MNI Global Week Ahead - Heavy Week Of Data; US QRA; BOJ
See below for the key events in developed and emerging markets next week:
Developed Markets
MONDAY - Canada Federal Election (MNI Preview)
Canada holds elections to its 45th Parliament on Monday, 28 April, amid a political landscape that has changed beyond all recognition since the start of the year. In January, then-Prime Minister Justin Trudeau was dealing with record or near-record low personal approval ratings and opinion polling support for his centre-left Liberal party, an increasingly agitated parliamentary caucus concerned about the prospect of an electoral wipeout, and the looming threat of a vote of no confidence in his minority administration that could lead to a snap election. In contrast, the main opposition centre-right Conservative party was 20%-25% ahead in the polls, riding a wave of public discontent with rising cost of living pressures, unaffordable housing, and a Trudeau government that had been in office for nine years and appeared out of new ideas. Its leader, Pierre Poilievre, was seen as essentially the prime minister-in-waiting.
However, two political events have changed the narrative: the resignation of Trudeau as leader of the Liberal party and prime minister after nine years in office, and the historic deterioration in relations between Canada and the United States. Trudeau’s resignation and replacement as prime minister by Mark Carney, and the aggressive tariff actions and rhetoric directed towards Canada by US President Donald Trump. The former has allowed the Liberal party to put itself forward as a ‘new’ offering, despite having held 24 Sussex Drive since 2015. The latter has seen a sentiment shift among large portions of the Canadian electorate against the US and towards vehement backing of anything domestic, whether this be industry, sports teams, or indeed the incumbent government.
This shift has seen the Liberals surge into the lead in opinion polling, with the election now viewed as Prime Minister Carney’s to lose.
MONDAY / WEDNESDAY - US Quarterly Refunding
The coming week brings the US Treasury's quarterly refunding process, split as usual into two announcements: the financing estimates for FYQ3 and FYQ4 out Monday April 28, followed Wednesday April 30 by the expected coupon auction sizes for the upcoming 3 months (May/June/July) along with associated materials. Recent market volatility has reduced the possibility that Treasury will adjust its guidance that it will keep nominal coupon auction sizes unchanged for “at least the next several quarters”, as changing this would signal an intention to increase bond supply in the near future. Additionally, Treasury Secretary Bessent has expressed little urgency to shift gears on issuance strategy, and his department will probably want to wait to see how multiple areas of uncertainty play out, including the anticipated Republican tax cut legislation and the debt limit impasse. In the meantime, tax receipts have looked strong with tariff revenues also starting to boost cash flows, further reducing the near-term urgency to adjust bond issuance.
TUESDAY / WEDNESDAY / FRIDAY - Eurozone Flash April Inflation and Q1 Flash GDP
Next week's heavy Eurozone data calendar includes flash inflation prints for April and a first look at Q1 GDP across member states.
Eurozone-wide flash inflation is due on Friday, with early Bloomberg consensus at 2.1% Y/Y for headline (vs 2.2% prior) and 2.5% for core (vs 2.4% prior). The core uptick is mostly due to a reacceleration in services inflation on base effects - Easter fell in April in 2025, but March in 2024. Meanwhile, there will be some interest in whether non-energy industrial goods inflation continues to tick higher with a growing headwind from the appreciation of the Euro since the April 2 US reciprocal tariff announcement. Country-level data mostly falls on Tuesday (Spain) and Wednesday (France, Germany and Italy), which should give a good indication of the Eurozone-wide print before Europe closes for the May 1 Labour Day holiday.
Flash Q1 GDP, due Wednesday is expected at 0.2% Q/Q, which would be in line with the ECB's March projections. The composite PMI averaged 50.4 in Q1, consistent with low, but positive activity growth. While an important release to benchmark expectations for growth heading into 2025, ultimately the Q1 data is already stale given April's US tariff impositions, and related uncertainty.
WEDNESDAY / FRIDAY - US Q1 GDP, March PCE and April NFP
There is particular uncertainty around GDP estimates for Q1, released at 0830ET on Wednesday. The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow, due a final update on Tuesday, currently sits at -2.5% annualized yet the NY Fed’s nowcast has 2.6% annualized. The Atlanta Fed’s gold-adjusted -0.4% should provide a better idea of tracking than its official estimate, accounting for significant monetary gold transfers in January and February which drove a surge in monthly imports data. Indeed, analysts appears to be of a similar view, with a median estimate of 0.3% across fourteen responses in the Bloomberg survey at typing, including latest Goldman Sachs tracking at -0.2%. In all, whilst much more uncertain than usual, there is a rough consensus for a significant pullback from the 2.45% in Q4 and 3% averaged in Q2/Q3. Domestic demand should look somewhat more robust but will be clouded by question marks over the extent to which areas of strength were driven by tariff front-running.
