EUROPEAN INFLATION: MNI Eurozone Inflation Insight – March 2025
Apr-02 11:53
- While Eurozone headline HICP met expectations in March’s flash estimate, at 2.2% Y/Y, the more dovish cohort of the ECB is likely to be encouraged by the continued moderation in the year-over-year services inflation rate seen this time; its slowdown to 3.4% marks its joint slowest pace since January 2022.
- However, data including the seasonal-adjusted measures from the ECB indicate that the current pace in the category remains elevated. That could underpin the governing council’s level of weariness level after a potential April cut, which markets view as the base case for the ECB for now.
- The market reaction to the flash inflation round was mixed across key countries, with notable deviations from consensus in different countries. France surprised with a negative 0.2pp deviation (as it did last time), recording a 0.9% Y/Y headline rate, and was followed by Spain coming in at 2.5% with a -0.3pp deviation. Germany also surprised consensus to the downside, by 0.1pp at 2.3% Y/Y, but both the Netherlands and Italy came in firmer than expected (+0.1pp at 3.4% and +0.3pp at 2.1pp, respectively).
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LOOK AHEAD: Monday Data Calendar: S&P Mfg PMIs, ISMs, Fed Speak
Mar-03 11:40
- US Data/Speaker Calendar (prior, estimate)
- 3-Mar 0945 S&P Global Mfg PMI (51.6, 51.6)
- 3-Mar 1000 ISM Mfg (50.9, 50.8)
- 3-Mar 1000 ISM Prices Paid (54.9, 56.3)
- 3-Mar 1000 ISM Orders (55.1, 54.6)
- 3-Mar 1000 ISM Employment (50.3, 50.1)
- 3-Mar 1000 Construction Spending MoM (0.5%, -0.1%)
- 3-Mar 1130 US Tsy $76B 13W, $68B 26W bill auctions
- 3-Mar 1235 StL Fed Musalem on economy, mon-pol (text, Q&A)
BUNDS: Testing the 132.00 figure
Mar-03 11:40
- Some momentum selling in Bund as it breaks below 132.00, the 30yr Buxl part of the curve still leads.
- Buxl targets 126.10, the February low, and a break through could open to 124.84, the 2025 low.
- Bund is now eyeing the 131.84 gap.
- The German 5/30s sees resistance at 60.512, the 28/07/22 high.
EGB OPTIONS: RXJ5 130.50/130.00 Put Spread Sold
Mar-03 11:35
RXJ5 130.50/130.00 put spread, 20K sold at 13.5 vs. 132.25 9% delta.
