MNI Europe Pi: Longs Evaporate In The New Year

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY:

• Structurally long positioning has evaporated across European futures contracts since the beginning of the year.
• At the start of 2025, Gilt and BTP had been in long territory but already showed signs of moving flat.
• Meanwhile, French contracts are even more clearly short than prior, while Germany remains flat/short.
• The most recent week of trade was indicative of short setting and long reduction across most Eurex contracts.
   

Full PDF Analysis:

MNI-PI28012025.pdf

• GERMANY: German contracts are in flat/short structural positioning: Bobl remains in short territory (though previously was "very short"), joining Buxl with the "short" designation. Bund has bucked the wider trend, moving to flat from short, while Schatz remains flat.  The most recent week saw shorts set and longs reduced.
• OAT: OAT is in very short positioning, maintaining the longer-term drift in that direction since mid-September (was "short" in our last update). Recent trade suggests shorts cover, however.
• GILT: Gilt structural positioning has shifted to flat vs long previously, with recent price volatility only briefly seeing a dip toward shorts. The most recent week saw some short covering.
• BTP: BTP has exited structural longs for our first update since summer 2025, with our current reading at flat. Longs were reduced in the most recent week of trade.