EM CEEMEA CREDIT: MNI EM Credit Market Wrap - CEEMEA (07 Mar)
Mar-07 16:18
| MNI EM Credit Market Wrap - CEEMEA (07 Mar) |
No surprises with the US jobs data today which was a relief for markets and the FED. Rates were more stable today after a volatile week and the US 10Y is currently -2bps at 4.26% and 5s/10 +2bp. No primary deals today with a few issuers on the sidelines, we expect to see some deals next week.
- Sovereign spreads marginally wider on the day 2-3bp. UKRAIN curve tightening as headlines come through that Russia is ready to agree a potential truce with conditions. The UKRAINE 10Y was -27bp, while other movers included UZBEK which was 7bp wider. Earnings season is slowly coming to an end, we only had OTP reporting today where we thought the results were solid. Looking into next week South Africa is due to unveil its budget and how it may plug the deficit.
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FED: US TSY 17W AUCTION: NON-COMP BIDS $594 MLN FROM $64.000 BLN TOTAL
Feb-05 16:15
- US TSY 17W AUCTION: NON-COMP BIDS $594 MLN FROM $64.000 BLN TOTAL
EURIBOR OPTIONS: Further ERZ5 Upside Flow
Feb-05 16:02
ERZ5 98.1875/98.4375/98.6875 call fly vs. 97.50/97.25 put spread, paper paid 1.5 on 7.5K, buying the call spread.
BOE: Sellside analyst views for the rest of the year
Feb-05 16:01
- All the sellside previews that we read look for a 25bp cut this week.
- After February, the majority of analysts (18/21) look for the next cut to be in May. Deutsche Bank expect a longer pause to August while both Morgan Stanley and TD Securities both look for a March cut (while noting heightened risks of a delay).
- In terms of 2025 outlook, over 60% of analysts (13/21) expect 100bp of cuts across the year to 3.75%. Only NatWest Markets (4.00%) looks for fewer cuts (despite this being the closest forecast to market pricing). Most remaining analysts (6/21) are equally split between 3.50% and 3.25% (i.e. considerably larger number of cuts than markets price).
- In terms of terminal rate, the majority of analysts 17/21 (81%) have their base case in a 3.00-3.75% range, almost evenly split. Other than NatWest Markets (4.00%) other outliers are to the downside. The mean terminal rate is 3.27%.
