The FOMC gave away few new signals over the future rate path at the November meeting, with Chair Powell once again emphasizing data dependence in setting policy while shrugging off recent volatility in inflation and employment readings.
Overall the Fed seems to have maintained its general outlook on the economy and the path of rates since the September meeting. While the Fed's goal is to get rates into a neutral stance, "nothing in the economic data suggests that the committee needs to be in a hurry to get there."
Accordingly, rates markets were little changed, with terminal Fed funds rates seen at 3.72% (roughly 86bp of further cuts to come), roughly the same as pre-decision.
However, December cut pricing ticked up slightly, as Powell did little to suggest they were going to deviate from the plan set in September. While the Fed's goal is to get rates into a neutral stance, "nothing in the economic data suggests that the committee needs to be in a hurry to get there."
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