MNI Global Week Ahead; ECB, BOC Decisions and UK Data

Apr-13 15:28By: Emil Lundh

See below for the key events in developed and emerging markets next week:

MONDAY / WEDNESDAY - Fed's Waller and Powell Speeches

Two of the Fed's most senior leaders speak on the economic outlook in the coming week: Gov Waller on Monday and Chair Powell on Wednesday. This will be the first commentary by both since the April 9 Trump administration announced a reciprocal tariff "pause" with a large hike in the Chinese levy, and associated bond / swap market turmoil. It's doubtful Powell will shift his approach on monetary policy versus his April 4 appearance when he said "it feels like we don't need to be in a hurry" to cut rates, but there will be attention paid to whether his tone reflects those of other Fed officials who have sounded increasingly cautious about the upside risks to inflation and downside risks to growth. Additionally, any discussion of how the Fed views volatility in Treasury markets by Waller or Powell will be closely eyed.

TUESDAY / WEDNESDAY - UK Feb/Mar Labour Market and Mar Inflation Data

Both labour market and CPI data will be due for release next week. For the labour market data, continued question marks continue regarding the LFS survey while the ONS has noted that it will potentially need to revise the history of the AWE wage numbers due to a "single employer" submitting data late. Headline inflation data for February came in just a hundredth away from the BOE's headline forecast but with services 9 hundredths lower and core goods 14 hundredths lower (the latter largely due to clothing prices posting a Y/Y fall for the first time since October 2021). Energy was also softer than expected. However, this was all offset by upside surprises to food, alcohol and tobacco (FAT) prices. The early expectations that we have seen put headline CPI similar to the BOE's forecast of 2.71% again - albeit with lower services around 4.8% (1 tenth lower than the BOE's 4.93% forecast) with higher core goods, FAT and energy. We note that services inflation is not seen as quite as important as it once was by the MPC and that the Committee now pays more attention to non-energy goods too.

WEDNESDAY - China Q1 GDP Data

China's first quarter GDP is forecast to come in at +5.2%, a modest decline from Q4's result of +5.4%. With both CPI and PPI in deflation, it is difficult to see a GDP upside surprise, instead the likelihood is skewed to a slightly softer result than consensus. That said, the recent industrial production release saw improvements as did the CAIXIN PMI Manufacturing and Services and retail sales are trending in the right direction. The realities for the economy remain in the housing sector malaise where price appreciation remains limited, given the huge backlog of unsold properties. The trade war escalation likely brings forward further stimulus plans by the government with expectations growing that announcements could be imminent as the downward pressure on trade will put significant pressure on growth. We anticipate that GDP growth may be modestly lower than consensus.

WEDNESDAY - BOC Decision

The Bank of Canada is expected to hold the overnight rate at 2.75% on Wednesday April 16 (decision 0945ET), ending a streak of cuts at seven consecutive meetings. BOC Governor Macklem said in March that monetary policy would become less forward-looking and more nimble as officials attempted to navigate the uncertainty of the ongoing trade dispute with the US. With US trade policy and its ultimate impact on the Canadian economy still uncertain, and with incoming "hard" data solid but "soft" data like sentiment pointing to weakness ahead, the BoC may prefer to maintain policy steady as it awaits greater clarity over the outlook. Markets are pricing in a roughly one-in-three probability of a 25bp rate cut, with analysts' opinions similarly split. March CPI data out Tuesday could help sway a close decision.

THURSDAY - NZ Q1 Inflation Data

NZ Q1 CPI prints on April 17 and will be monitored closely given the RBNZ's focus on the inflation outlook. In February, it forecast a pickup in inflation to 0.8% q/q and 2.4% y/y from 0.5% & 2.2% in Q4, but there is now a chance this could be undershot. Higher food and travel prices in January were unwound in February and oil prices have been lower. There is a risk of stronger imported inflation due to the weaker NZD but soft domestic demand has made the pass through of higher costs difficult.

THURSDAY - BOK Decision (South Korea)

The Bank of Korea meets next week as the trade war looms large and on the news that a new presidential election must be held. The BOK cut rates at their last meeting February 25 citing concerns over slowing economic growth and weak domestic demand, also significantly lowering its GDP forecast for 2025 to 1.5%. This was the third cut in this cycle and whilst the data since has not seen vast improvement (exports have stabilized, CPI has risen marginally whilst unemployment has ticked up) the issue remains the uncertainty around the tariff outcome and its impact on the won. With political instability remaining and uncertainty over the tariff situation, pending discussions with the White House, it seems an inopportune time to cut and the leaves the BOK likely to remain on hold for now watching how the situation develops.

THURSDAY - CBRT Decision (Turkey)

Most analysts expect the CBRT to keep the one week repo rate unchanged at 42.5%. While the CBRT had steadily been lowering rates in 250bp steps since December, recent turmoil in Turkish financial markets prompted an interim meeting on Mar 20, where the central bank suspended one-week repo auctions and hiked its overnight lending rate to 46%. The CBRT noted that in order to maintain the sound functioning of financial markets, additional actions will be taken if deemed necessary.

THURSDAY - ECB Decision

The ECB is almost unanimously expected to deliver a sixth consecutive 25bp cut on Thursday, with ECB-dated OIS essentially fully pricing such an outcome and just 1 of the 58 analyst surveyed by Bloomberg expecting a hold at 2.50% (1 other looks for a 50bp cut). In the immediate aftermath of the March decision (where the policy rates were described as “meaningfully less restrictive”), April had been seen as a close call between a cut and hold. However, US President Trump’s reciprocal tariff declaration on April 2 drove a notable dovish repricing in 2025 ECB implied rates, with the initial announcement featuring more stringent tariffs than many had been assuming. Although the President has since delayed those reciprocal tariffs for 90-days, uncertainty remains extremely high and levies on autos, steel and aluminium remain in place. Taken alongside the softer-than-expected March core inflation print and weaker-than-expected March services PMI data, there appear few obstacles to brining the deposit rate to the top of the 1.75-2.25% neutral rate band. The MNI Policy Team’s recent sources piece supported such an outcome.