The monthly PCE report, which unusually follows later that day at 1000ET owing to where month-end falls, should offer a more timely update on consumer spending momentum heading into Q2. Its inflation components are expected to show a material moderation in core PCE to a ‘low’ rounded 0.1% M/M after a 0.365% M/M in February that stands a good chance of being revised up to the cusp of 0.4-0.5% M/M (making a March read-through from the earlier quarterly data more challenging).
Nonfarm payrolls growth will as always be watched closely for signs of labor market stress although weekly jobless claims suggest little sign of that. Consensus currently looks for overall payroll growth of 125k in April for a pullback from a much stronger than expected 228k in March. Returning strikers had accounted for a 15k relative boost to payrolls growth in March whilst weather was more supportive than two unusually cold months to start the year. Private growth could be a touch stronger than total nonfarm in April, with early expectations implying a 5k drag from the public sector as federal layoffs continue to weigh but not in huge size. With recent large declines in border encounters amidst stricter immigration policies still feeding through to the labor force, short-run breakeven estimates should continue to drift lower. The unemployment rate from the separate household survey should help provide some broader understanding on labor market balance. It’s seen rounding to 4.2% for a second month after last month’s fractional uptick from 4.14% to 4.15%. For context, its current cycle peak was 4.23% back in November and the median FOMC participant forecast 4.4% for 4Q25 before 4.3% for 4Q26. Fed Governor Waller on Thursday said he is more concerned about the speed at which the unemployment rate may rise: if the rate rises 0.1 points monthly, it would not be a "big problem", but if it rises 0.2pp or 0.3pp a month, "that is happening because you are seeing layoffs". He reiterated his view that tariffs are a "one time price level effect and it will pass through". As such he "will not overreact to any increase in inflation that is trivial", as "the critical thing is that it will take some courage to stare down the tariff increases" as "I have a hard time seeing" what would cause the tariff-driven inflation to persist. He notes that "if I see a significant drop in the labor market, I would expect more rate cuts and sooner."
WEDNESDAY - Australia Q1 CPI
Q1 Australian CPI data is released on Wednesday April 30 and will be an important input into the May 20 RBA decision, where a rate cut is largely expected. There are high correlations between NZ and Australian CPI data and given NZ’s Q1 has already been released, Australia may see a pickup in goods inflation, while sticky services may moderate. While the RBA prefers quarterly CPI data, the January/February trimmed mean outcomes signal that it may have returned to the 2-3% band in Q1. Headline will continue to be impacted by government electricity rebates meaning that the focus remains on core.
Despite pressure from tariffs and volatile financial markets, the BOJ is expected to maintain its policy normalisation stance, continuing to project that underlying inflation will move toward its 2% target – albeit on a slightly delayed timeline – while adhering to January’s baseline scenario. The board has held rates steady since January. Following the implementation of U.S. tariffs on April 2, markets have significantly scaled back expectations for a BOJ rate hike this year, with a 0.62% rate priced in by December.
Emerging Markets
TUESDAY - NBH Decision (Hungary)
The NBH is widely expected to keep the base rate unchanged at 6.50%. Although the headline rate of inflation slowed in March, core inflation remains at high levels while uncertainty posed by US tariff policy means it is too early for any reversal in forward guidance. Furthermore, recent commentary from Governor Varga indicates that there will be no change to the Bank's ongoing hawkish commentary yet.
TUESDAY - BCCh Decision (Chile)
The BCCh is widely expected to keep its policy rate unchanged at 5.0% for a third consecutive meeting on Tuesday, as the Board waits for more information on the impact of US tariffs. Mounting concerns about the growth outlook may bring forward the next rate cut, however, and latest survey data now point to 50bp of easing in the second half of the year.
WEDNESDAY - China April PMIs
China's economy has gotten off to a solid start in 2025, but the tariff/trade conflict looms large as we progress through Q2. This could emerge in terms of next week's PMI prints. THe consensus expects manufacturing to ease to 49.7 from 50.5. Services is forecast close to unchanged at 50.7. The China Politburo met at the end of this week and reinforced the need to further support the economy.
WEDNESDAY - BOT Decision (Thailand)
The Bank of Thailand decision is on Wednesday April 30 and given recent global trade-related uncertainty the decision is a close call. It cut rates 25bp to 2% at its last meeting in February and may follow that up with another to support growth or it may wait for more clarity on US tariffs as talks are ongoing. With 20% of Thailand's exports going to the US in 2024 worth 7.2% of GDP and the US initially proposing a 36% tariff on imports from Thailand, BoT may decide that global trade policy is significantly negative for Thailand's growth outlook and cut rates again.
