MNI EGB Issuance, Redemption and Cash Flow Matrix – W/C 7 Apr

Download Full Report Here

The PDF contains a detailed breakdown of the next 2 weeks of issuance, a recap of this week's issuance and tables showing cash flows over the upcoming weeks.

• The EU is scheduled to hold a syndication while Austria, Germany, Portugal, Spain and Italy are all due to hold auctions in the upcoming week.
• There is also the potential for Austrian, Belgian, Finnish and Italian syndications in upcoming weeks.
• We look for estimated gross issuance for the week of E34.2bln, a little higher than the E33.6bln this week.
• The week ahead sees a single redemption of E23.0bln from a German Bobl.
• Coupon payments for the week total E0.5bln of which E0.4bln are from EFSF bonds.
• This leaves estimated net flows for the week at positive E10.7bln, vs E27.5bln this week.

Supply Next Week

• The EU is due to hold a syndication in the upcoming week. We pencil in the launch of a new 20-year EU-bond.
• On Tuesday, the Netherlands will come to the market to hold an auction to issue E2.0-2.5bln of the 0.50% Jul-32 DSL (ISIN: NL0015000RP1).
• Austria will also hold an RAGB auction on Tuesday to sell a combined E2.3bln of the long 5-year 3.45% Oct-30 RAGB (ISIN: AT0000A38239) and the on-the-run 10-year 2.95% Feb-35 RAGB (ISIN: AT0000A3HU25).
• Tuesday will also see Germany look to hold an auction to launch the new 10-year 2.50% Feb-35 Green Bund (ISIN: DE000BU3Z047) for E3bln.
• Portugal will hold an OT auction on Wednesday to sell E1.00-1.25bln of the 3.875% Feb-30 OT (ISIN: PTOTEROE0014) and the 4.10% Apr-37 OT (ISIN: PTOTE5OE0007).
• Thursday will see Spain come to the market, holding its second April auction a little earlier than usual due to the timing of Easter. On offer will be the 3.50% May-29 Bono (ISIN: ES0000012M51), the 2.55% Oct-32 Obli (ISIN: ES0000012K61) and the on-the-run 3.15% Apr-35 Obli (ISIN: ES0000012O67). The size of the auction will be announced on Monday.
• Italy will look to conclude the week on Friday with a 3/7/15+ year BTP auction. As we note below, we think that there is a chance that Italy holds a syndication to launch the new 7-year BTP (maturing 15 July 2032) as part of a dual-tranche syndication. If this is the case, we would expect to see the 7-year portion of this auction cancelled, if not we look for around E4bln of the new issue to be sold. We also look for a reopening of the 3-year 2.65% Jun-28 BTP (ISIN: IT0005641029) which was launched in March. We don’t have a strong view regarding the 15-50-year BTP that will be on offer alongside these issues. Details of the auction will be announced on Tuesday.