Date	GMT/Local	Impact	Country	Event
12/04/2025	0630/0730		GB	BoE's Greene on ‘The dynamics of monetary policy’
14/04/2025	0430/1330	**	JP	Industrial Production
14/04/2025	-	***	CN	Trade
14/04/2025	-	***	CN	Money Supply
14/04/2025	-	***	CN	New Loans
14/04/2025	-	***	CN	Social Financing
14/04/2025	1230/0830	**	CA	Wholesale Trade
14/04/2025	1500/1100	**	US	NY Fed Survey of Consumer Expectations
14/04/2025	1530/1130	*	US	US Treasury Auction Result for 26 Week Bill
14/04/2025	1530/1130	*	US	US Treasury Auction Result for 13 Week Bill
14/04/2025	1700/1300		US	Fed Governor Christopher Waller
14/04/2025	2200/1800		US	Philly Fed's Pat Harker
15/04/2025	2301/0001	*	GB	BRC-KPMG Shop Sales Monitor
14/04/2025	2340/1940		US	Atlanta Fed's Raphael Bostic
15/04/2025	0130/1130		AU	RBA Meeting Minutes
15/04/2025	0600/0700	***	GB	Labour Market Survey
15/04/2025	0645/0845	***	FR	HICP (f)
15/04/2025	0800/1000	**	EU	ECB Bank Lending Survey
15/04/2025	0900/1100	**	EU	Industrial Production
15/04/2025	0900/1100	***	DE	ZEW Current Expectations Index
15/04/2025	0900/1000	**	GB	Gilt Outright Auction Result
15/04/2025	1215/0815	**	CA	CMHC Housing Starts
15/04/2025	1230/0830	***	CA	CPI
15/04/2025	1230/0830	**	CA	Monthly Survey of Manufacturing
15/04/2025	1230/0830	**	US	Import/Export Price Index
15/04/2025	1230/0830	**	US	Empire State Manufacturing Survey
15/04/2025	1255/0855	**	US	Redbook Retail Sales Index
15/04/2025	1300/0900	*	CA	CREA Existing Home Sales
15/04/2025	1530/1130	**	US	US Treasury Auction Result for 52 Week Bill
15/04/2025	2310/1910		US	Fed Governor Lisa Cook
16/04/2025	2350/0850	*	JP	Machinery orders
16/04/2025	0200/1000	***	CN	Fixed-Asset Investment
16/04/2025	0200/1000	***	CN	Retail Sales
16/04/2025	0200/1000	***	CN	Industrial Output
16/04/2025	0200/1000	***	CN	GDP
16/04/2025	0200/1000	**	CN	Surveyed Unemployment Rate M/M
16/04/2025	0600/0700	***	GB	Consumer inflation report
16/04/2025	0600/0700	***	GB	Producer Prices
16/04/2025	0800/1000	**	EU	EZ Current Account
16/04/2025	0800/1000	**	IT	Italy Final HICP
16/04/2025	0900/1100	***	EU	HICP (f)
16/04/2025	1100/0700	**	US	MBA Weekly Applications Index
16/04/2025	1230/0830	***	US	Retail Sales
16/04/2025	1315/0915	***	US	Industrial Production
16/04/2025	1345/0945	***	CA	Bank of Canada Policy Decision
16/04/2025	1400/1000	*	US	Business Inventories
16/04/2025	1400/1000	**	US	NAHB Home Builder Index
16/04/2025	1430/1030	**	US	DOE Weekly Crude Oil Stocks
16/04/2025	1600/1200		US	Cleveland Fed's Beth Hammack
16/04/2025	1700/1300	**	US	US Treasury Auction Result for 20 Year Bond
16/04/2025	1730/1330		US	Fed Chair Jerome Powell
16/04/2025	2000/1600	**	US	TICS
17/04/2025	2245/1045	***	NZ	CPI inflation quarterly
17/04/2025	-		EU	European Central Bank Meeting
16/04/2025	2300/1900		US	Dallas Fed's Lorie Logan, KC Fed's Jeff Schmid
17/04/2025	0130/1130	***	AU	Labor Force Survey
17/04/2025	0600/0800	**	DE	PPI
17/04/2025	1100/0700	***	TR	Turkey Benchmark Rate
17/04/2025	1215/1415	***	EU	ECB Deposit Rate
17/04/2025	1215/1415	***	EU	ECB Main Refi Rate
17/04/2025	1215/1415	***	EU	ECB Marginal Lending Rate
17/04/2025	1230/0830	***	US	Jobless Claims
17/04/2025	1230/0830	**	US	WASDE Weekly Import/Export
17/04/2025	1230/0830	*	CA	International Canadian Transaction in Securities
17/04/2025	1230/0830	***	US	Housing Starts
17/04/2025	1230/0830	**	US	Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index
17/04/2025	1245/1445		EU	ECB Monetary Policy press conference
17/04/2025	1430/1030	**	US	Natural Gas Stocks
17/04/2025	1545/1145		US	Fed Governor Michael Barr
17/04/2025	1700/1300	**	US	US Treasury Auction Result for TIPS 5 Year Note
18/04/2025	2330/0830	***	JP	CPI
18/04/2025	1500/1100		US	San Francisco Fed's Mary Daly
18/04/2025	1700/1300	**	US	Baker Hughes Rig Count Overview - Weekly
18/04/2025	1700/1300	**	US	Baker Hughes Rig Count Overview - Weekly