Note to readers: This update of our Nov 1 preview includes analyst expectations starting Page 28
Based on the 31 previews of the November FOMC meeting seen by MNI, analysts are unanimous that the Fed will cut by 25bp in both November and December. However all acknowledge uncertainties over the rate path in 2025, depending on both incoming data and the US election outcome.
Expected Rate Path: For 2025, there are two close clusters of expectations for cuts, with about half (and the median) expecting 100bp of cuts, and around one-quarter seeing 150bp.
For many analysts, the outcome of the Nov 5 election will play a large role in steering the rate path, with a Trump victory more likely to result in a higher terminal Fed funds rate compared with a Harris win.
Rabobank – who by far see the fewest rate cuts next year – see a 4.00-4.25% terminal rate (final 25bp cut in January) in the event that Trump wins.
Statement: Limited changes, with no expectations that forward rate guidance will be changed. Could tweak language describing the unemployment rate, and/or acknowledge the human and economic impact of recent hurricanes.
Press conference: The common theme in analyst previews is that Chair Powell is not expected to provide any meaningful guidance on future rate decisions – and will steer well clear of discussing the potential impact of the election result on macro/rates.
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