The 20-day EMA has been breached and this exposes the next firm resistance at 119.81, the 50-day EMA. Clearance of the 50-day average would strengthen a bullish condition. The medium-term trend condition remains bearish and the pullback from Wednesday’s high may be an early reversal signal. The bear trigger has been defined at 117.16, the Jan 13 low.             

EQUITIES

EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: (H5) Corrective Pullback                

• RES 4: 5335.43 1.618 proj of the Nov 21 - Dec 9 - 20 price swing
• RES 3: 5327.90 1.764 proj of the Dec 20 - Jan 8 - 13 price swing      
• RES 2: 5298.50 1.500 proj of the Nov 21 - Dec 9 - 20 price swing
• RES 1: 5276.00 High Jan 24          
• PRICE: 5178.00 @ 06:33 GMT Jan 27  
• SUP 1: 5146.00 Low Jan 21           
• SUP 2: 5086.38 20-day EMA    
• SUP 3: 5005.46 50-day EMA
• SUP 4: 4931.00 Low Jan 13 and a key short-term support  

A bull cycle in the Eurostoxx 50 futures contract remains intact and the move lower from Friday’s high, is considered corrective. The move down is allowing an overbought trend condition to unwind. Moving average studies are in a bull-mode set-up that highlights a dominant uptrend. The first important support to watch is 5086.38, the 20-day EMA. A resumption of the uptrend would open 5298.50, a Fibonacci projection.          

E-MINI S&P: (H5) Monitoring Support         

• RES 4: 6200.00 Round number resistance   
• RES 3: 6178.75 High Dec 6 and key resistance  
• RES 2: 6163.75 High Dec 16
• RES 1: 6162.28 High Jan 24             
• PRICE: 6038.50 @ 07:25 GMT Jan 27 
• SUP 1: 6008.86/5961.75 50-day EMA / Low Jan 16         
• SUP 2: 5943.94 61.8% retracement of the Jan 13 - 24 bull leg 
• SUP 3: 5892.37 76.4% retracement of the Aug 5 - Dec 6 bull leg
• SUP 4: 5809.00 Low Jan 13 and a key support 

The S&P E-Minis contract is starting the week on a bearish note, extending the pullback from Friday’s high. Key short-term support to watch lies at 5961.75, the Jan 16 low. For now, the move down appears corrective, however, a breach of 5961.75 would strengthen a bearish threat and signal scope for a deeper retracement. This would open 5943.94, a Fibonacci retracement. Key resistance is unchanged at 6178.75, the Dec 6 high.  

COMMODITIES

BRENT TECHS: (H5) Pierces The 20-Day EMA                    

• RES 4: $85.85 - 1.382 proj of the Sep 10 - Oct 7 - 29 price swing    
• RES 3: $84.63 - High Apr 12 ‘24 and a key M/T resistance
• RES 2: $83.79 - High Jul 5 and a key resistance
• RES 1: $82.63 - High Jan 15           
• PRICE: $77.97 @ 07:06 GMT Jan 27 
• SUP 1: $77.54 - Intraday low     
• SUP 2: $75.96 - 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: $71.59 - Low Dec 20
• SUP 4: $70.52 - Low Dec 6 

Brent futures remain in an uptrend despite the latest pullback - a correction. Short-term support at $78.04, the 20-day EMA, has been pierced. The current pullback is allowing an overbought condition to unwind and a clear breach of the 20-day average would expose $75.96, the 50-day EMA. A reversal higher would refocus attention on the bull trigger at $82.63, the Jan 15 high. Clearance of this level resumes the uptrend.              

WTI TECHS: (H5) Unwinding An Overbought Condition              

• RES 4: $83.40 - 76.4% retrace of the Jul 5 - Sep 10 bear leg (cont)    
• RES 3: $81.26 - 3.382 proj of the Nov 18 - 22 - Dec 6 price swing  
• RES 2: $80.63 - 3.236 proj of the Nov 18 - 22 - Dec 6 price swing
• RES 1: $79.48 - High Apr 12 ‘24 and a key resistance   
• PRICE: $74.21 @ 07:15 GMT Jan 27 
• SUP 1: $73.67 - Intraday low      
• SUP 2: $72.11 - 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: $68.05 - Low Dec 20
• SUP 4: $66.55 - Low Dec 6

The trend structure in WTI futures is bullish despite the recent pullback. The move down appears corrective and is allowing an overbought trend reading to unwind. The 20-day EMA, at $74.28, has been pierced. A clear break of it would signal scope for a deeper retracement and expose the 50-day EMA, at $72.11. A reversal higher would highlight the end of the correction and refocus attention on $79.48, the Apr 12 ‘24 high and a key resistance.              

GOLD TECHS: Sights Are On The All-Time High          

• RES 4: 2817.6 - 1.236 proj of the Nov 14 - Dec 12 - 19 price swing     
• RES 3: $2800.0 - Round number resistance  
• RES 2: $2790.1 - Oct 31 ‘24 all-time high   
• RES 1: $2786.0 - HIgh Jan 24      
• PRICE: $2752.9 @ 07:21 GMT Jan 27
• SUP 1: $2698.2/2668.8 - 20- and 50-day EMA values   
• SUP 2: $2614.8/2583.6 - Low Jan 6 / Low Dec 19
• SUP 3: $2564.4 - Low Nov 18 
• SUP 4: $2536.9 - Low Nov 14 and a key support 

Gold traded higher last week. A bull cycle remains in play and the recent breach of resistance at 2726.2, the Dec 12 high, reinforces current conditions. Sights are on $2790.1, the Oct 31 all-time high. A break of this hurdle would confirm a resumption of the primary uptrend. On the downside, the first key support to watch is $2668.8, the 50-day EMA. A reversal lower and a breach of this average would reinstate a bearish threat.                  

SILVER TECHS: Holding On To The Bulk Of Its Recent Gains                    

• RES 4: $34.903 - High Oct 23 and the bull trigger  
• RES 3: $33.125 - High Nov 1 
• RES 2: $32.338 - High Dec 12 and a key resistance  
• RES 1: $31.022 - High Jan 24                              
• PRICE: $30.159 @ 08:12 GMT Jan 27  
• SUP 1: $29.509/28.748 - Low Jan 13 / Low Dec 19 and bear trigger        
• SUP 2: $28.446 - 76.4% retracement of the Aug 8 - Oct 23 bull cycle 
• SUP 3: $27.686 - Low Sep 6 
• SUP 4: $26.451 - Low Aug 8  

A bear cycle in Silver that started Oct 23 last year remains in play and recent gains still appear corrective. The metal is holding on to its latest gains and this does suggest scope for a continuation near-term. An extension would expose key resistance at $32.338, the Dec 12 high. Clearance of this level would signal a reversal. On the downside, support to watch is $29.509, the Jan 13 low, and $29.748, the Dec 19 low and the bear trigger.