MNI EGB Issuance, Redemption and Cash Flow Matrix – W/C 21 Apr

Download Full Report Here: EZ250421.pdf

The PDF contains a detailed breakdown of the next 2 weeks of issuance, a recap of this week's issuance and tables showing cash flows over the upcoming weeks.

• Slovakia, Germany and Italy are all due to hold auctions in the upcoming week.
• There is also the potential for Austrian, Belgian and Finnish syndications in upcoming weeks, although the timing of these are more uncertain than usual given the recent market volatility.
• We look for estimated gross issuance for the week of E16.4bln, down from E34.0bln this week.
• The upcoming week April sees redemptions of E9.6bln, E9.1bln of which is from a formerly 4-year Austrian RAGB and E0.5bln is from a formerly 5-year Austrian fixed USD bond.
• Coupon payments for the week total E9.8bln of which E9.1bln are French and E0.4bln are Belgian.
• This leaves estimated net flows for the week at negative E2.9bln, versus positive E11.6bln this week.

Supply Next Week

• On Tuesday, Slovakia will hold a SlovGB auction. On offer will be the 3.00% Feb-28 SlovGB (ISIN: SK4000024683), the 3.75% Mar-34 SlovGB (ISIN: SK4000024865), the 3.75% Feb-35 SlovGB (ISIN: SK4000022539) and the 2.00% Oct-47 SlovGB (ISIN: SK4120013400). The auction is being held on Tuesday due to the Easter Monday holiday.
  • There will be no non-competitive auction of the 3.75% Mar-34 SlovGB and there is only E241.5mln available before the issue reaches its terminal size of E5.0bln. We would therefore expect as long as there are sufficient bids that the full E241.5mln is sold at this auction.
• Also on Tuesday, Germany will sell E5bln of the new 1.70% Jun-27 Schatz (ISIN: DE000BU22098).
• On Wednesday, Germany will return to the market to issue E4bln of the 10-year 2.50% Feb-35 Bund (ISIN: DE000BU2Z049).
• To conclude the week, Italy will hold a BTP Short Term auction on Thursday. We expect a reopening of the 2.55% Feb-27 BTP Short Term (ISIN: IT0005633794). Details will be announced on Tuesday (T-2 rather than the usual T-3 due to the public holiday).
  • Note that the BTPei line has been cancelled due to the syndicated launch of the May-56 BTPei via syndication.