MNI Global Week Ahead - US and China CPI Key Releases
See below for the key events in developed and emerging markets next week:
WEDNESDAY - RBNZ Official Cash Rate Decision
The RBNZ decision is on April 9 and it is expected to continue its easing cycle with a 25bp rate cut bringing the OCR to 3.50%. Data have remained soft but signal a gradual recovery and so the MPC is likely to ease in line with its February guidance. It is the first meeting since Governor Orr unexpectedly resigned but a press conference wasn't in the schedule. There also won't be an updated forecast set.
THURSDAY - BSP Rate Decision (Philippines)
The Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (“BSP”) meets next week on the 10th to decide on the Overnight Borrowing Rate and the Standing Overnight Deposit Facility Rate with forecasters expecting a 25bps cut to each. Having cut to 5.75% in the December meeting the market expected a further cut in February, with the BSP holding citing global uncertainties. March’s CPI out today showed a further decline in prices with the month-on-month figure negative for a second consecutive month. The forecasts for next week are somewhat mixed with the majority of those surveyed forecasting a cut of 25bps, with one outlier at 50bps. We anticipate a cut of 25bps to both the borrowing rate and the standing overnight deposit facility rate.
THURSDAY - CHINA CPI
As markets await further policy action from the central bank in China, next week’s CPI will likely provide additional evidence that monetary policy intervention is needed. China releases its March CPI and PPI which whilst forecasters expect it to rise, at best it is seen a rise of +0.01 following last month’s seasonally impacted result of -0.7% . China’s PPI has not seen a positive print since September 2022 and current forecasts suggest a further decline can be expected. It is too early to expect any impact from policies announced during the National People’s Congress early in March and as such further deterioration in prices is likely.
THURSDAY - BCRP Rate Decision (Peru)
The BCRP is expected to keep its policy rate unchanged at 4.75% for a third successive meeting on Thursday, amid the significant deterioration in risk sentiment following President Trump’s tariffs announcement. Last month, the central bank signalled that it remained in a data dependent mode, keeping the door open to a potentially final cut in the coming meetings. Since then, economic activity has remained robust, while inflation came in slightly above expectations, despite slowing further last month. However, uncertainty over the external backdrop is likely to keep the BCRP cautious for now.
THURSDAY/FRIDAY - US CPI/PPI
CPI and PPI backload the week’s US economic data releases on Thursday/Friday. Core CPI is currently expected at 0.3% M/M in March in the early days of the Bloomberg survey after 0.23% M/M in Feb, although we have seen some separate unrounded estimates either side of 0.20% M/M. Some senior FOMC members have put focus on the firming in core goods inflation in the first two months of the year in tariff anticipation. That will again be in focus for March as initial tariffs on Canada and Mexico could have started to boost prices more directly before April’s announcement of “Liberation Day” tariffs. Core services will be watched for broader signs of higher cost passthrough. The latter can have a notable bearing on market reaction to the report, after the March S&P Global US Services PMI press release noted that “Operating expenses increased in March to the greatest degree in a year-and-a-half, largely attributed by panelists to the impact of tariffs. Competition however limited the ability of firms to pass on higher costs to clients via selling prices." It’s worth remembering as well that whilst core CPI slowed from 0.45% M/M in Jan to 0.23% M/M in Feb, it was driven by some idiosyncratic factors such as airfares (-4.0%), and core PCE instead accelerated from 0.30% M/M to 0.365% M/M in February for its fastest monthly pace since Jan 2024. Core PCE implications, first from CPI before forecast revisions after PPI, will as always be important.
FRIDAY - UK Monthly Activity Data
Monthly UK GDP and its subcomponents for February are due for release on Friday. An early consensus looks for a 0.1%M/M print with all subcomponents expected to be only marginally positive. Monthly GDP has been relatively bumpy with December increasing 0.4%M/M and some of that strength reversing in January's -0.1%M/M release. At its March meeting the BOE noted that it was looking for GDP for Q1 to come in around 0.25%Q/Q but that business surveys were tracking more consistently with 0.0-0.1%.