WEDNESDAY - BanRep Decision (Colombia)
In Colombia, BanRep is expected to keep its policy rate unchanged at 9.50% for a third consecutive meeting on Wednesday, amid heightened external uncertainties and sticky inflation pressures. The decision may be a close call, however, as recent soft economic activity keep the door open to the possibility of a renewed 25bp cut, which would satisfy President Petro’s demands for lower rates to support the economic recovery. As such, the decision is likely to be split again, after three Board members dissented with a vote for a 50bp cut at the previous meeting in March.
| Date | GMT/Local | Impact | Country | Event |
| 28/04/2025 | 0600/0800 | ** |  SE | PPI |
| 28/04/2025 | 1000/1100 | ** |  GB | CBI Distributive Trades |
| 28/04/2025 | 1300/1500 |  EU | ECB's de Guindos Presenting 2024 Annual Report | |
| 28/04/2025 | 1400/1000 | ** |  US | housing vacancies |
| 28/04/2025 | 1430/1030 | ** | US | Dallas Fed manufacturing survey |
| 28/04/2025 | 1530/1130 | * | US | US Treasury Auction Result for 13 Week Bill |
| 28/04/2025 | 1530/1130 | * | US | US Treasury Auction Result for 26 Week Bill |
| 29/04/2025 | 2301/0001 | * | GB | BRC Monthly Shop Price Index |
| 29/04/2025 | 0600/0800 | * |  DE | GFK Consumer Climate |
| 29/04/2025 | 0600/0800 | ** | SE | Private Sector Production m/m |
| 29/04/2025 | 0600/0800 | SE | Flash Quarterly GDP Indicator | |
| 29/04/2025 | 0600/0800 | ** | SE | Retail Sales |
| 29/04/2025 | 0700/0900 | ** | SE | Economic Tendency Indicator |
| 29/04/2025 | 0700/0900 | *** |  ES | HICP (p) |
| 29/04/2025 | 0700/0900 | *** | ES | GDP (p) |
| 29/04/2025 | 0700/0900 | EU | ECB's Cipollone On Financial and Trade Fragmentation | |
| 29/04/2025 | 0800/1000 | ** | EU | M3 |
| 29/04/2025 | 0800/1000 | ** |  IT | ISTAT Consumer Confidence |
| 29/04/2025 | 0800/1000 | ** | IT | ISTAT Business Confidence |
| 29/04/2025 | 0800/1000 | ** | EU | ECB Consumer Expectations Survey |
| 29/04/2025 | 0900/1100 | * | EU | Consumer Confidence, Industrial Sentiment |
| 29/04/2025 | 0900/1000 | * | GB | Index Linked Gilt Outright Auction Result |
| 29/04/2025 | 0940/1040 | GB | BOE Ramsden At Innovate Finance Global Summit | |
| 29/04/2025 | 1230/0830 | ** | US | Advance Trade, Advance Business Inventories |
| 29/04/2025 | 1255/0855 | ** | US | Redbook Retail Sales Index |
| 29/04/2025 | 1300/0900 | ** | US | S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Index |
| 29/04/2025 | 1300/0900 | ** | US | FHFA Home Price Index |
| 29/04/2025 | 1300/0900 | ** | US | FHFA Home Price Index |
| 29/04/2025 | 1400/1000 | *** | US | Conference Board Consumer Confidence |
| 29/04/2025 | 1400/1000 | *** | US | JOLTS jobs opening level |
| 29/04/2025 | 1400/1000 | *** | US | JOLTS quits Rate |
| 29/04/2025 | 1430/1030 | ** | US | Dallas Fed Services Survey |
| 30/04/2025 | - |  JP | Bank of Japan Meeting | |
| 30/04/2025 | 2350/0850 | * | JP | Retail Sales (p) |
| 30/04/2025 | 2350/0850 | ** | JP | Industrial Production |
| 30/04/2025 | 0130/0930 | *** |  CN | CFLP Manufacturing PMI |
| 30/04/2025 | 0130/0930 | ** | CN | CFLP Non-Manufacturing PMI |
| 30/04/2025 | 0130/1130 | *** |  AU | CPI inflation |
| 30/04/2025 | 0130/1130 | *** | AU | CPI Inflation Monthly |
| 30/04/2025 | 0145/0945 | ** | CN | S&P Global Final China Manufacturing PMI |
| 30/04/2025 | 0530/0730 | *** |  FR | GDP (p) |
| 30/04/2025 | 0530/0730 | ** | FR | Consumer Spending |
| 30/04/2025 | 0600/0800 | ** | DE | Import/Export Prices |
| 30/04/2025 | 0600/0800 | ** | DE | Retail Sales |
| 30/04/2025 | 0600/1400 | ** | CN | MNI China Money Market Index (MMI) |
| 30/04/2025 | 0645/0845 | *** | FR | HICP (p) |
| 30/04/2025 | 0645/0845 | ** | FR | PPI |
