MNI ECB Preview - March 2024: Still On Hold, But Inching Closer To A Cut
Mar-05 14:00By: Bruce Jeffery
Still On Hold, But Inching Closer to a Cut
- There is no indication from the GC that an imminent cut is coming and with policymakers still waiting on Q1 wage data, the March ECB meeting will be a relatively low-key event.
- However, updated staff macroeconomic projections (likely showing slightly weaker inflation and economic activity) and the press conference provide an opportunity for the ECB to hint more strongly at the prospect of cuts on the near horizon.
- Given the very cautious approach to easing by the ECB, with the GC wanting sufficient confirmatory evidence from inflation and wages, we stick with our expectation that the first policy rate cut will be delivered in June.
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