| Date | GMT/Local | Impact | Country | Event |
| 05/04/2025 | 0915/1115 |  EU | ECB's Schnabel At Economy and Finance Workshop | |
| 07/04/2025 | 2330/0830 | ** |  JP | average wages (p) |
| 07/04/2025 | 0600/0800 | ** |  DE | Trade Balance |
| 07/04/2025 | 0600/0800 | ** | DE | Industrial Production |
| 07/04/2025 | 0900/1100 | ** | EU | Retail Sales |
| 07/04/2025 | 0945/1145 | EU | ECB's Cipollone At CBDC Conference | |
| 07/04/2025 | 1430/1030 |  US | Fed Governor Adriana Kugler | |
| 07/04/2025 | 1530/1130 | * | US | US Treasury Auction Result for 26 Week Bill |
| 07/04/2025 | 1530/1130 | * | US | US Treasury Auction Result for 13 Week Bill |
| 07/04/2025 | 1700/1300 | * | US | US Treasury Auction Result for Cash Management Bill |
| 07/04/2025 | 1900/1500 | * | US | Consumer Credit |
| 08/04/2025 | 0500/1400 | JP | Economy Watcher's Survey | |
| 08/04/2025 | 0645/0845 | * |  FR | Foreign Trade |
| 08/04/2025 | 0900/1000 | ** |  GB | Gilt Outright Auction Result |
| 08/04/2025 | 0900/1100 | EU | ECB's De Guindos At Spanish Banking Association Meeting | |
| 08/04/2025 | 1000/0600 | ** | US | NFIB Small Business Optimism Index |
| 08/04/2025 | 1255/0855 | ** | US | Redbook Retail Sales Index |
| 08/04/2025 | 1400/1000 | * |  CA | Ivey PMI |
| 08/04/2025 | 1400/1600 | EU | ECB's Cipollone at ECON Hearing On Digital Euro | |
| 08/04/2025 | 1600/1700 | GB | BoE's Lombardelli on 'What can the UK learn from the US' | |
| 08/04/2025 | 1700/1300 | *** | US | US Note 03 Year Treasury Auction Result |
| 08/04/2025 | 1800/1400 | US | San Francisco Fed's Mary Daly | |
| 09/04/2025 | - |  NZ | Reserve Bank of New Zealand Meeting | |
| 09/04/2025 | 0200/1400 | *** | NZ | RBNZ official cash rate decision |
| 09/04/2025 | 0900/1000 | ** | GB | Gilt Outright Auction Result |
| 09/04/2025 | 1100/0700 | ** | US | MBA Weekly Applications Index |
| 09/04/2025 | - | US | Higher Tariffs On Imports Implemented | |
| 09/04/2025 | 1230/1430 | EU | ECB's Cipollone On Macro-Financial Stability Panel | |
| 09/04/2025 | 1400/1000 | ** | US | Wholesale Trade |
| 09/04/2025 | 1430/1030 | ** | US | DOE Weekly Crude Oil Stocks |
| 09/04/2025 | 1500/1100 | US | Richmond Fed's Tom Barkin | |
| 09/04/2025 | 1700/1300 | ** | US | US Note 10 Year Treasury Auction Result |
| 09/04/2025 | 1800/1400 | *** | US | FOMC Minutes |
| 10/04/2025 | 2301/0001 | * | GB | RICS House Prices |
| 10/04/2025 | 0130/0930 | *** |  CN | CPI |
| 10/04/2025 | 0130/0930 | *** | CN | Producer Price Index |
| 10/04/2025 | 0600/0800 | *** |  NO | CPI Norway |
| 10/04/2025 | 0600/0800 | ** |  SE | Private Sector Production m/m |
| 10/04/2025 | 0800/1000 | * |  IT | Industrial Production |
| 10/04/2025 | - | *** | CN | Money Supply |
| 10/04/2025 | - | *** | CN | New Loans |
| 10/04/2025 | - | *** | CN | Social Financing |
| 10/04/2025 | 1230/0830 | *** | US | Jobless Claims |
| 10/04/2025 | 1230/0830 | ** | US | WASDE Weekly Import/Export |
| 10/04/2025 | 1230/0830 | * | CA | Building Permits |
| 10/04/2025 | 1230/0830 | *** | US | CPI |
| 10/04/2025 | 1300/1400 | GB | BoE's Breeden at MNI Connect ‘UK economic and Financial Stability prospects’ | |
| 10/04/2025 | 1400/1000 | US | Kansas City Fed's Jeff Schmid | |
| 10/04/2025 | 1430/1030 | ** | US | Natural Gas Stocks |
| 10/04/2025 | 1600/1200 | *** | US | USDA Crop Estimates - WASDE |
| 10/04/2025 | 1600/1200 | US | Chicago Fed's Austan Goolsbee | |
| 10/04/2025 | 1630/1230 | US | Philly Fed's Pat Harker | |
| 10/04/2025 | 1700/1300 | *** | US | US Treasury Auction Result for 30 Year Bond |
| 10/04/2025 | 1800/1400 | ** | US | Treasury Budget |
| 11/04/2025 | 2301/0001 | ** | GB | KPMG/REC Jobs Report |
| 11/04/2025 | 0600/0700 | ** | GB | UK Monthly GDP |
| 11/04/2025 | 0600/0800 | *** | SE | Final Inflation Report |
| 11/04/2025 | 0600/0700 | ** | GB | Trade Balance |
| 11/04/2025 | 0600/0700 | ** | GB | Index of Services |
| 11/04/2025 | 0600/0700 | *** | GB | Index of Production |
| 11/04/2025 | 0600/0800 | *** | DE | HICP (f) |
| 11/04/2025 | 0600/0700 | ** | GB | Output in the Construction Industry |
| 11/04/2025 | 0700/0900 | *** |  ES | HICP (f) |
| 11/04/2025 | 0945/1145 | EU | ECB's Lagarde at Eurogroup Press Conference | |
| 11/04/2025 | - | GB | BoE's Saporta on 'How financial crisis reshape market and strategies’ | |
| 11/04/2025 | 1230/0830 | *** | US | PPI |
| 11/04/2025 | 1400/1000 | *** | US | U. Mich. Survey of Consumers |
| 11/04/2025 | 1400/1000 | ** | US | University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers Inflation Expectation |
| 11/04/2025 | 1400/1000 | US | St. Louis Fed's Alberto Musalem | |
| 11/04/2025 | 1500/1100 | US | New York Fed's John Williams | |
| 11/04/2025 | 1700/1300 | ** | US | Baker Hughes Rig Count Overview - Weekly |
| 11/04/2025 | 1700/1300 | ** | US | Baker Hughes Rig Count Overview - Weekly |
| 12/04/2025 | - | GB | BoE's Greene on ‘The dynamics of monetary policy’ |