| 30/04/2025 | 0700/0900 | ** |  CH | KOF Economic Barometer |
| 30/04/2025 | 0755/0955 | ** | DE | Unemployment |
| 30/04/2025 | 0800/1000 | *** | DE | GDP (p) |
| 30/04/2025 | 0800/1000 | *** | IT | GDP (p) |
| 30/04/2025 | 0800/1000 | *** | DE | Bavaria CPI |
| 30/04/2025 | 0800/1000 | *** | DE | North Rhine Westphalia CPI |
| 30/04/2025 | 0800/1000 | *** | DE | Baden Wuerttemberg CPI |
| 30/04/2025 | 0900/1100 | *** | IT | HICP (p) |
| 30/04/2025 | 0900/1000 | ** | GB | Gilt Outright Auction Result |
| 30/04/2025 | 0900/1100 | *** | EU | EMU Preliminary Flash GDP Q/Q |
| 30/04/2025 | 0900/1100 | *** | EU | EMU Preliminary Flash GDP Y/Y |
| 30/04/2025 | 1000/1200 | ** | IT | PPI |
| 30/04/2025 | 1100/0700 | ** | US | MBA Weekly Applications Index |
| 30/04/2025 | 1200/1400 | *** | DE | HICP (p) |
| 30/04/2025 | 1215/0815 | *** | US | ADP Employment Report |
| 30/04/2025 | 1230/0830 | *** |  CA | Gross Domestic Product by Industry |
| 30/04/2025 | 1230/0830 | *** | US | GDP |
| 30/04/2025 | 1230/0830 | *** | US | Employment Cost Index |
| 30/04/2025 | 1230/0830 | *** | CA | Gross Domestic Product by Industry |
| 30/04/2025 | 1230/0830 | *** | US | Treasury Quarterly Refunding |
| 30/04/2025 | 1342/0942 | *** | US | MNI Chicago PMI |
| 30/04/2025 | 1400/1000 | ** | US | NAR Pending Home Sales |
| 30/04/2025 | 1400/1000 | *** | US | Personal Income and Consumption |
| 30/04/2025 | 1430/1030 | ** | US | DOE Weekly Crude Oil Stocks |
| 30/04/2025 | 1530/1630 | GB | BOE Lombardelli At New Economics Teacher Training Launch | |
| 30/04/2025 | 1730/1330 | CA | BOC Meeting Minutes | |
| 01/05/2025 | 2300/0900 | ** | AU | S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (f) |
| 01/05/2025 | 0030/0930 | ** | JP | S&P Global Final Japan Manufacturing PMI |
| 01/05/2025 | 0130/1130 | ** | AU | Trade price indexes |
| 01/05/2025 | 0130/1130 | ** | AU | Trade Balance |
| 01/05/2025 | 0200/1100 | *** | JP | BOJ Policy Rate Announcement |
| 01/05/2025 | 0630/0830 | ** | CH | Retail Sales |
| 01/05/2025 | 0830/0930 | ** | GB | BOE Lending to Individuals |
| 01/05/2025 | 0830/0930 | ** | GB | BOE M4 |
| 01/05/2025 | 0830/0930 | ** | GB | S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (Final) |
| 01/05/2025 | - | *** | US | Domestic-Made Vehicle Sales |
| 01/05/2025 | 1230/0830 | *** | US | Jobless Claims |
| 01/05/2025 | 1230/0830 | ** | US | WASDE Weekly Import/Export |
| 01/05/2025 | 1345/0945 | *** | US | S&P Global Manufacturing Index (final) |
| 01/05/2025 | 1400/1000 | *** | US | ISM Manufacturing Index |
| 01/05/2025 | 1400/1000 | * | US | Construction Spending |
| 01/05/2025 | 1430/1030 | ** | US | Natural Gas Stocks |
| 02/05/2025 | 0130/1130 | * | AU | Producer price index q/q |
| 02/05/2025 | 0130/1130 | *** | AU | Retail trade quarterly |
| 02/05/2025 | 0130/1130 | ** | AU | Retail Trade |
| 02/05/2025 | 0715/0915 | ** | ES | S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (f) |
| 02/05/2025 | 0745/0945 | ** | IT | S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (f) |
| 02/05/2025 | 0750/0950 | ** | FR | S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (f) |
| 02/05/2025 | 0755/0955 | ** | DE | S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (f) |
| 02/05/2025 | 0800/1000 | ** | EU | S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (f) |
| 02/05/2025 | 0900/1100 | *** | EU | HICP (p) |
| 02/05/2025 | 0900/1100 | ** | EU | Unemployment |
| 02/05/2025 | 1130/2030 | * | JP | Labor Force Survey |
| 02/05/2025 | 1230/0830 | *** | US | Employment Report |
| 02/05/2025 | 1400/1000 | ** | US | Factory New Orders |
| 02/05/2025 | 1700/1300 | ** | US | Baker Hughes Rig Count Overview - Weekly |
